Throughout history, no empire has managed to rule forever. Instead, empires rise to power, they prosper and spread their influence. Thereafter, they over-extend themselves and then break down in some fashion. In fact, all the glorious empires of history had one thing in common - a spectacular collapse.

Now, there can be no doubt that America ruled the economic world for the better part of the previous century. However, this powerful nation has now entered a terminal decline. The recent credit crisis and the failure of some of the largest American financial corporations is compelling evidence that the world's largest economy is well past its prime.

Today, America finds itself heavily in debt and to make matters worse, its demographics are also worsening. Unfortunately, the American leaders are attempting to postpone the day of reckoning by taking on even more debt! It is noteworthy that over the past year alone, America's federal debt increased by approximately US$2.1 trillion and its projected budget deficit over the next decade is now slated to be almost US$9 trillion! If this does not shock you, then consider the chart below which shows the total obligations of the US government.

As you can see, over the past six years, American unfunded obligations increased by almost 50% from US$79 trillion to US$114.7 trillion! Alarmingly, over the same period, American government revenue rose by only 12%! Now, you do not have to be a genius to realize that no entity can continue to increase its liabilities by more than four times the rate of its revenue. If this spending frenzy continues, commonsense dictates that at some point in the future, the solvency of the American government will come into question. When that happens, foreign capital will flee America, interest-rates will skyrocket and we will witness an epic currency crisis.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that apart from the American government, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is also in serious trouble. In an ironic twist of fate, the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund has spent so much money covering bank failures over the past three months that it has completely run out of money! This implies that there is no capital available now to insure bank deposits held at American banks.

Given the horrendous deficits and ugly debt obligations, the American government is now left with the following options:

a. Raise taxes (not sufficient to meet obligations)
b. Cut back on spending (highly unlikely)
c. Default (unimaginable)
d. Print money (only viable option)

Remember, America is the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen and the only way it can repay its obligations is through a process known as quantitative easing (euphemism for printing money). In fact, this stealth confiscation of savings is already well underway. A recent report published by the Federal Reserve revealed that the American central bank purchased half of the newly issued US Treasuries in the second quarter of this year. Needless to say, the Federal Reserve financed these purchases by creating dollars out of thin air - a short- term fix but a long-term disaster.

Let us put it bluntly; the days of American hegemony are drawing to a close and within the next two decades, China will become the world's most dominant economy.

If you are sceptical about our claim, you may want to note that twenty years ago, China's economy was worth only US$342 billion and as of last year, its GDP had grown to US$4.4 trillion; representing an annual growth rate of 13.6%. Now, if China succeeds in growing its economy by roughly 8% per annum over the next two decades, its GDP will grow to US$20.5 trillion by 2029. At that point, China may well replace America as the world's largest economy.

It is worth keeping in mind that whereas American households are up to their eyeballs in debt, their Chinese counterparts have a savings rate of almost 40%! Furthermore, at a time when America and other nations in the West are struggling to stay afloat, China's foreign exchange reserves have surged to US$2.3 trillion!

Now, we are aware that many commentators are criticising China for the sheer size of the stimulus unleashed by its leaders. In our view, this ridicule is baseless because instead of spending printed or borrowed money, at least the Chinese are spending their savings.

In any event, the stimulus applied by the Chinese policymakers seems to be working. Over the past seven months, money-supply growth in China has risen by 26% and loans have surged by 32%. In turn, this inflationary orgy is creating a residential construction boom. All this economic activity is in stark contrast to America, where despite all the policy-actions, private-sector credit is contracting.

Look. The Chinese economy is roaring along...and you can be pretty certain that the country's rapid growth will cause domestic consumption to explode. Already, roughly 900,000 cars are sold each month in China and by the end of this year, the Asian powerhouse will replace America as the world's largest market for automobiles. Interestingly, similar trends of rising consumption can be observed in various household items such as refrigerators, motorbikes, mobile phones and so forth.

So it seems to us that in this low-growth world, investors would do well to take a good hard look at high-growth opportunities like China.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Look. Skeptics can say what they want; it does not change the fact that our world is struggling to maintain daily flow-rates. Whether you agree with us or not, the energy reality is that the supply of conventional crude oil is very close to its peak and no other fuel source can easily fill the supply gap.

Yes, various governments are now promoting alternative sources of energy and over the following years, we expect this drive to intensify. But those sources will provide too little, too late. So there remains, today, an unbelievable degree of denial when it comes to 'Peak Oil.' Most people simply dismiss it as a conspiracy. Others gleefully point to alternative sources of energy, whereas some believe that the vast improvements in oil drilling technology will save the day. Do not be seduced by these delusional hopes.

Remember, crude oil is the lifeblood of the global economy and roughly 70% of it is used to power transportation. Moreover, a vast amount of crude oil is also used up by agriculture (production of fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation systems). In fact, modern-day agriculture can be best described as a process of converting hydrocarbons into calories. Without cheap energy, the world would certainly have trouble producing half of the current food supply and the result could be far worse.

Thus, crude oil is a key ingredient in two of the most critical processes which make modern life possible - transportation and agriculture. And shortages of this vital natural resource will result in extreme pain. In the initial stages, the price of crude oil will rise remorselessly and eventually, we will face rationing.

Now that we have established the importance of crude oil, we will explain why new drilling technology and alternative sources of energy will not make this problem go away.

First, as far as drilling technology is concerned, it is worth noting that America is home to the best oilfield technology on this planet. However, its oil production peaked in the early 1970s and has been in a relentless decline. Furthermore, apart from America, other technologically advanced nations in the world have also failed in maintaining their daily flow-rates. For instance, after exporting crude oil for over two decades, Britain is now a net importer and its production is in a state of permanent decline. Hard data confirms that two of the most advanced countries in the world now live in a post 'Peak Oil' era, so what are the odds that other less fortunate nations will succeed in averting 'Peak Oil'?

Secondly, as far as alternative sources of energy are concerned, they represent a drop in the energy ocean and will not be able to offset the depletion in crude oil. Despite all the euphoria surrounding renewable energy, the 'sources' like ethanol and solar panels are net energy losers. In other words, it takes more energy to produce ethanol and solar panels than the energy you obtain from them. For sure, hybrid and electric cars will help us to some degree but you must keep in mind the fact that electricity is not a source of energy; it is a carrier of energy. Even if electric cars become popular, how will we generate sufficient electricity?

Elsewhere in the alternative energy patch, a lot of hopes currently rest on unconventional sources of oil (especially tar sands and shale oil). Once again, this optimism is misplaced, as the increased supply from the unconventional sources will not even make a dent in the overall energy picture. The nearby chart confirms that our world currently produces roughly 85 million barrels per day of total liquids and out of this gigantic sum, only 13 million barrels per day of oil is derived from unconventional sources. So, when the production of conventional crude oil finally declines due to 'Peak Oil', it is extremely improbable that unconventional supply will be able to rise to the challenge.

As far as Canada's tar sands are concerned, Alberta currently produces roughly 1.4 million barrels of oil per day and under the best case scenario, this figure is expected to rise to just 3.5 million barrels per day by 2020. To complicate matters even further, the tar sands require huge amounts of water and natural gas. In addition to this, the mining procedure is extremely polluting. For example, the process of extracting 'oil' from bitumen releases at least three times the amount of carbon dioxide emissions as regular oil production. Accordingly, we have no doubt in our minds that Canada's tar is not the Holy Grail.

Finally, the new oil shale discoveries in America are not going to help us either because the 'oil' trapped in the shale is in fact kerogen - a precursor to oil. So far, all major oil companies have struggled to convert the kerogen into usable oil and it will be interesting to see whether any of them succeeds in the future. In any case, this conversion process is extremely expensive and we can assure you that shale will not be producing any oil at today's prices. Recent studies reveal that the price of oil will have to rise to several hundred dollars per barrel to make this process economically feasible.

Well, now that we have covered the supply side, let us briefly discuss the demand side of the equation. According to the IEA, global oil usage in 2009 will amount to 84.4 million barrels per day and it will rise to 85.7 million barrels per day in 2010. This means that oil demand will rise by 1.5% over the next twelve months which is in line with the growth rate over the past two decades. If this growth rate continues over the next 4-5 years, there is no way our world will be able to ramp up production.

Unfortunately, positive thoughts and wishful thinking will not change the equation. Precious time has been wasted and we have no margin of safety. We must prepare ourselves for sky-high commodity prices and periods of acute shortages, which will make wartime conditions seem rosy. In fact, we believe we are already a decade into this painful transition but let us warn you that we have seen nothing yet.

If our assessment is correct, it seems prudent to make a sizeable allocation to the energy sector. However, given the realities of 'Peak Oil', we do not recommend exposure to the oil majors, as their reserves and production are in decline. On the contrary, we urge you to invest your capital in quality upstream oil/gas companies and businesses involved in the energy services sector.

Regards,

Puru Saxena,
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Peak Oil – The Rewards
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• Increased Oil Production Won’t Solve the Energy Crisis
• Peak Oil – The Risks
• We Are Facing a Global Oil Crunch

Although I have great sympathy for the deflation crowd, given the reckless attitude of the central bankers and their ability to create debt-based money, I do not believe deflation (contraction in the supply of money and total debt) is very likely.

For sure, in this post-bubble environment, American consumer debt continues to contract, but this is being more than offset by the expansion in federal debt. Over the past year alone, federal debt in America has surged from US$9.645 trillion to US$11.813 trillion. In other words, during the past twelve months, American federal debt has risen by a shocking 24.47% and it now stands at 83.52% of GDP! Now, given the ability of the American establishment to essentially create dollars out of thin air, I have no doubt in my mind that it be able to inflate the economy. However, this will come at a huge cost and the victim will be the American currency.

In fact, the recent weakness in the US dollar is a sign that central-bank sponsored inflation has started to dominate the private-sector debt contraction in the West. Furthermore, over the past few weeks, various governments have issued US dollar-denominated debt and this suggests that the carry-trade is back in vogue. In a startling move, Germany recently announced that it plans to borrow money in US dollars!

Now, given the ongoing federal debt inflation, debasement of paper currencies, sky-high budget deficits and competitive currency devaluations, the macro-economic environment has never been better for precious metals. Yet, both gold and silver continue to frustrate the bulls by staying below the record-highs recorded in spring 2008.

So, what is going on here? Have we already seen the end of the precious metals bull-market or are we about to witness an explosive rally? Before I attempt to answer this question, I want to make it clear that even though gold failed to better its all-time high during last autumn's panic, it was the only asset, (apart from US Treasuries) which stayed relatively firm. And looking at the various markets today, gold is the only asset that is flirting with its all-time high. So, whether you like it or not, gold deserves some credit for fulfilling its role as a safe haven.

Now, unlike some of the die-hard gold bugs, I don't believe that gold is the ultimate asset to own at all times. Without a doubt, there have been times in history when gold has proven to be a lousy investment. For instance, between 1980 and 2001, the nominal price of the yellow metal fell by an astonishing 70%. This horrible price action spawned an entire generation who grew up hating gold and up until a few years ago, the vast majority considered gold a barbaric relic.

However, during other periods in history, when macro-economic uncertainty was high and inflationary expectations were running out of control, gold turned out to be a fantastic asset to own.

If my take on the macro-economic situation is valid, then we are in such a period now and gold must form a part of every investment portfolio.

You may remember that over the past year, central banks have injected trillions of dollars into the banking system and it is only a matter of time before inflationary expectations start spiraling out of control. Up until now, this 'stimulus' money hasn't permeated through the economy in the West but once money velocity picks up, prices will start rising and the investment community will become very concerned about inflation. When the deflation scare abates and people start protecting the purchasing power of their savings, capital will start to flow towards precious metals.

Long-term clients and subscribers will recall that about two years ago, I highlighted gold's tendency to rocket higher every other year. Figure 1 captures this trend perfectly and you can see that since the outset, gold's bull-market has been punctuated by lengthy consolidations and the yellow metal has surged to a new high every alternate year.

So, if gold remains in a bull-market and its trend consistency is intact, its price should surge over the following months. Conversely, if the price of gold fails to climb above its all-time high before year-end, it should start to ring alarm bells as this would open up the possibility that the bull-market may be over. Remember, certainty does not exist in the investment world and savvy investors should remain open to all outcomes.

Now, given the uncertainty in the world today and the ticking inflationary time-bomb, my view is that gold will soon embark on its north-bound journey. So, I suggest that investors hold on to gold and the related mining companies which will probably continue to perform well until next spring.

As far as silver is concerned, it has always been a high-beta play on the direction of gold. If the next up leg in gold's bull-market materialises, the price of silver will also head towards the heavens. Accordingly, investors may also want to allocate a portion of their investment portfolio to silver bullion and silver producing companies.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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According to the US Department of Energy, liquid fuel demand in the developed nations peaked in August 2005 at 41.89 million barrels per day. Since then, it has plunged by 3.6 million barrels per day to 38.27 million barrels per day. However, you may want to note that despite these tough economic conditions, consumption has been extremely resilient in the emerging world. For instance, demand in the developing countries peaked in October 2008 at 46.33 million barrels per day and it is down by only 0.36 million barrels per day! I am amazed that the worst global recession in decades has barely managed to shrink energy demand in the developing world. Whilst this is wonderful news for the energy investor, it is a terrible sign for society.

At present, our world is using up roughly 84 million barrels of liquid fuels per day and for the moment at least, there is sufficient supply to meet demand (Figure 1). However, when economic activity picks up, it won't take much for demand to zip right past supply. Remember, it is much easier to increase usage, but it takes a long time to ramp up production. So, unless this is a permanent global recession (which I doubt), it is inevitable that the price of oil will go up significantly over the medium to long-term.

On the supply side of the equation, let me be clear. If I was asked to pick the biggest threat to a sustainable economic recovery, Peak Oil would top that list. Remember, Peak Oil doesn't mean that we are running out of oil reserves, crude will be around for decades. However, 'Peak Oil' does imply that we are dangerously close to peak global oil production. 'Peak Oil' also means that rather than experiencing a burst in oil supplies as many expect, from here onwards, we will witness sharp declines in global flow rates. In a nutshell, the era of cheap energy is over and the price of crude oil will rocket higher over the
coming decade.

Now, many skeptics will argue that if Peak Oil was real, the price of oil wouldn't have dropped to roughly US$30 per barrel in last autumn's stunning crash. Valid point; but let us not forget that the spectacular plunge occurred at a time when global economic activity virtually came to a standstill. Let us also keep in mind that last autumn's crash in asset prices was caused by a total freeze in credit and the associated asset liquidation. Whilst I agree that the final action in crude oil's parabolic blow-off last July smacked of speculation, I can assure you that speculation alone couldn't have created a multi-year boom whereby the price of crude oil went up by almost 1500%! As you can see from Figure 1 above, supply clearly fell short of demand between 2005 and 2008, and this is why we had a magnificent bull-market in crude oil.

Make no mistake, global demand for liquid fuels will rise again - and if my homework is correct, supply won't be able to keep up. If you ignore the noise and review hard data, you will observe that the vast majority of the world's most prolific oil provinces are now past peak production and in a state of permanent depletion. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, out of the 54 oil producing nations and regions in the world, only 14 are still increasing production. Alarmingly, 30 oil producing nations and regions are definitely past their peak output and the remaining 10 appear to have modestly declining production rates. Put another way, when weighted by production, Peak Oil is already a grim reality in 61% of the oil producing world!

Still not convinced about Peak Oil? Then review Figure 2, which charts the expected combined flow rates for crude oil, lease condensates and Canadian Oil Sands. As you can see from the grey shaded area, production is about to decline by roughly 5 million barrels per day by 2012.

Ironically, Figure 2 also plots the optimistic (almost laughable) forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its "World Energy Outlook 2008". Interestingly, in last year's "World Energy Outlook", the IEA stated that in order to fulfill its optimistic projections, the world had to install 64 million barrels per day of new supply by 2030 or the equivalent of six times the Saudi Arabian output! Furthermore, the IEA declared that the energy industry had to invest hundreds of billions of dollars every year to achieve this favorable outcome.

Now, I can understand that the IEA is a government-funded agency so it has to paint a rosy picture, but it is ominous that the energy watchdog failed to mention where this surplus oil would come from!

Well, I guess you get the idea. Global crude oil production has probably peaked, new discoveries have dried up and there is a shortage of capital for investment purposes. Apart from these factors, if you believe the energy optimists, all is well in the energy industry and the price of oil is about to drop to zero!

After years of extensive research, I have no doubt in my mind that unless global demand stays weak forever, we will see supply shortages in the not too distant future. And before that occurs, the price of crude oil will stage an explosive rally. Accordingly, I suggest that all my readers allocate a large proportion of their investment portfolio to upstream energy companies and to businesses in the energy services sector.

Finally, in the energy complex, the price of natural gas is still scraping along its recent crash low and this is a fantastic long-term investment opportunity. As we approach winter in the Northern Hemisphere and heating demand picks up, we are likely to see a big rally in the price of natural gas. So, investors may want to allocate capital to this unbelievably inexpensive commodity.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Supply of Conventional Crude Oil is Very Close to its Peak
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It is my contention that we will get neither hyperinflation nor deflation.

What is more likely is that over the coming months, we will get another deflationary scare. Any sell-off in the markets later this year will be met by an even larger stimulus from the policymakers and this will ultimately result in high inflation.

So, I maintain my view that due to the unprecedented policy responses around the globe, the world's economy will face high inflation over the medium to long-term. And the general price level will double over the
coming decade.

In the near-term however, we will probably get another period when the market will (once again) become concerned about the prospects of a lengthy economic contraction. It is conceivable that the 'green shoots' hype currently doing the rounds will soon be replaced by more economic worries as a second wave of foreclosures hits America later this year. So, it is possible that before year-end, we will witness large corrections in stocks and commodities. Conversely, we are likely to see big rallies in U.S.
government bonds, U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.

This near-term vulnerability in the markets is the reason why I have recently liquidated my 'long' positions in resources and emerging markets and gained a heavy exposure to long dated U.S. Treasuries. In my view, a
defensive investment stance is prudent at this juncture, as it will protect our capital and allow profit from the expected contraction. Once the pullback in the markets is complete, I will liquidate my positions in U.S. Treasuries and re-invest our capital in our preferred holdings in energy, materials, mining
and emerging Asia.

Look. In the business of investing, the tape never lies and it is worth remembering that Wall Street is littered with the graves of those who got married to one particular outcome and then held on to their ill-conceived
notions. At this point, when private-sector debt contraction in America is locking horns with central bank inflation, I prefer to have an open mind. Therefore, I am maintaining a defensive near-term investment position. If the market corrects over the following weeks, I will be in a position to profit from such a decline. On the other hand, if the major indices simply consolidate here and break above the recovery highs recorded last month, then I will have no hesitation in changing my defensive investment position. Put simply, I am currently watching and waiting patiently for the market to reveal its hand.

Coming back to the subject of this essay, the reason that I don't foresee immediate hyperinflation is because the velocity of money is currently weak. In other words, at least for the moment, the private sector in America isn't participating in Mr. Bernanke's inflation agenda. Despite the fact that Mr. Bernanke has injected a massive amount of reserves in the banking sector, this money is currently sitting as excess reserves within the American banking system. The fact that this money isn't being lent out rules out immediate hyperinflation. However, once the American economy stabilizes and the velocity of money picks up, these excess reserves will trigger a massive inflationary wave.

As far as deflation is concerned, I am of the view that the policy responses and our fiat-money system will ensure that the purchasing power of cash will continue to diminish over the medium to long-term. In fact, I am willing to bet that cash will probably be the worst performing 'asset' over the coming decade. Remember, in today's monetary system, central banks and governments the world over are free to create money out of thin air and this will prevent outright deflation in the global economy.

It is worth noting that in the past six months alone, China's commercial bank credit has expanded by a whopping US$1 trillion! Figure 1 highlights the surge in Chinese bank lending. Furthermore, credit is also expanding frantically in other Asian nations. So, contrary to the West, monetary policy is still alive and well in the developing nations and this factor also rules out outright deflation in the global economy.

In my opinion, rather than hyperinflation or outright deflation, we will witness elevated inflation after the American economy has stabilized. In the interim however, investors should be prepared for another deflationary scare and the associated market panic.

Regards,

Puru Saxena

for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Inflation or Deflation?
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• Inflation is Our Future
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Rather than accept a painful adjustment period, policymakers are desperately trying to revive the party. And in the process, they are making the situation much worse. All over the world, governments are spending trillions of dollars in order to clean up the mess. Unfortunately, the stark reality is that these governments have no money. So, in most instances, these glorious state-sponsored spending programs are being financed by borrowing and money printing.

Most people seem to forget that these fiscal spending programs aren't creating any real wealth and are simply transferring wealth from the savers to the debtors. Essentially, governments are taking money from the solvent and re-distributing these funds amongst the insolvent.

Needless to say, by bailing out the incompetent and buying their toxic assets, the governments are cleaning up the private-sector balance sheets but at a huge cost. In the process of saving a few 'too big to fail' corporations and their bondholders, policymakers are greatly increasing the risk of sovereign defaults. In a nutshell, policymakers are erroneously transferring private-sector risk to the state.

So far in the ongoing credit crisis, we haven't really seen many sovereign bankruptcies but I suspect they will follow. And you can bet your bottom dollar that policymakers will not hesitate to use the printing presses if it results in escaping sovereign default. As a result of the world's banking system being a multiple of world GDP, the sad truth is that politicians don't have very many options.

What we've witnessed over the past few months is that governments around the world have decided to maintain the stability of their banking systems in order to preserve the trust of their populace. Basically, policymakers have opted to save the banks even if it means putting entire nations at a great risk. And the most likely outcome is that the politicians will continue on this inflationary road to nowhere.

In my opinion, as the private sector continues to pay back debt, the use of the printing press won't result in immediate inflation. However, over the medium-term, all these needless bailouts are going to create a massive inflation problem.

Amidst all this economic uncertainty and rampant money printing, confidence in governments will plummet and people will turn to 'old fashioned' stores of value - those assets which represented money long before pieces of paper backed by empty promises became fashionable. Indeed, the investment community has already begun moving towards precious metals and I expect this trend to continue.

It is interesting to note that only 160,000 tons of gold has ever been mined from the face of this planet and at US$950 per ounce, it is worth US$4.9 trillion. Now, consider that the total amount of paper money in circulation (currencies, savings, deposits, money-markets and CDs) is worth US$60 trillion or approximately twelve times the value of the gold in existence. Now, there is no doubt in my mind that as world governments debase their currencies, many people will begin to question the viability of paper money as a store of value and they will turn to gold, silver and platinum. Even if a small fraction of paper money rushes towards the small gold and silver markets, what do you think will happen to their prices? No question, precious metals' prices will explode!

Accordingly, I sincerely recommend that investors allocate at least 10% of their wealth to physical bullion. Over the next few days, it is likely that precious metals will correct and this may be the final opportunity to buy gold and silver at these levels. Those looking for extra leverage should invest money in the precious metals mining stocks. So far in the precious metals bull market, we've had massive rallies every two years. If this trend remains intact, after the usual summer correction, we should see an explosive move until spring next year.

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Gold and Silver!
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• A Word About the Dollar’s Decline from Our Intrepid Correspondent, Byron King:
• There is More to Wealth than Money

It is worth noting, that the Federal Reserve has already dropped the Fed funds rate to a historically low range of 0-0.25% and now it is desperately trying to use other unconventional methods (quantitative easing) to stimulate the economy. In my view, this latest development of the Federal Reserve monetizing debt is inflationary and confirmation that the Federal Reserve wants to debase the U.S. dollar. It is worth noting that the total debt in the United States now exceeds $60 trillion, and its economy is around $14 trillion. So, the United States is already bankrupt, and the only way it can ever hope to repay this gigantic sum is through monetary inflation and debasement.

Allow me to explain:

Suppose your grandparents borrowed $100,000 from their friends roughly 50 years ago. Back then, $100,000 was a lot of money, and the chances of your grandparents ever repaying this loan were slim at best. However, thanks to monetary inflation and the debasement of the U.S. dollar, today, $100,000 isn't a very large sum of money. Therefore, your grandparents would find it much easier to repay their debt.

Turning to the present situation, the United States owes its creditors a gigantic amount of money and a debt so large that it can never hope of repaying it in today's dollars. So, the United States has two options:

a. Default or bankruptcy

b. Monetary inflation

Given the fact that the United States is still the world's largest economy, owns the world's reserve currency and has a democratically elected government, I think we can pretty much rule out the possibility of sovereign default. Therefore, you can bet your bottom dollar that the United States will try its best to inflate its way out of trouble. Remember, politicians borrow money when it buys them a loaf of bread and they repay it when the same money is worth only a slice of bread!

It is my firm belief that over the years ahead, the United States, and all other debt-laden nations in the West, will engage in massive money- creation in order to debase their currencies and dilute the purchasing power of paper money. Remember, monetary inflation is a debtor's best friend, as it makes the debt easier to service and repay.

On the other hand, monetary inflation goes against the interests of savers and creditors. Given the fact that most of the 'developed' nations are up to their eyeballs in debt, you don't have to be a genius to figure out that monetary inflation is our future. At present, the global economy is dealing with deflationary forces due to credit contraction in the private-sector. However, even now, total credit in the United States is expanding due to rampant borrowing by the U.S. government. So, I don't expect deflation to take hold; rather, I anticipate accelerating inflation, which has always led to rising asset and consumer prices.

It is worth noting that apart from the Federal Reserve, other nations have also started monetizing their debt. Recently, the Bank of England announced that it plans to buy GBP150 billion worth of its government debt by creating money out of thin air. Needless to say, such a move is inflationary and terrible for the health of the British currency.

Now that we have established that monetary inflation is our future, let us examine which currencies and assets will maintain their purchasing power. If history is any guide, nations that engage in monetary inflation always diminish the purchasing power of their currency. So, in the years ahead, we can expect currencies in the West to depreciate in terms of purchasing power, but the trouble is that none of the fundamentally sound nations want a strong currency either! As the world engages in competitive currency devaluations, I expect all the currencies in the world to lose significant purchasing power against hard assets. Therefore, in the years ahead, precious metals and other commodities with intrinsic value should appreciate considerably. Even the values of fundamentally sound businesses with clean balance sheets should skyrocket as a result of inflation.

Last week, in the aftermath of the latest announcement by the Federal Reserve, we have seen significant strength in precious metals, crude oil and grains. Conversely, we have seen a huge decline in the U.S. dollar. If the Federal Reserve continues on this inflationary path, we can expect a resumption of the commodities bull-market and renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am of the view that most commodities and stock markets have seen the lows for the entire bear market and we may be in the early stages of a new cyclical bull market that could last for a few years. Now, I am aware that my bullish stance may lead to ridicule from some of my readers, but I would like to point out that new bull markets are always born during abject pessimism and skepticism. Even if some asset prices break to fresh lows in the near- term, I suspect such a move will prove to be a 'head fake' and prices will soon rebound. So if you have a 4-5 year investment horizon, now may be a good time to convert some of your temporarily powerful cash into hard assets (precious metals, energy and industrial metals), related producing-companies and sound businesses in the fast-growing Asian economies.

At the current levels, the energy complex looks extremely attractive and should prove to be a fantastic long-term investment. After years of extensive research, I am convinced that the world's oil production is peaking and we are likely to see much higher energy prices in the future. So, investors may want to add to their positions in upstream oil/gas companies and the energy service stocks. Finally, it looks as though the precious metals complex is becoming over-heated and long- term investors may want to wait for the usual summer correction before adding to their positions in physical gold and silver.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Today, investors in financials have lost nearly everything and before this is over, I suspect the majority of banks in the West will be nationalized. This would mean a total catastrophe for those who invested in bank stocks or corporate bonds. So, no matter how strongly your private banker pushes you to load up on "cheap" financial stocks, please DO NOT go "bottom fishing" in this bankrupt industry. Banking is no longer a growth industry and financials will disappoint investors for many years. Furthermore, if you have any exposure to hedge funds, structured products, accumulators or derivatives of any kind, I sincerely urge you to get rid of all this highly toxic garbage. Such Ponzi schemes were very good for the private bankers (due to the huge amounts of commissions involved) but they are a disaster waiting to happen. Today, our planet has roughly US$600 trillion worth of derivatives and this is roughly 10 times the size of the global economy! So, please get rid of your derivatives based "investments" immediately.

Even though the financials are getting killed, our fundamentally sound stocks in solid sectors continue to report good operating results and their stock prices are much higher than the lows recorded last fall. So, this is a positive divergence and shows that the market's internal breadth is improving with fewer stocks breaking down to new lows. Another positive sign is that the Asian markets are faring much better and are nowhere near the lows recorded last fall.

During such turbulent times, it is worth remembering that your stocks represent partial ownership in underlying businesses with real assets (plants, reserves, land, machinery, technology, cash and human resources). And even though the stock market's current appraisal is not favorable, it has no connection with the intrinsic value of your holdings.

Various central banks continue to steer this economy like drunken sailors and they are injecting TRILLIONS of dollars into the system. I would argue that many nations in the West are already bankrupt (US, Britain, Germany, Spain, Iceland and Ireland come to mind) and the ONLY thing they can do now is to print even more money. For example, America's total debt is worth US$54 trillion and there is no way the US can ever hope of repaying its debt in today's money. In other words, either the US will default (highly unlikely in my view) or it will print and inflate so that this huge mountain of debt feels much smaller in the future due to the loss of its purchasing power. Remember, the best way to make debt more manageable is by inflating the supply of money in the system. And this is precisely what the various central banks are doing.

It is worth noting that nations like Germany and the United States have already started using the printing press and more nations will soon follow. When the entire planet is covered with oceans of paper "money", its purchasing power will sink and hard assets will sky-rocket. At least this is what has happened throughout history. So, please don't be fooled by this temporary contraction in hard assets and hold on to your positions. If anything, take advantage of the ongoing fire-sale and if your financial situation permits, convert more cash to quality assets in the resources sector.

A bunch of turkeys have hijacked our monetary system and all they know is how to print money. Rather than let the market clear itself out, central banks continue to use taxpayers' money to bail out insolvent institutions. This brilliant strategy has NEVER worked in the past and it will not work this time around. Instead of robbing innocent people of their savings, the establishment must allow the weak banks to go bust. For example, if Citibank is on the verge of collapse, then the US Treasury must let it go bust! All Mr. Geithner needs to do is to protect the customers of Citibank, allow Citibank's investors (shareholders and bondholders) to suffer and sell the bank's book to another institution. This is all that needs to happen. This way, depositors will not lose anything and only investors in Citibank will suffer - and they should! Why should the public share the losses with these investors? When Citibank did well in the past, did its shareholders and bondholders distribute the profits to the public? Of course not! So, why should the reverse occur now?!

Personally, I find these bailouts absurd, unethical and a total waste of valuable resources! Who gave these politicians the authority to act like investment bankers? Mr. Geithner is not a qualified 'merger & acquisition' expert, so how does he have the audacity to use other people's money to take over insolvent banks? Likewise, Mr. Bernanke is now using American taxpayers' money and buying distressed debt! I find this outrageous! Is he going to act like a debt collector when people default on their loans?

Mark my words - the establishment is only making matters worse and prolonging the pain. Moreover, by printing insane amounts of paper, the politicians are setting everyone up for an inflationary nightmare! One thing is for sure - before this drama ends, the viability of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency will come under question. When the U.S. dollar starts to implode, hard assets will go through the roof. Remember, commodity prices went ballistic in the late 1930s as well as during the 1970s. We should expect similar action in the years ahead

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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The rate of decline has been astonishing and in the past twelve months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) has seen its worst one-year performance - ever! It is interesting to observe that the Dow's recent plunge has been even worse than the 1929 decline which preceded the Great Depression of the 1930's (Figure 1). So, are we really witnessing the end of the world as we know it?

Figure 1

Regardless of the Armageddon fears prevalent today, I would argue that this slump may turn out to be a fantastic buying opportunity for the patient, long-term investor.

Now, the mainstream media seems to be convinced that our planet is headed into a permanent global depression and investor-sentiment certainly reflects this thought process. The same cheerleaders who, only a few months ago, were gleefully shouting about the emergence of a new global economy are now forecasting eternal disaster. Furthermore, investors are liquidating all assets as images of their children living in shanty towns fill their fearful minds. 'Demand destruction' and 'de-leveraging' have replaced 'liquidity' and 'global growth' as the new buzz-words. Stocks are down significantly from the highs, corporate bonds have taken a beating and even commodities (including precious metals) have joined the bear parade. And those who naively bought structured products from private banks have seen total losses. So, where do we go from here?

The best way to begin is by reiterating that global markets are now extremely oversold and undervalued, hence attractive. This may sound counter-intuitive but it is vital to understand that a decline of 40% in US stocks (and even more in some countries) has set the stage for fantastic long-term gains. If my assessment proves to be correct, investors who buy the unimpaired sectors today should make a fortune over the coming decade.

Remember, the best time to buy is when everyone is despondently selling. As John Templeton (founder of Templeton Funds) often said, "bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and due on euphoria". And you can be sure that the investment community is feeling extremely pessimistic and fearful today.

At present, a lot of 'gloom and doom' and 'deflation' chatter is doing the rounds in the mainstream media. The recent selling panic is frequently being described at the worst crisis since the Great Depression. However, this hype does not imply that the economic outlook is similar to the 1930's. One of the biggest reasons why the Great Depression occurred was due to the failure or inability of the money-supply to expand in line with the need for this money. Furthermore, the failure of roughly 5,000 banks did not help the situation either as millions of Americans lost their savings! In the current situation, however, various central banks and governments are throwing trillions of dollars into the monetary system and all bank deposits have been guaranteed. And if need be, the authorities will print money until the world runs out of trees. So, in my view, a prolonged deflationary phase or a global depression is not likely to happen.

The recent sharp declines in the markets can be attributed to the fact that two separate negative events caught the public's attention at roughly the same time - depth of the financial crisis and fears of a US recession. Now, as far as the first issue is concerned, it is my belief that the worst is behind us. For sure, we may hear of sporadic bank busts in the months ahead, but the recent government guarantees prevented a total collapse of the banking system. For the record, I do not agree with the recent bail-outs because they are immoral and are going to cause huge inflation in the future. However, we all have to deal with reality and for now, it seems that the credit markets are starting to function again.

Our research reveals that currently US$3.5 trillion is sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be invested. And when investors deploy this cash into the markets, it will flow towards sectors which have been unharmed in this financial crisis. Now, I do not know about you, but apart from natural resources (where supply and demand imbalances persist) and industrials (which may benefit from massive government-sponsored infrastructure projects), I cannot find any other sector which has strong fundamentals. Housing faces severe over-supply, autos are struggling, banks will suffer due to over-regulation and consumer discretionary stocks will also fare poorly as the over-stretched public in the West tightens its belts.

The one sector of the economy which remains in excellent condition is commodities. Demand is holding firm, supplies of key resources are still tight and the ongoing credit crisis will only delay many projects which were previously meant to come online. This will create additional supply shortages in the future, thereby leading to much higher prices.

As far as precious metals are concerned, it is worth remembering that our world's financial system has been hijacked by money-printers. Whether it is the Federal Reserve, Bank of England or the European Central Bank - they are all creating money 'out of thin air' and inflating the supply of paper currencies.

As this rampant inflation continues, what is astonishing though is that so many investors are being hoodwinked into believing that our world faces a genuine deflationary bust. These days, opinion is divided as to whether we will witness continuing inflation or gut-wrenching deflation. In my view, this discussion is absurd and deflation (or a contraction in the supply of money) is out of the question.

Banks are in the business of lending money and debt creation is essential for their very survival and prosperity. So, you can be sure that the modern-day money lenders will find a new way to further expand the supply of money and debt.

Whilst paper currencies (cash) regained some purchasing power in the past few months due to forced liquidation in the asset markets, there is no chance that they will maintain their value over the medium to long-term. History is littered with numerous paper currencies which became totally worthless and I suspect many of the current ones will also disappear. In fact, a remarkable study confirms that only 23% of paper currencies ever issued have survived the test of time! The vast majority were destroyed due to hyperinflation and are no longer in circulation.

Accordingly, I would urge investors to sit tight with their positions in hard assets (precious metals, energy and agriculture) and add more capital at such depressed levels. Under the best-case scenario, global markets bottomed out over the past two months and even if they did not, at the very least, we should get a multi-month rally in commodities and related stocks.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman and Morgan Stanley.

The immense scale of the carnage has been impressive so far, but what is more astonishing is the mind-numbing intervention by the U.S. establishment. Over the past month alone, thanks to the bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the US has more than doubled its national debt. Moreover, the 'Troubled Assets Relief Program' (TARP) would have further increased America's debt to U.S.$11.3 trillion. And as if this level of indebtedness was not enough, Mr. Paulson has also agreed to insure money-market funds.

Let there be no mistake; the U.S. has now transformed itself into a great socialist society by using taxpayers' money to buy-out private companies. In my view, this ridiculous measure is a slap in the face of capitalism and will further promote reckless and dubious practices. Essentially, by bailing out the behemoths (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG) and allowing the smaller fish (Lehman Brothers) to fail, the U.S. establishment is sending out the following message:
"If you want government protection, please become too big to fail. If your demise threatens our entire financial system, we will help you. Otherwise, we will let you fail."

There can be no doubt that this policy of 'selective socialism' is totally insane for several reasons. First and foremost, who has given these officials the power to decide which company is worth saving and which one is insignificant enough to fail? Next, what kind of message are they giving to the remaining banks - please merge quickly and grow in size or else you will be allowed to fail? Furthermore, America already has a horrendous debt problem (debt to GDP ratio in excess of 400%) so who has given the U.S. Treasury the authority to take on more debt? Finally, who is going to pay for these trillions of dollars of bailouts?

Although these bailouts may offer short-term respite, I am of the opinion that the recent antics of the U.S. establishment will make matters much worse over the mid- to long-term. History has shown time and time again that no nation has ever printed its way to prosperity. In fact, all the of the nations that have resorted to money-printing in the past, ultimately saw a total economic collapse. Furthermore, the middle-class and the impoverished people in those countries got totally wiped out due to runaway inflation. And apart from a handful of rich people who were able to ride the inflationary wave, everyone else suffered a great deal. I wish I could come up with more cheerful news, but I am afraid the same economic outcome is likely in the United States. If the clowns in Washington continue with their senseless inflation agenda by adding more monetary fuel to an already raging fire, I suspect we will see a massive deterioration in the American way of life.

Now, I am aware that the majority of commentators and pundits are applauding the recent bailouts. According to these folks, the bailouts were necessary to prevent an outright collapse of the financial system and the government intervention also helped to restore calm in the financial markets.

For sure, the recent nationalization of assets may have helped the markets in the near-term, however I fail to see how it can be good for the global economy over the long-term. Remember, it was the same reckless money-printing in the aftermath of the NASDAQ bust which caused this massive financial crisis, and now the U.S. establishment is throwing more money into the system! In the short-term, this injection of liquidity may act like a shot of heroin for the desperate drug addict, but in the longer-term, this dosage of monetary poison will end up killing this terminally-ill patient. After all, how can these bailouts be good when they will further destroy the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar? How can these measures be hailed by the investment community when they will cause food and energy prices to skyrocket in the years ahead? How can more monetary inflation be good if it punishes savers at the expense of debtors?
Make no mistake, this reckless monetary inflation will eventually cause the U.S. dollar to become worthless and America may have no option but to issue a new dollar bill (Figure 1). And if other nations also embark on this inflationary road to nowhere, we will see a terrible hyper-inflationary depression with currencies plummeting against tangible assets.

Figure 1: US Treasury's new dollar bill?

Courtesy: Hank & Ben's Money Printing Corporation

Despite the horrendous economic environment we find ourselves in, it is fascinating to observe the sheer denial amongst the investment community. Most fund managers, economists and analysts still want the public to believe that the United States is not in a recession and that its housing situation is about to improve! Nothing could be further from the truth. How can the United States not be in a recession when entire industries have been wiped out? Next time, when somebody tells you that the U.S. economy is stronger than you might think, please ask them which industry or group of industries are growing? As far as I am aware, investment banks, automobiles, homebuilders, consumer discretionary and mortgage related businesses are all facing a severe slump. Yet, Mr. Bush and his comrades have no problem in citing the strength of the American economy.

In summary, I maintain my view that the current crisis is far from over and I suggest that you stay well clear of the financial sector. Although, the financial companies may seem cheap due to the recent declines, I can assure you that they could get a whole lot cheaper. The truth is that nobody knows what is on and off the balance sheets of these institutions and at the very best, we may see a lengthy period of consolidation before we get a sustainable recovery in financial stocks.

As far as the broad market is concerned, I suspect the stock market is extremely oversold at the current levels and we may get a technical rally over the coming weeks. Unfortunately, our fundamentally superior resources stocks got sold off in the recent stock-market rout and this may be the best opportunity you will ever get to buy solid, viable companies at such fire-sale prices. So, if you have not done so already, I suggest that you invest your capital in energy, food and metals as these assets are likely to move higher when the newly created 'money' seeps through the system.

Regards,

Puru Saxena

For The Daily Reckoning Australia

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