The Biggest Mess Since the Great Depression

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Yesterday, the Dow decided to keep us wondering. It rose almost 200 points. In our view, the tide is going out. The credit cycle peaked out this past spring… and the great wash of cash and credit is now ebbing.

But if we’re right, we’d expect to see asset prices go down. So far, housing prices ARE going down. The last figures we saw showed U.S. housing prices down 13%. Robert Shiller, who probably knows more about housing cycles than anyone, says they’ll probably go down 30%-40%. In Britain, houses just registered their third losing month in a row – with many more to come.

You can count on lower housing prices – at least in real terms. Because there is no way that the average house can remain out of reach of the average buyer for very long. Houses are consumer items, not investments. They will fall in price to a level where the consumer can afford them.

But stocks are not consumer items. They are capital items…investments that go up and down based on various things – animal spirits, credit, earnings, etc. Earnings are going down (they always revert to mean)…and the credit cycle has probably turned negative.

Yesterday, the number one man at Legg Mason said that credit markets were in the worst shape in 47 years. And a Washington Post writer opined that it was the “biggest mess since ’29.”

That leaves “animal spirits” – Keynes’ term for market sentiment. The animals are still believers. They’ve come to think that capitalism will make them rich… and that capitalism’s custodians will make sure that nothing goes wrong. And whenever they begin to doubt it, Ben Bernanke and his fellow zookeepers throw them some red meat. A rate cut is coming… and a plan to rescue the mortgage market – relief is on the way!

But can the feds always save investors from their own mistakes? Can they make sure that stocks remain high forever? Can they protect the dollar… and make bad loans good again?

No… of course not. But that doesn’t mean they won’t try! The animals would be very disappointed if they didn’t.

Our old friend Rick Ackerman comments:

“We always expected the Fed to pull out all the stops when the U.S. economy began to slip into the void, but we never could have imagined the spinmeisters would invent ‘mortgage welfare’ even before recession had been officially declared. Treasury’s latest plan is designed to make it easier for certain ARMs borrowers to temporarily freeze their starter rates to avoid foreclosure. We know the situation is dire because the big lenders are signing on without even having their arms twisted… Paulson’s plan is not merely being fast-tracked, it is being shot out of a legislative cannon.”

But will the feds hit the mark? Will they be able to reverse the tide… or like King Canute, merely look like silly old fools?

We’ll see, won’t we?

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning Australia

Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.
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Comments

  1. The masses always expect somebody else to fix their problems for them. They go to kmart and try on clothes and them throw them all over the floor for the staff to pick up. They go to Mcdonalds and eat and throw their wrappers all over the floor for the staff to pick up. They lose their toddlers when they go shopping cause they’re too busy looking for bargains and expect all the staff and security guards to go and find them while they wait. One day the time will come when they have to fix their own problems, and they won’t know how to deal with it. All the rich will run back to their mansions when the trouble starts, and slam the doors shut. And the masses will be outside yelling “come and pick up after us, come and look after us, look we’ve got the latest look, and we’re pouting like models and we’re very good looking, and we’re really cool. So throw money at us” And the rich will say “What- pick up afetr you? Oh no, we only did that to get your money. You’re own your own now See YA!” So those silly masses had better start to face up to their own self created problems soon, because the world won’t be around forever to bail them out.

    Reply
  2. There’s lots of idiots because it’s been easy and painless to follow the herd.

    Reply

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