In case you missed it, the RBA cut the cash rate by three quarters of a percentage point. It’s now at 5.25%. But did you notice a hint of indecision in the comments the Bank published with the decision?…
November 5th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 0 comments | ContinuedArchive for Dan Denning
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). A specialist in small-cap stocks, Dan draws on his network of global contacts from his base in Melbourne, Australia and pens the small cap newsletter, The Australian Small Cap Investigator. He is also a contributing editor to the Australian resource investing publication Diggers & Drillers.
Australian Economy in Weak Phase
The Australian economy has entered, “a new phase of weakness,” according to a survey released this weekend by the Australian Industry Group. The report said this year’s epic financial panic has led to…
November 3rd, 2008 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued
Announcement: Welcoming in the Holidays With a Beer
Are they any DR readers in and around Melbourne interested in having a drink? During our first year at the Old Hat Factory, we held a very casual reception at a cafe near buy to celebrate the holidays and knock back a few beers with readers. Last year we did something more formal. This year, if you’re interested, we thought of reverting to the casual drinks and toasting to the end of the world…
October 31st, 2008 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
Reader Mail: Is the DR Contradictory? Are We Hustlers?
This in reference to yesterday’s DR e-mail about Kris Sayce’s top 5 small-cap rebound stocks for 2009…
October 31st, 2008 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued
Fall in Commodity Prices Will Reduce Inflationary Forces
Now to the big subject of the day. Inflation. You’d think evidence of even bigger deficits in the U.S. is clearly inflationary. But not everyone thinks so. The new prophet of doom, Dr. Nouriel Roubini, says at least four factors are setting up what he calls “Stag Deflation” (as opposed to the stagflation of the 1970s, where you had no growth and rising prices). Roubini’s four forces of Stag Deflation are…
October 31st, 2008 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued
Aussie Housing Market Actually Leads the U.S. by Three Years
There as an interesting contrast of positions on the state of the Australian housing market over the last few days. First, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino gave a speech in Sydney earlier this week in which he gave three reasons why the Australian housing market is different than the U.S. market. Don’t worry about a crash here, he seemed to be saying. Battellino says the Aussie housing market…
October 31st, 2008 | Dan Denning | 15 comments | Continued
U.S. Thirty Year Bond Hits Thirty Year Low
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Government bond plunged to its lowest level since the Feds began selling them in 1977. On October 24th, the yield on the 30-year dipped to 3.86%. Since then, it’s been rising. What could this mean? Well, it could mean that the last greatest bubble in the world—the bubble in U.S. government bonds—is bursting. Why? Bond investors aren’t generally stupid. Read on…
October 30th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
The Root of All Financial Evil
Around noon yesterday here at the Old Hat Factory, a little daemon whispered in your editor’s ear, “The bottom is in for the year of the ASX.” “Huh?” We looked around to try and spot the little green devil. He’s been in our ear before. But he was nowhere to be found. We could still hear his voice. “Think about you fool. It is now safe to be dogmatically bearish on the front page of the newspapers…
October 29th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
Stranded on a Crusoe’s Island With One Stock
A few weeks ago, you’ll recall that we told you we were reading Daniel Dafoe’s Robinson Crusoe. The question came up: if you were stranded on a desert island for ten years, what stock would you want to own for that ten years? Crusoe, in point of fact (although the story is fiction) was stranded on his Island of Despair for twenty-eight years-which is plenty of time for the eighth wonder of the modern world (compound interest) to work on your behalf…
October 28th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
Europe Faces Day of Reckoning in Emerging Market Debt
Europe, for its part, has a brewing problem in emerging market debt. Austrian banks are exposed to sovereign emerging market debt to the tune of 85% of GDP. Swiss banks have emerging market debt equivalent to 50% of GDP. It’s 25% in Sweden, 25% in the U.K., and 23% in Spain. If more emerging markets go the way of Iceland and default on debt or go bankrupt, Europe’s banking system faces major trouble. Just what we needed. More trouble…
October 27th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued