Since employment is a lagging indicator of economic activity, we learned over the years to dig deeper than the headline figure to get a read on where labor market conditions may be going.
September 10th, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 0 comments | ContinuedArchive for Rob Parenteau
Rob Parenteau is the new editor of The Richebächer Letter and the mind behind the Richebächer Society. Mr. Parenteau, an avid disciple of Dr. Richebächer, continues the legacy. Parenteau, in his own right, digs into the mind-numbing details of public financial information and macro-economic data to extract the precious insights that lead to intelligent investing - both avoiding risk and seizing opportunity.
Evidence of a Turn in the US Economy
The bounce in existing homes sales reported last week is yet one more sign that even in the most bombed-out part of the economy, there is some activity stirring.
August 26th, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 1 comment | Continued
The Challenge of a Balance Sheet Recession
In a world where Austrian School precepts held sway, the dog would be allowed to exhaust itself and start out fresh, facing less-distorted relative price signals that eventually would lead to a more productive set of behaviors. Debts that could not be supported…
July 29th, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 0 comments | Continued
Fed Trying to Push Private Investors into Riskier Asset Classes
So from a strategic point of view, we believe equity investors want and need to see stronger economic and earnings results to drive indexes higher, while bond investors need just the opposite to calm Treasury yields down.
June 3rd, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 0 comments | Continued
Suspicion the Service Sector Consumer Spending Series is Overstated
If we compare consumer spending on services with hours worked in the service sector employment report, we find a huge surge in implied service sector productivity.
May 14th, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 0 comments | Continued
“Deflation” Remains the Watchword for 2009
The message from the March/early April macro news continues to be one of the free-fall phase ending, while the economy remains in a severe recession.
April 22nd, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 1 comment | Continued
Largest Spike in U.S. Wholesale I/S Since 80s Recession
Wholesale I/S ratios tend to peak during recessions, with the bulk of the drawdown accomplished in the early recovery phase of the business cycle, when wholesale shipment growth revives.
April 15th, 2009 | Rob Parenteau | 0 comments | Continued