If I recall well, in about mid-1970s to early-1980s several journal articles appeared, most memorably, in Harvard Business Review. Those articles offered some exegesis for what Wiggin is describing above on a national level, but articles were focused on business cycles.

An example is Karl Weick's extensive opus on cycles of order (several years duration), thence cycles of chaos (instability)... Those cycles are essentially non deterministic periodic flow (NDPF: essentially raw stochastics of wave patterns of system cycles) covered in depth by James Gleick in his renowned textbook 'Chaos.'

Even though Weick and perhaps Gleick were focusing on business vis-a-vis scientific cycles of chaos, it appears sensible to hoist their notions up to national levels.

I agree with Wiggin that USA has been durationally stable for far too long and a correction of locally catastrophic proportions appears in order. But globalization has made power houses of China, India, Russia, etc. Even Australia whom I am happy to see become an economic global power.

I would argue, though, that USA will have a much smaller impact than otherwise, due that globalization. China and India alone as consumers simply dwarf USA. Yes their standards of living are lower. But those standards are growing. So their value as consumers probably compensates massively for any temporary (chaotic) losses of US consumers.

Our national leadership in US is just incompetent, in almost all ways. It's obvious when VP's ejaculate "Deficits do not matter," and "spending is all there is..." Both in my mind are simply wrong and idiotic.

Our Congress spent all of our Social Security Trust funds. Almost none of us have any savings (I am an exception, in that regard.). Almost all of us have unsustainable debts. Almost all of us have interest rate burdens which are key disablers of sustained fiscal stability for any nation. This list is endless, especially when one observes irresponsible spending on 'the Iraq war.'

Trouble, right here, in River City.

However, my main point is that stability and chaos are at least partially cyclic (in an NDPF sense described above). We (US and other nations) have a huge opportunity here to learn from USA's national management failures.

My state of Indiana went bankrupt in 1800s. It learned a lesson of fiscal responsibility and debt management.

I would guess that most folk in Indiana compared to other 51 states and territories are better prepared for our imminent periods of chaos.

Thanks for your excellence in writing and publication!

I wish Australia and other nations as little harm as possible while we right our foundering ship of state.

Sincerely,

Doug Renselle

Carmel, INdiana, 46033
USA
Phone number on request.