I’m a bear on Treasury bonds. Prices should go down and yields should go up as the creditworthiness of the US government deteriorates.
February 4th, 2010 | Dan Amoss | 2 comments | ContinuedArchive for Dan Amoss
Dan Amoss, CFA is managing editor for Strategic Investment and a contributing editor for Whiskey & Gunpowder. Dan joined Agora Financial from Investment Counselors of Maryland, investment advisor for one of the top small-cap value mutual funds over the past 15 years.
REITs… A Thing to Avoid
The commercial real estate crisis may be the most anticipated crisis in history. But just because it’s widely anticipated doesn’t mean that the crisis won’t be destructive for REIT shares.
February 3rd, 2010 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Two More Reasons to Sell Treasury Bonds
Two more reasons to sell US Treasury bonds: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
January 20th, 2010 | Dan Amoss | 41 comments | Continued
REIT Investors Grown Complacent About Risks in Commercial Real Estate Market
The “extend and pretend” strategy did not work for Japan’s banking system, and it won’t work for the US either.
January 15th, 2010 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Stock Market Bulls Point to Leading Economic Indicators
The rising market is driving the majority of the economic data supporting the “green shoots” crowd. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which has been pointing up for a few months, is heavily influenced by the stock market.
August 13th, 2009 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Unsustainable Economic Activity
Consumer borrowing and government budget deficits both pull what would have been future economic activity into the present, while pushing the associated costs into the future. When this unsustainable behavior reaches its point of exhaustion, and people finally realize the folly of it all, employment falls, reckless investments are liquidated, and bad debts default.
June 26th, 2009 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Bank Stress Test Not Stressful Enough
Forecasting loan losses at banks is inherently speculative. Forecasting future cash flow from existing loans is also speculative. Both estimates lie at the core of this week’s leaked (and eventually announced) stress test.
May 13th, 2009 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Stock Market Collapse Can Be Explained By Panicked Forced Selling
Much of the recent stock market collapse can be explained by panicked forced selling, rather than fundamentals. Sure, we’re going to have a long, deep recession – especially in certain sectors of the economy. But you must also keep in mind that stocks are denominated in paper money. Central banks and governments are fighting this credit crunch with the greatest wave of inflation in history…
December 11th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 8 comments | Continued
Government Guaranteed Depression?
The American people voted for change, and within months, we’ll have a better idea of what kind of change we can expect. Dan Amoss explores what President-Elect Obama has in store…After an historic election and inauguration, president-elect Obama will enter office with a huge list of challenges.
November 12th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 4 comments | Continued
The Government’s Response to the Credit Crisis Will Ultimately Impact Our Lives
My week off allowed plenty of time to think about the future of this credit crisis from a much broader perspective. Driving though Vermont’s scenic Green Mountains and New Hampshire’s White Mountains, we had plenty of time to listen to audio books. One in particular – David McCullough’s excellent book 1776 – offered perspective on how far the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles…
September 19th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 4 comments | Continued