That stock prices depend so much on the availability of cheap financing shows you how much of the economy has become ‘financialised’, that is, dependent on leverage for investment returns rather than organic business growth or capital investment. It also shows you why stocks are not in the clear yet from credit market troubles. This applies to Australia, too.
“The world financial crisis is choking the flow of foreign capital on which Australia's banks have depended to finance their growth over the past decade,” writes David Uren in today’s Australian. He goes on to show that Australian banks are paying a higher price to borrow money in international markets. This leads to higher interest rates at home.
“The major Australian banks depend upon foreign markets for about 30 per cent of their funding, with smaller banks making less use of this source,” Uren writes. Does it seem odd to you that Australian banks are borrowing money from abroad to lend it at home? Why not just lend based on savings deposits from Australian depositors?
The answer there is that you might not get a huge boom in housing lending unless you can borrow capital from abroad and re-lend it at home (at slightly higher rates, of course). Australia, by the way, borrows as well as anyone in the world. The housing boom was built with foreign money. But the whole economy is built with borrowed money.
The chart below is taken from a speech given by Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Rick Battellino in late September. It shows two things. First, in the last twenty years credit growth in Australia is the third highest in the developed world. Second, credit has been growing, on average, 5 points faster than GDP. Seeing is believing:
Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia
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About the Author
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). He began his financial publishing career in 1997 and has covered financial markets form Baltimore, Paris, London and, beginning in 2005 Melbourne. He’s the editor of The Daily Reckoning Australia and the Publisher of Port Phillip Publishing.
Comment by novosonic on 17 December 2007:
outside that the fed fix rate seems +/- 3 points higher in australia than in washington d.c.; i wonder who has the better chance of staying out of debtors prison in the long run !
ron paul ron paul vote for ron
Comment by Rob of Brisbane on 17 December 2007:
The chart above just goes to prove that we in the Western world are lucky enough to have the super affluent lifestyle is living on borrowed money and borrowed time. Sooner or later equilibrium will have to be met. In that I mean our standard of living will drop while the third world rises and we meet half way distributing wealth across the world more evenly. This will shatter many people’s dreams and aspirations in the first world. Many will not accept this and use force to maintain there lifestyle such as the Iraq war but in the end time always wins out.
Comment by Commenter on 17 December 2007:
I'll say the Credit crisis could hit Aus stocks, how about Centro Property today down 77%! Ouch.
Comment by christina on 18 December 2007:
Robert Kiyosaki says that people who expect that the future will be the same as the past are fools. I couldnt agree more!
Comment by novosonic on 18 December 2007:
money make money.
time is money.
have a prosperous new year.