“America’s income-short, consumer-led recovery is the aberration – not the norm – in this Brave New World. It is all about ever-declining saving rates, ever-widening current account deficits, mounting debt burdens and increasingly wealth-dependent consumers. It personifies what I believe is one of the most precarious macro models that has ever existed for a major [...]
September 14th, 2007 | Dr. Kurt Richebacher | 0 comments | ContinuedArchive for Dr. Kurt Richebacher
Dr Richebacher's articles appear regularly in The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, The Fleet Street Letter and other respected financial publications. France's Le Figaro magazine once ran a feature story on him as the man who predicted the Asian crisis.
Reasons Why the U.S. Economy is Much More Vulnerable Than it Was in 2001
A study recently published by the Bank for International Settlements (Monetary and Prudential Policies at a Crossroad?) says:
“Financial liberalization is undoubtedly critical for the better allocation of resources and long-term growth. The serious costs of financial repression around the world have been well documented. But financial liberalization has also greatly facilitated the access to credit… [...]
Two Factors that Could Make or Break the U.S. Economy in 2007
With some consternation, we have been reading that U.S. Federal Reserve officials think the U.S. economy is a lot sounder today than it was at the end of 2000 and in early 2001, when the Fed abruptly reversed course and began a string of rapid interest rate cuts. One can only wonder about its reasoning. What [...]
February 2nd, 2007 | Dr. Kurt Richebacher | 0 comments | Continued
A Dubious Optimism About the U.S. Economy
From discussing politics back to discussing economics. Just as before, though, it remains a dialogue among the deaf. The great majority of economists has its eyes stubbornly focused on apparently positive features for the U.S. economy, like the sharp fall in the oil price, abundantly available liquidity, tame inflation, low and falling interest rates and [...]
December 14th, 2006 | Dr. Kurt Richebacher | 0 comments | Continued
An Economic Forecast for 2006 & 2007
On the surface, it seems that there are diametrically different views at work in the markets. While the rising bond prices and the falling commodity prices apparently suggest underlying distinct economic bearishness, the sudden surge in stock prices and persistent record-low credit spreads appear to reflect very optimistic expectations about the economy.
The turn in the [...]
U.S. Economic Recession?
After yesterday’s announcement that the Fed will not be raising rates for the third straight month, everyone assumes it’s because the economy is in such great shape. But Dr. Richebacher recommends that Americans remove the rose-colored glasses to see the U.S. economy for what it really is.
October 27th, 2006 | Dr. Kurt Richebacher | 0 comments | Continued