You get an anonymous letter on January 2nd informing you that the market will go up during the month. It proves to be true, but you disregard it, owing to the well-known January effect (stocks have gone up historically during January). Then you receive another one on Feb 1st telling you that the market will [...]
July 12th, 2007 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | 0 comments | ContinuedArchive for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Trading Stocks Based on Rare Events in the Market
The general press floods us with concepts like “bullish” and “bearish,” which refer to the effect of higher (bullish) or lower (bearish) prices in the financial markets. But also, we hear people saying, “I am bullish on Johnny” or “I am bearish on that guy Nassim in the back who seems incomprehensible to me,” to [...]
June 21st, 2007 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | 1 comment | Continued