Cyprus: An Old Fashioned Crisis in Europe

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‘It looks like a botched and improvised job, and unprofessional – groping in the dark without much consideration of what sort of signal it sends,’ says Alessandro Leipold, a former International Monetary Fund official. He was talking, of course, about Europe’s plan to bailout Cyprus by raiding the bank accounts of savers.

‘That’s no way to really run a crisis.’

We disagree! A good crisis is like a mystery movie. It requires unexpected plot turns and surprise revelations. You also need villains, victims, and dead bodies. We have all the makings of a great thriller in Europe!

The villains are playing the double role of Keystone Cops. Incompetent and bungling politicians are trying to ‘fix’ the situation by committing more crimes. The victims are mostly savers who made the silly mistake of thinking that when you put your money in the bank, it’s your money. As our colleague Nick Hubble pointed out yesterday, a depositor in a bank is really just an unsecured creditor.

You can imagine the surprise someone would have upon finding out that your money can be taken from you without your consent. It’s the sort of thing that causes bank runs. It also makes investors nervous. Japanese stocks were down 2.71% yesterday. The S&P/ASX 200 fell over 2% (to the delight of Murray Dawes, who’s been waiting for this trade for months). Both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 were down in New York trading.

The wealth-stealing elites of Europe are now furiously back-pedaling to prevent Cyprus from becoming Lehman Brothers – the signature event that started a crisis. Monday was a bank holiday in Cyprus. Now, the government says banks will remain closed until Thursday while politicians try to work out a deal that exempts depositors with less than €100,000 from the ‘just’ bank levy.

The new deal would increase the levy on deposits to 12.5% but reduce the levy on smaller deposits to ‘just’ 3% – or about the rate of inflation, according to the Financial Times. This would placate the masses. And what are the rich going to do about it anyway? If they haven’t already taken their money out of the country, it will be hard to do now.

Let’s not forget the Russians. Russian nationals have as much as $31 billion stored in Cypriot banks, according to Moody’s. That means they’ll be paying close to $4 billion of the total ‘bail-in’ tab. That’s a steep price to pay for keeping your money. You might even call it a ransom.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is more direct. ‘We should say this directly: this simply looks like the confiscation of other people’s money,’ he said. It doesn’t just ‘look’ like it. That’s what it is. And it’s business as usual for a country with a broken banking system or a broke government.

You take the cash where you can find it. It could be a pension fund, or private property. But the obvious place to look is bank accounts. Sure, it’s brazen. But who dares wins, no?

That said, we wouldn’t want to cross the Russians on this. Germany’s Angela Merkel appears to be the driving force behind the Cyprus deal. She has an election in September. Before then, she has to ‘look’ like she’s not spending endless amounts of German money bailing out Southern European governments and economies.

But this puts the Germans at odds with the Russians again. Historically, that hasn’t worked out well for Europe, to have the Germans and the Russians coming to blows over money. We note that the Germans waited until the end of a cold European winter to make their move on Russian money in Cyprus. It doesn’t take the Russians long to turn the gas switch ‘off’ to Western Europe.

Stay tuned. A good old fashioned economic crisis in Europe has a history of turning into a political crisis. And a political crisis can become anything quite quickly. Our advice to Frau Merkel: don’t poke the bear!

Regards,
Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Join me on Google Plus

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Dan Denning
Dan Denning examines the geopolitical and economic events that can affect your investments domestically. He raises the questions you need to answer, in order to survive financially in these turbulent times.
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6 Comments on "Cyprus: An Old Fashioned Crisis in Europe"

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geo
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♦the interesting thing about this is the outrage people have when the government steals their money directly. If Cyprus could still print their own currency they could achieve the same ends simply by printing money, and although the end result would be exactly the same, nobody would care. Such is life.

slewie the pi-rat
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suppose a Cyprus depository fails.

depositors can’t get made whole by the failed institution. counter-party failure 101.

who pays the “deposit insurance” on all accounts up to EUR 100K?

as far as i know [and i’m not 100% certain, OK?] that would be Cyprus.

in other words, Ms. Merkel, the EU, IMF, ECB, and all the swells in brux-elles are merely pointing out ‘Reality 101′.

this is REALLY Cyprus’ problem. they are in the soup of having issued STATE guarantees of these deposits to 100K EUR.

Cyprus.
in.
the.
S.O.U.P.

Ross
Guest

They are jockeying for who gets took down mostest Slewie….

Then comes the kiwi plan to deal with the Aussie 4 pillar off balance sheet banking misadventure and kiwi housing bubble:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1303/S00306/national-planning-cyprus-style-solution-for-new-zealand.htm

So immediately down goes the AUD in concert with the Cyprus vote. Down goes oil. Then we read that under current rules the top banks capital deficit is only 6 months worth of reserve bank liquidified profits.

Well that’s all right then, and the plunge protection team has the NYSE up 3 at the close.

Steve
Guest
Ever since year 2002 I started to realize a new normal emerging. In 2007 when the Housing Crisis and all the Fraud that our bloved Gov did not prosecute, that confirmed my fears. So in Amerika I took all the money out of my bank except for the absolute minimum, bought Gold and Silver coin invested in Municipal Bond Fund to have some interest to spend, quit my tax paying job and became self employed. Moved close to the Mexican border and will buy a little farm there after I finish my language courses. As I watched the Occupy Movement… Read more »
Ross
Guest

APRA now want this done by April.

http://www.apra.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/11_30.aspx

The mechanism to aggregate the accounts in order to measure and limit depositor protection.

Lachlan
Guest

Glad you agree Ross, as long as the Dow is up and guard dog APRA is keeping my goodies safe I will sleep well. Ah wot a wonderful world.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/03/apra-swings-wildly-at-macroprudential/

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