The Dow Jones Industrials has had its worst June since the Great Depression. The index is down 9.4% this month, although that is not as bad as June 1930, when it fell 18%.
The Dow is only 30 major companies. But in two important ways it shows that the U.S. model for prosperity over the last 50 years is in big trouble. While this certainly affects Australia, it is not entirely bad news.
The first blow to the U.S. model is the decline of General Motors (NYSE: GM), a company that is, in many ways, the epitome of the large, vertically integrated, post-World War Two major U.S. corporation. GM has made more money in recent years as a finance company than a car company. That's because it's hard to make money making cars when labour is so much cheaper over seas...and when you are selling massive cars at just the time petrol is getting more expensive.
It's hard to believe that it's impossible for GM to make money. Toyota makes money making cars and wages in Japan are higher than wages in Mexico or China. But GM has many legacy costs and is itself a house- divided, half-ageing industrial manufacturer and half modern finance company. Both are endangered species. That's why the stock fell to a 54-year low yesterday.
The other blow to the American model is seen in the 6% decline in Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares. Rome didn't fall in a day either. But Citigroup is now at a ten-year low, facing billions more in losses, and literally looking to recapitalize its business (and transfer ownership and future earnings) to Sovereign Wealth Funds from the Middle East.
To review: big American firms can't make money making things. Big American firms can't make money lending money. Those are two formidable challenges for the rest of the year. In fact, they are two big challenges, full stop. Industrial economy: splat. Financial economy: splat. What's left?
Of course there are some U.S. firms that can and will compete in the global economy. But what we're pointing out again is how competitive the world has become. Nobody ever got rich consuming more than producing. For investors, this means broadening your horizons to the many stocks listed all over the globe that are not correlated to the U.S. story...and that are making things.
Fortunately, Aussies have a lot to choose from. The downside is that a global slowdown hurts everyone. The upside is that the growth in industrial production in the developing world is a perfect fit for Aussie resource producers.
The risks? As one reader put in an e-mail this morning, maybe we aren't just facing Peak Oil or Peak Food or Peak Water, but Peak Man. That is, is it really possible that there are more people on this planet than its resources can support?
Our answer to that is no. But it's a long answer, so you'll have to wait for the rest of until Monday. As bad as the markets are, we suspect the sun will still come up tomorrow. Here's hoping...
Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia
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Related Articles:
- General Electric & Lift Capital Usher in Rough Start for ASX
- Peak Oil – The Rewards
- GM Insolvency Can’t be Run-of-the-mill
- The Depression Now Known as “The Great Correction”
- America’s Decline as a Great Empire
About the Author
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). He began his financial publishing career in 1997 and has covered financial markets form Baltimore, Paris, London and, beginning in 2005 Melbourne. He’s the editor of The Daily Reckoning Australia and the Publisher of Port Phillip Publishing.
Comment by RJR on 28 June 2008:
One must not forget that GM has to be pretty profitable (to its debtors) just to keep paying the interest of its massive debts.
Comment by watcher7 on 28 June 2008:
We may be near a great 'buying' opportunity.
Technology stocks and especially Microsoft look promising according to my favourite market analyst.
He also points out that the Coppock Guide is in even more negative territory - a potential buy signal.
The Elliottwave people have just had a free week which also could be a bullish signal.
Looking at history we see that big busts occur during Republican Administrations.
While the response by the White House and the Central Banks after October 2007 high - interest rates and tax ‘cuts’ - has echos of post October 1929, contributing to a suckers’ rally, I still think we are in, or about to, leave the crisis that leads to the final rally to a new nominal Dow high before the severest bear market to ever hit the United States begins.
If history holds then John McCain will be elected President and the stockmarket crash will begin in either the first or second year of his presidency - contributing another chapter to “Boom and Bust Republicans”.
Comment by Smack MacDougal on 30 June 2008:
A Stocks Exchange like NYSE or like NASDAQ is a casino and nothing more.
Most Common Stocks do not pay dividends. Many more other stock classes exist ahead of Common Stocks in rights to claim cash from liquidating assets in a bankruptcy, Common Stocks amount to gambling chips.
The only way for prices of Common Stocks (which are games) to rise happens when [1] net cash handled rises [2] share float falls in face of constant cash.
The Stock Exchange Casino Gambler needs only one "buy signal". More money must come into the Casino and get bet than money leaving the casino.
When does this condition happen? More money becomes available when Efficiency of Money inceases -- growth of new Commerical Credit relative to Money in Circulation -- notes, coins.
Until such an event, folks with stockpiles of cash, bet on games for future inputs of manufacturing, farming and transporting.
All of the so-called "technical indicators" and "company fundamentals" are illusory stories told to suckers and believed by suckers.
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