The Australian Sharemarket hasn't been kicking along at its current pace since 1987, right before Wall Street crashed - except this time we've been building up steam for four years.
Click on the chart below to open it to full view
How far would we fall if Black Monday happened tomorrow? What do you think... leave us a comment.
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Comment by Chris on 10 May 2007:
What about around 1993? There was a similar increase, it was followed by a pull back for a few years, but was not a *crash*. The market could correct, but it won't necessarily be a crash.
Comment by Jerome on 10 May 2007:
It's interesting to compare 1987 to 2007 as shown at http://www.fool.com/Features/1997/sp971017CrashAnniversary1987Timeline.htm
Comment by Allen jacobsen on 10 May 2007:
No there is no way the Australian market will come down like in 1987 -- to much money! You doom and gloom specialists are trying to talk the market down. You have been telling your readers for the last year or so about the pending Armagedden -- but the shares and indices keep on going up and up and up . I think maybe your GOLD mates are pissing in your ear -- "PSST tell the plebs its going to collapse and convince them the only answer is to buy gold "
I'm starting to adopt a contrarian approach to daily reckoning's sooth-saying in my share transactions --- here's hoping I will make some money .
Could you tell the WANKER who predicted the Americans would attack the Iranians at 6am on Good Friday needs a new crystal ball . One with the latest dual-core microchip !
I was so concerned I broke out my trusty 303 , oiled it up , filled the magazine with rounds and waited with my tin hat on --alas all for nothing and on a holy day as well!
Allen Jacobsen
Perth
Western Australia
Comment by Geoff on 10 May 2007:
Astro Cycles Guru Ray Merriman has been predicting a 4 year cycle crest before the end of June then a fall for the Dow, 20 % plus.
The ASX 200 seems to fall about half the number of points that the Dow has done in the past couple of corrections.
Are we about to see a 650 point drop in the ASX200?
Food for thought.
Comment by Ross on 10 May 2007:
Jerome, intersting article (in parts at least).
Allen, I have to agree with the sentiment. But the one thing you forgot is that in spite of this gloom you can easily make 3 times your money this year - if only you subscribe to the market report as advertised in the DR email.
While I find the daily email interesting, and print it off to read on the train each afternoon, you have to question a report that talks of prudence on one hand, but then advertises that if you subscribe to our report you're sure to make bucketloads of cash.
Geoff, astro cycles? You're kidding me right?
Comment by Bill Gardner on 13 May 2007:
To Mr Allen,
I wounder if he'd brought Gold or Oil Stock before they broke out in 2001-02?
What ever,..who cares as gold stocks had out performed much of the market since.
Best Wishes DR team.
From Bill.
Comment by Andrew on 14 May 2007:
Well we are a very long way off the fun they were having in the 1980's.
http://www.humblemoney.com/?p=228
A more realistic view of the comparison using percentage gains.
Comment by HeinzKizzvelvet on 25 May 2007:
The commodity boom is a farse. Uranium, Gold, Nickel, Iron Ore.
It's all a smoke screen. Crash coming before June.
Trust me !
HeinzKizzvelvet
Comment by HeinzKizzvelvet on 25 May 2007:
I wonder if anyone have a idea of what is happening right now behind the scenes on the market. US is playing the game once again.
October 19, 1987
In the early morning, two U.S. warships shell an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf. Combined with a myriad of economic factors, this helps to set off an unprecedented 508 point downpour in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, leaving it at 1738.74. The 22.6% deluge is the worst one-day beating the index has taken since hostilities were initiated in World War I and causes the 12.8% decline of October 28, 1929 to pale in comparison. The Dow is down 983.66 points since August 25, a 36.1% decline. Chaos reigns on the trading floor as many specialists simply give up, flooded with orders. Volume hits 604.3 million shares, almost twice the prior record of 338.5 million set on October 16. Many economists cast dire predictions, noting the 1929 crash preceded the Great Depression.
http://www.fool.com/Features/1997/sp971017CrashAnniversary1987Timeline.htm
http://www.429truth.com/
Trust me ! Before JUNE !
HeinzKizzvelvet
Comment by joe johnson on 6 June 2007:
Comment by Shadow on 16 October 2008:
Some good comments here. Glad I changed my super from "growth" to "cash" in Sept 07
Comment by Pi on 16 October 2008:
I wonder how Allen Jacobsen feels today.