I watch the GBP against the EUR intently as I pick it as an early fault line (is it Soros time again?). Maybe a new poor man's Euro 2 can worked up for the asset bubblers of Ireland, Spain, Hungary, Italy and the poms?

But I can't see the AUD carrying much less risk, both given a likely decline in minerals demand that causes a sharp deterioration in our terms of trade, and a sharp amplification caused by carry trade panic. The kiwi failure to recycle their offshore RMBS borrowings has already left them hanging out to dry like Iceland but the Aussie controlled banks will be indirectly leaning on our reserve for that too.

Even if we grant that China pushes against the people's nature to unlock local savings and uncovers even greater domestic economic spending, they surely won't overcome the pending deep cuts in export related production, an Olympic hangover (like we experienced after Sydney), and the wrapping up of some pretty big 1 off infrastructure projects like 3 gorges that took years of forward planning.

I wish I had clues as to why US oil refiner share prices are going up, when they might be expected to decline like our Caltex, given stagflation expectations are now prominent in daily market news on both sides. Is the US market really dialling in a short term turnaround or is it to do with inventories?

With the bulk of Chinese growth now oriented to the domestic market rather than to exports, at first glance I have to agree with Dan. I made the same point yesterday in the forum but of course I could be wrong.

Key questions:

What is the extent and likely impact of speculators ?

Can buyers join together (monopolistically) to negotiate cheaper prices?

What is the correlation between price and new sources of supply that are coming on stream?

Likelihood and impact of the Europeans following the US into a long period of stagflation.