http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

However, as a record of living, life consists of causally connected acts staged under circumstances of events. Living has us start from a foundational act and moves us through chains of building acts that lead us to change moments. At these grab-the-success moments, we rise to the challange, act and score or we do not.

Unless we start off a chain of connected acts and unless we move through the circumstances of events, we will never reach so-called "rare events".

Black Swans and other false beliefs suffer from consensus supported by decrees -- what some call paradigms.

A paradigm gets inculcated into commoners by elites and get reinforced through media. A paradigm gives rise to practices of behavior -- ritual, protocol, custom, inhibition, addiction, superstition, convention -- and of mind set -- prejudice, habit.

The typical man (the Old English word for the French "person") will accept paradigms told by public educators, PhDuh Darwin and Big Bang Preachers, bosses, and politicians.

The depth of paradigm acceptance sets the degree to which a paradigm keeps a man from seeing another way, a better way to act through a causal chain of events. How well a man interprets the paradigm decides the degree to which comprehending errors lead to making mistakes. How inculcated into a paradigm a man is decides the degree to which a man ignores real world data because this data does not fit withing the paradigm.

Turbulent times arise because new players change rules and seek to install their paradigm to keep their newly acquired power. Many do not see changes happening and reply upon their existing paradigm to play what has become a new game. Enough new winners emerge during these times who support the new rules. Yet, because they refuse to lose their old paradgim, many others become losers, those who rejected the truth that change happened.

Stock exchanges are casinos. Through time, players must lose to the house -- any randomly chosen player's real return must be lower than the actual return from playing ("investing") since the house takes its cut to pay financial intermediares, suppliers.

Popular information persuades the masses into holding false beliefs by amplifying their sentiment, whether that sentiment is fearful or greedy.

Having expectation makes a difference in whether a man tries or not, how long a man persists in the face of failing, and the way a man interacts with others. Having belief about a positive future moves a man to act and attempt to achieve, even if the likelihood of success is low.

Profit turning requires discovery of favorable bets prior to the running of any race -- when the public's belief underestimates the metaphysical odds of true winning. A smarter man bet's his beliefs. This man bets when he has an edge over the public. When faced with a choice of bets, the smarter man chooses the one with the highest geometric means of outcome.

What counts is knowing the rules and topography; the taboos and paradigms of players that moves them to act or not act.

postscript

Oh, and Free Markets work because there exists a equal chance of a payoff to all players, not an equal payout to all players. In Free Markets, each man can amass according to his will, wit and skill. Free Markets push the greatest experiement of mixing energy, matter, ideas, beliefs, skills, wits and wills.

Sadly the rest of this piece does not yield to critical analysis - too many misleading and conflicting statements. You can do better.