Stronger U.S. Dollar Suits Chinese Buyers of Real Assets


Back to the status quo ante, as Yogi Berra might say.

The U.S. dollar may experience a reprieve in 2007, if only because so many people own it and do not want to see their dollars devalued. As the charts below show, developing countries, while gaining exposure to the strong euro, still prefer the dollar.

And then there’s China. With one trillion dollars in foreign currency reserves (most of them U.S. greenbacks) the Chinese have about a trillion reasons to fear inflation in the dollar. This erodes their purchasing power. But maybe 2007 is setting up quite nicely for the Chinese, after all.

 If the dollar rallies, this will lead to falling or at least more stable commodity prices. The Chinese can then carefully go on a global resource shopping spree (as they have for the last three years) trading stronger paper dollars for temporarily weak real assets (oil, gas, minerals, factories, capital.)

At least that’s how we’d play it if were running China’s economy. We’re not. But it makes sense to us. Make sense to you?



(source for both charts, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)


Dan Denning
Dan Denning examines the geopolitical and economic events that can affect your investments domestically. He raises the questions you need to answer, in order to survive financially in these turbulent times.

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8 years 8 months ago

If the sale of oil is switched to the Euro the dollar will collapse,The American economy is going to get much worse.
I believe it is contrived.In order To bring about the North American union.when Americans start to bleed and the North American Union is agreed upon, the dollar will soar.the only factor they need to watch for is oil being sold in euros.Iraq got a taste of what that means so will Iran. unfortunately this is the world we live in , according to my calculations.

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