The rising market is driving the majority of the economic data supporting the “green shoots” crowd. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which has been pointing up for a few months, is heavily influenced by the stock market.
August 13th, 2009 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | ContinuedArchive for Dan Amoss
Dan Amoss, CFA is managing editor for Strategic Investment and a contributing editor for Whiskey & Gunpowder. Dan joined Agora Financial from Investment Counselors of Maryland, investment advisor for one of the top small-cap value mutual funds over the past 15 years.
Unsustainable Economic Activity
Consumer borrowing and government budget deficits both pull what would have been future economic activity into the present, while pushing the associated costs into the future. When this unsustainable behavior reaches its point of exhaustion, and people finally realize the folly of it all, employment falls, reckless investments are liquidated, and bad debts default.
June 26th, 2009 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Bank Stress Test Not Stressful Enough
Forecasting loan losses at banks is inherently speculative. Forecasting future cash flow from existing loans is also speculative. Both estimates lie at the core of this week’s leaked (and eventually announced) stress test.
May 13th, 2009 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Stock Market Collapse Can Be Explained By Panicked Forced Selling
Much of the recent stock market collapse can be explained by panicked forced selling, rather than fundamentals. Sure, we’re going to have a long, deep recession – especially in certain sectors of the economy. But you must also keep in mind that stocks are denominated in paper money. Central banks and governments are fighting this credit crunch with the greatest wave of inflation in history…
December 11th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 8 comments | Continued
Government Guaranteed Depression?
The American people voted for change, and within months, we’ll have a better idea of what kind of change we can expect. Dan Amoss explores what President-Elect Obama has in store…After an historic election and inauguration, president-elect Obama will enter office with a huge list of challenges.
November 12th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 4 comments | Continued
The Government’s Response to the Credit Crisis Will Ultimately Impact Our Lives
My week off allowed plenty of time to think about the future of this credit crisis from a much broader perspective. Driving though Vermont’s scenic Green Mountains and New Hampshire’s White Mountains, we had plenty of time to listen to audio books. One in particular – David McCullough’s excellent book 1776 – offered perspective on how far the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles…
September 19th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 4 comments | Continued
Gazprom, the State-Controlled Natural Gas Monopoly
The Russian government is pushing a plan to invest $1 trillion, roughly the size of its entire GDP, in modernizing its infrastructure over the next 10 years. It’s likely that some of this money will find its way to Gazprom, the state-controlled natural gas monopoly. Some suspect Vladimir Putin’s stake in the future of Gazprom extends well beyond his relationship with chairman Medvedev.
February 27th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
T. Boone Pickens Backs Natural Gas as Transportation Fuel
High diesel prices promote investment in alternatives. It makes sense to replace diesel engines with natural gas engines in many applications. So several companies and cities are remaking their truck and bus fleets to run on natural gas. Waste Management (NYSE: WMI) operates a fleet of nearly 500 gas-powered trash trucks. Several cities are shifting [...]
January 11th, 2008 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Citigroup & Thornburg Mortgage Grouping Losses into “Kitchen Sink” Quarter
One month ago at the Lehman Brothers’ Financial Services Conference, Citigroup’s CEO of North American consumer operations, Steven Freiberg, boasted, “Where you think there would be a fire — in our subprime portfolio — it actually looks pretty good.” He even provided a chart showing Citigroup’s industry-beating mortgage-delinquency stats.
Three weeks later, Citigroup (NYSE: C) announced [...]
Securitization and the Labyrinth of Cheap Credit
Credit used to be as free as love in the 1960s. But the days of free credit ended about three weeks ago… and the days of expensive credit arrived. As credit becomes more expensive, asset prices will deflate. And that will not be very much fun for investors.
During this particular credit cycle, investors might suffer [...]
