There is much discussion of the scale of the global economic crisis. Some people expect it to cause a crisis comparable to the Great Slump a wiping out of capital values, a liquidation of global debt. We cannot yet be sure, but we can see that the main factors of global economic development are all in difficulty. On the one hand…
August 1st, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 1 comment | ContinuedArchive for William Rees-Mogg
Leading political editor William Rees-Mogg is former editor-in-chief for The Times and a member of the House of Lords. He has been credited with accurately forecasting glasnost and the fall of the Berlin Wall – as well as the 1987 crash. His political commentary appears in The Times every Monday. His financial insights can only be found in the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment newsletter.
There Are Two Ways of Studying Economic Theory
The events of 2007 and 2008 have shown the limitations of the mathematical method. The credit crunch was not foreseen by anyone that I read, but it came as a shock to the number-crunchers – it took them completely by surprise. It did not come as a shock to the economic historians, who happily settled down to discuss the resemblances between this credit crisis and earlier ones…
July 18th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 9 comments | Continued
Recessions Can be Short, Medium, Long, Mild, Medium or Severe
It is already clear that this is not going to be a short and mild recession, but we cannot yet be sure – for lack of evidence – whether it will be medium or long and severe. Of course, it will not take the same form in different countries. As in the California fire, some districts will largely be spared but others will suffer square miles of conflagration…
July 10th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 0 comments | Continued
Barack Obama is a Strong Favourite to Win the Presidency
On the whole, I have a better record of forecasting American elections than British. Distance makes one see the developments more clearly. I certainly can claim to be one of the early birds in detecting the strength of the movement towards Barack Obama. I am not sure that those early forecasts are of any importance except to the columnist himself, but they do reassure the writer that he, or she, is in touch with some sort of political reality.
June 5th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 14 comments | Continued
U.S. Presidential Election
I am in the somewhat unusual position of having a potential right to a vote in the U.S. Presidential election which I have not taken up. In 1934, as a move towards gender equality, President Roosevelt gave American women the right to retain their citizenship if they married a foreigner. My mother had married an Englishman in 1920, had forfeited her citizenship and was in due course able to regain it.
May 30th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 5 comments | Continued
Bank’s Inflation Projections Will Not Return to the 2 Per Cent Target Figure Until Early 2010
Those who experienced the 1970s were taught a painful lesson about the negative effects of inflation. In standard monetary theory some emphasis is given to the initial phases of inflation in which an increasing money supply funds economic expansion and tends to cause booms, bubbles and speculation. Less attention is usually given to the second stage of inflation in which prices rise…
May 16th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 0 comments | Continued
No Great Slump, but Stagnant Inflation Looms
The world is not on the edge of another Great Slump, but the combination of the deflationary effect of the collapse of a widespread housing bubble with the inflationary effect of higher prices for oil and food does present Governments with the most difficult economic problems since the 1970s. It was then called “stagflation”, to reflect stagnant inflation. Both horns of the stagflation dilemma now look sharp and threatening.
April 11th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 2 comments | Continued
Labour Government Rejected Amendment to Lisbon Treaty Which Called for a Referendum
The parliamentary ratification took no notice of public opinion. The Labour Government rejected an amendment to the Lisbon Treaty Bill which would have called for a referendum. The Government’s majority in the House of Commons was 63, on a vote of 311 to 248.
March 7th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 3 comments | Continued
The 2008 Presidential Election Has Developed into Charges and Counter-Charges of Corruption
It is depressing that the American election has developed into charges and counter-charges of corruption. Senator Obama has been attacked for historic property deals. Senator McCain has been attacked for his relations with a lobbyist.
February 28th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 2 comments | Continued
Europe is About to Suffer an Outbreak of Obamamania
There has been an extraordinary shift in the age group which dominates political life, in Europe as well as the United States. Those of us who are older than the baby boomers, saw them take over from our generation and now see our children’s generation taking over from them.
February 25th, 2008 | William Rees-Mogg | 6 comments | Continued