A Simple Interpretation on Gold for Times of Monetary Madness

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Another day, another beating for the precious metals. After gold and silver fell in New York trading on Friday, Asian futures markets have opened in a panic, with leveraged holders no doubt getting margin calls over the weekend. The result? Stump up more cash or sell. Clearly, selling is the preferred option.

It seems like a lot of punters are trying to pick the bottom. They’re buying in the expectation of a bounce…and when that doesn’t eventuate, more selling takes place.

In gold, we’re now closing in on the low from April at around US$1,320. Will it hold or head lower still? We have no idea. And we certainly wouldn’t be utilising the futures market to make a bet on it.

But we do know that for every seller there is a buyer, whether it’s in the futures market or the physical gold market. Some are happy that prices are again back at levels from a few years ago. They’re the ‘strong hands’ and they’re taking in what the ‘weak hands’ throw into the market.

All this reminds us of 1999. Back then you had financial market euphoria in the midst of a new internet age. The tech bubble was in full swing. Stocks — especially anything tech related — were a sure thing. They went up day after day on nothing more than hope and expectation.

Meanwhile, gold was in the doldrums…a barbarous relic well past its time. In the modern age of pets.com and new paradigms, gold was an anachronism. But as hindsight was to show, 1999 represented the nadir in gold’s long bear market.

Today, we are in a similar state of market euphoria. Everyone is jumping on the central bank bandwagon. They’re making bets that can’t lose. Downside risk has central bank protection (the Bernanke put) and the upside is unlimited.

What could possible go wrong?

Against this backdrop, institutional investors and speculators dump gold futures to go long S&P futures. And it’s a great trade at the moment. It ‘makes sense’. As in 1999, who sees the sense in owning gold when faith in central banks (or new technology) seems all-pervasive? Right now, it seems like an unnecessary hedge. SELL SELL SELL!

That may be the mindset of the speculator, but it’s a different story for the physical gold advocate. According to reports, physical gold demand is as strong as ever in India and China. And last months’ price plunge led to huge demand from the ‘retail’ investor all around the world.

So while the ‘institutional imperative’ (Warren Buffett’s reference to the short term pressure that institutions face to ‘do something’) forces the hand of big money, the small investor takes a longer view. They see a world distorted by cheap money. They see a highly fragile financial system. You don’t get a stock market melt-up when the underlying financial foundations are sound. You get this type of price action when there is something very, very wrong with the system and the price signals and incentives it gives off.

On the face of it, it is entirely rational that markets are soaring on the back of unprecedented central bank largesse. And it is rational that speculators see less need for a hedge in such circumstances, and so they sell gold. But we are pretty confident that hindsight will prove this trade to be a very big mistake. And the biggest mistake is that most players think they can get out before everyone else.

The other similarity between now and 1999 is a little more obscure. It relates to the extremely low ‘gold forward offered rate’ (GOFO) that was prevalent in 1999 and…now. The GOFO is the interest rate one must pay to borrow US dollars using gold as collateral. Alternatively, it is the interest rate charged by holders of US dollars to obtain gold short term. The lower the rate, the greater the demand for gold, or the greater amount of dollars bidding for gold.

Last week the 3-month GOFO dropped to the lowest level since 1999 (when the three month rate actually went into backwardation…a highly unusual situation where the owner of gold gets paid to swap their gold for US dollars).

So once again, despite (or because of) falling prices, the gold interest rate structure is telling you demand for physical gold remains very strong.

But there is one important difference worth considering. In 1999 market interest rates were much more ‘normal’ than they are now. A series of recent articles in the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog argue that a super low GOFO simply reflects super low rates everywhere. It doesn’t signal strong demand for physical gold, but just an attempt by risk averse institutional money to protect capital in a deflationary environment.

It’s a complex argument, and a bit beyond our simple powers of comprehension. Being a simpleton, we tend to think the right interpretation is the simplest one. And the simplest interpretation of gold is that it will protect your wealth in times of severe monetary distortion. Full stop. End of story.

That is doesn’t seem to be doing so now is a product of markets sending wildly false price signals.

Just as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones are sending a false signal of a US economy in good health (as is the ASX200) so is the falling gold price sending a false signal about the underlying health of the financial system. And tragically, when the majority of investors succumb to this false signal, it will likely turn around warn of the opposite development.

We have no idea when this will happen, but to give your imagination a kick along, we include this comparison of gold’s recent performance with the 1970’s bull market. In 1976, the gold price fell 50% over a period of two years. The yellow line in the chart below represents the latter part of that correction. As you can see, a steep price fall was followed by a rebound, then another fall to new lows.

Gold Beating – 1976 versus 2013

Gold Beating – 1976 versus 2013
Source: Jesse’s Café Americain


This last dramatic fall obviously cleared out the last of the weak hands, and set gold up for an explosive move higher in the years to come.

So far, the 2013 move in gold is following the 1976 script. If that continues, expect new lows very soon, followed by a sharp reversal.

Don’t bet on it though. History rarely repeats exactly. We offer the comparison only to show that we’ve been here before. And also to make the comment that if you want to ride a bull market through to the end, you must first endure years of pain…of being ‘wrong’ and feeling like a fool.

The market is not so much a test of intellectual strength as emotional strength. If you don’t have conviction and belief in your position, the market will take you out the back and beat you senseless.
We’re guessing many gold investors are this week wondering when the beatings will stop…  

Regards,
Greg Canavan
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Join me on Google+

From the Archives…

Multinationals vs. the Nation State
17-05-13 – Sam Volkering

The Federal Reserve Will Panic and Climb Even Higher
16-05-13 – Bill Bonner

Survival of the Most Capital Efficient
15-05-13 ­– Dan Denning

New Australian Home Buyers Aren’t Convinced
14-05-13 – Dan Denning

What Happens When Everyone in the World has Zero Interest Rates?
13-05-13 – Dan Denning

Greg Canavan
Greg Canavan is the Managing Editor of The Daily Reckoning and is the foremost authority for retail investors on value investing in Australia. He is a former head of Australasian Research for an Australian asset-management group and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Sky Business’s The Perrett Report and Lateline Business. Greg is also the editor of Crisis & Opportunity, an investment publication designed to help investors profit from companies and stocks that are undervalued on the market. To follow Greg's financial world view more closely you can subscribe to The Daily Reckoning for free here. If you’re already a Daily Reckoning subscriber, then we recommend you also join him on Google+. It's where he shares investment research, commentary and ideas that he can't always fit into his regular Daily Reckoning emails. For more on Greg go here.
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11 Comments on "A Simple Interpretation on Gold for Times of Monetary Madness"

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watcher7
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Gold & Timing Martin Armstrong, armstrongeconomics, May 19, 2013: Bull markets I have stated many times are 7, 11, 13 or 21. Gold has three very interesting bottoms. The 1999 is the intraday low. 2000 is the lowest yearly closing. Then 2001 produces the lowest quarter closing. This is an interesting set up that is rare to say the least. So effectively, both the 11 and 13 cycles come into play since the low was not a single event. So we got the 13 year since 2012 was the highest closing but we got the intraday in 2011 as 11… Read more »
Ross
Guest

Demand for physical gold isn’t making the price so anything could happen as long as other means retain their ability to make prices.

truth and integrity
Guest
Great article. Who wants their money first! When people realize there is no return on equity in the stocks that are escalating, it will be too late to withdraw. Everyone in the stocks will lose. The Australian stock market has only 100 stocks out of 2500 that show a 20% return on equity required for sustainability. There are no indexes or indicators that reflect any growth. The Baltic dry index is traveling at the bottom from the last ten years. US liabilities are $124T; assets are $94T; = -$30T equity = bankrupt The volume of gold in the world is… Read more »
Stillgotshoeson
Guest

I am in agreement with watcher… I am thinking the 2015/2017 period is going to be exceptional for gold (and silver)

Lachlan
Guest
Here some scenarios related to gold pricing *physical sets the price *paper manipulations create the price and anything can be achieved eg $500/oz is achieved in the next couple years while inflation is seen in other assets *paper creates volatility but physical sets the trend * The price will become irrelevant. As weapons technology advances a powerful militant government will emerge which will not be be subject to the wrath of the people. They ban private gold ownership within society which has become a petting zoo and a source of genetic material for scientific experimentation. In wastelands where terrorists hide… Read more »
Lachlan
Guest

Mr Shoes…I did scoop a little physical yesterday before the price boosted last night which was handy.However the price of my hares continues to fall and even NCM looks to be going somewhat lower. Is this a real market? NO!

Lachlan
Guest

Ha! Shoulda bought rabbits then ;)

Ronnie
Guest

Go the Greg:
The world has gone “war mad,” and money “plain nuts.”
A lady told me yesterday that the world can go to hell and the markets…because she has just retired and her pension is safe in stocks and the bank. The Government will look after everyone. (which Government.)Have a nice day love… hold the medication you will need it later.
Keep up with the facts Greg, someone has to tell the truth.

shortchanged
Guest

Up, down, what does it matter, anything beats the lousy interest rates in the UK, just keep gold. I’m with ‘shoes’.
PS. I see Aus rates are heading south, won’t be too long before they are at nothing. Then its welcome to the rest of the world.

Seamus O'Flaherty
Guest

Yes, SC, I’m with my compatriot Shoes, too. I recall that back in mid-2009, Watcher 7 was predicting a property fall of 80%. His prophecies are biblical, in tune with the rhythm of the pooliverse. Gold, mine dew, is the stuff of rainbows.

Greg Dooley
Guest
Long time reader first time poster. Have been following DR and the sister publication MoneyMorning. Whilst his timing has been out, it seems Mr Shoes has managed to pick the current trend and much of what he has said previously on here does seem to be coming to pass. I think he has done some dough though with some of his share purchases he has done and posted on here. The worsening economic conditions though appear to be coming to fruition. I will keep watching with interest. You seemed to disappear from here for a bit though Mr Shoes. There… Read more »
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