Australian Banks on the Run

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Yesterday’s price action in the market was boring and uninformative. It doesn’t have anything useful to tell us about the things that really matter. For that reason we’re going to ignore it and first focus on what really matters to a business: earnings.

After dinner last night on George Street your editor happened to look up at one of the big signs on top of Sydney’s CBD skyscrapers. The bright red one said ‘NAB’. We wondered if NAB’s $1.2 billion second quarter profit would have been larger if it hadn’t spent money on such a vain and presupposing sign.

You can’t feel too bad for NAB. Banking $1.2 billion in a quarter isn’t bad at all. But the Aussie bank’s performance, and specifically its suggestion that the current preference for cash deposits is squeezing margins, highlights an interesting investment idea. Namely, that the traditional Australian banks are about to be surpassed by their wealth management arms.

Granted, many of the commercial wealth management firms in Australia really ARE extensions of the Aussie banks, just under a different label. But the facts are the facts. And at the current pace, it won’t be long before the assets under management in the superannuation system exceed the assets on the Australian banks’ balance sheets. This raises an even more interesting dilemma.

How in the world is all that money flowing into the retirement system going to be put to productive use? That question gets a lot more urgent when you realise that the Big Four banks make up such a large portion of the ASX/200 and the market capitalisation of the Aussie market. If bank profit margins are in secular decline, there are fewer earnings to distribute to the share-holding public.

Perhaps the numbers from Commonwealth Bank will be more promising today. Or maybe they’ll confirm that banking is no longer a high-growth, high-margin business. As Jim Rickards said yesterday during his presentation at the Museum of Sydney, he’s beginning to think the only way a bank can make money these days is to cheat, lie, and steal.

Actually Jim didn’t put it quite that way. We’ll have to go back over the transcript of his remarks in a few days to get the exact quote. But he was referring to JP Morgan’s London Whale trade, the manipulation of LIBOR by banks, and a long list of offences and transgressions which seemed to confirm the point. In a low-interest rate world, the only way to make more money is to take more risk…or cheat.

Maybe the folks at the Federal Reserve should keep that in mind when they push for negative interest rates. Destroying pensioners and savers by punishing holders of cash is a proven method for inflicting pain on the diligent. It is NOT a proven method for kick-starting GDP.

Just ask the Europeans. Second quarter GDP in the 17-member Eurozone contracted by 0.2%, according to figures released yesterday. Let’s pretend those figures are accurate. What does it mean? It means Europe is running out of excuses to delay addressing the issue at the core of the system: will it shore up its banking structure with a euro wide guarantee on bank deposits and then introduce a eurobond?

It’s plodding methodically down that road. And one of the big surprises (for your editor) at least, is that Jim Rickards is fairly bullish on the euro. He reckons the folks in Germany will get over their objections to a little inflation and recognize a whole Eurozone is in their interests more than a broken one. And it’s hard to argue that the euro has been weak, given its stubborn performance against the US dollar.

Of course everything in the currency world (except gold) is relative. The euro would probably be weaker against the dollar if the Fed wasn’t doing everything in its power to trash the greenback. But as Rickards pointed out yesterday, currency wars go in waves. One great power devalues and triggers global consequences. This leads to another great power’s devaluation.

About the only country in the world not deliberately trying to weaken its currency is Australia. Rickards reckons the market has spoken and chosen the Australian dollar as a safe haven currency. He says that capital flows determine currency strength more than interest rates, fiscal deficits, and trade balances. He warns not to be so sure that the Aussie can’t get stronger.

That will be unwelcome news for a lot of Aussie exporters. In fact, the political pressure is already building for the Reserve Bank of Australia to intervene to weaken the dollar. How high can the Australian dollar go before the calls to suspend RBA independence get louder and more bipartisan? Stay tuned…

Regards,

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

From the Archives…

When the Trickle Becomes a Flood
10-08-2012 – Greg Canavan

What Central Planners Can Never Know
09-08-2012 – Bill Bonner

The Central Bank Big Bazooka in Theory and Practice
08-08-2012 – Bill Bonner

In Thrall to the Iron Fist
07-08-2012 – Dan Denning

Cracks in the Foundation
06-08-2012 – Dan Denning

Dan Denning
Dan Denning examines the geopolitical and economic events that can affect your investments domestically. He raises the questions you need to answer, in order to survive financially in these turbulent times.
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5 Comments on "Australian Banks on the Run"

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Ross
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How in the world is all that money flowing into the retirement system going to be put to productive use? The financial services index (XXJ) makes up 32% of the ASX. What are they doing with most people’s super? They are buying bank shares. Perhaps they are buying CGF shares too. They sell annuities. Done pretty good since even a Packer though that this business model was too hot for the family name and bowed out. You know annuities, those things “guaranteed” to provide a fixed rate of return no matter what happens in the markets they are said to… Read more »
Ross
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From Banking Day, Dividend machine churns at Commonwealth Bank 16 August 2012 7:16am Commonwealth Bank lifted its dividend payout ratio to 75 per cent in the 2012 full year and resolved that it would pay more of the dividend following the half year profit in future. Like in the 1890’s, as evidenced by Trevor Sykes among others, the long run view at the end of this asset price inflation adventure will show that these dividends were paid out of core capital. CBA’s ROE is said to be about 18%, how high would it be (forget capital ratios because APRA and… Read more »
truth and integrity
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Add to the 32% financial services over 35% for government employees and subsidiary commissions and you automatically have two thirds of employment in a non productive economy. The man who bakes bread and sells it to the butcher etc is productive. With every market sector on the ASX in decline except for mining; the carbon tax and MRT is putting an end to that. You may also see that there are less than 100 companies out of 2500 on the ASX that are even a remote possibility of investing in. 90% of ASX companies are in drastic decline with negative… Read more »
cam.waters
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Iam very gratefull that you blokes research and think hard about all your subjects, it gives me a lot of confidence to know that , you and your fellow parteners have the balls to publish the truth in the face of so much deliberate deception in our debt driven world, i pray you keep right on , thanks Cam.

cam.waters
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yes i do .

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