Economy Not Going Back to Normal Any Time Soon

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The stock market seems to be rolling over. Investors read the news. It’s probably becoming clear to them that the economy is not going back to normal any time soon.

Yesterday, the Dow lost another 131 points. Another big day down and it will be in the 7,000-range. Oil sank too – down to $62. The dollar, bonds, and gold stayed about where they were.

Economists are still talking about an “exit strategy.” But in view of what is actually going on in the economy, they’ll probably want to stay on this highway a lot longer. This is the long road to ruin, of course. It may be fatal, but it is not – yet – unpopular.

Broadly, what is happening is exactly what should be happening.

The stock market rally is getting old…and may have already peaked out. The consumer is running out of time, money and credit. He has no choice but to cut back. Savings rates are rising fast – from zero to about 5% of disposable income.

Naturally, businesses are finding it hard to make sales. Earnings are collapsing…stock dividends are down sharply…

…and of course, businesses try to cut expenses by lightening up on their payroll.

When the correction began, it was led by losses in the financial sector. Those losses led to cutbacks throughout the economy. Now, it’s the cutbacks that are leading to financial losses. The economy followed the markets; now the markets follow the economy. Investors are realizing that their favorite companies will find it hard to prosper in this new economic environment.

“US consumers fall behind on loans at record pace,” says a Reuters headline. Delinquencies are going up on a wide range of household debt. Debtors have never had such a hard time keeping up with payments. Credit
card delinquencies, for example, are running at 6.6%.

Well…duh.

And no wonder “banks get stingy on credit,” as reported in the USA Today. “Despite massive government efforts to bolster the credit market, banks are pulling back severely on card lending,” begins the front-page article.

Once again, we see the feds’ plans failing. They give trillions to the bankers; the bankers cut back on consumer credit. And why shouldn’t they? They can see what the rest of us see – the consumer can’t keep up with the debt he’s got already.

“Consumers aren’t going to be able to save the U.S. economy this time,” The Richebacher Letter’s Rob Parenteau reminds us.

“Total U.S. retail sales have rolled back to levels we haven’t seen since 2005. Imagine if every single retail shop opened in the last three years shut down overnight. It’s already that bad.

“A lot of people, from Wall Street to Washington, have a great deal invested in you believing we can reverse that trend. But, in actuality, the freeze in consumer spending and the consumer economy could actually take many more years to thaw.”

At least, the consumer has wised up. He’s sick of debt. He’s seen where that road leads. What he wants is to get out of debt…to be free…to be safe.

It’s the government that remains stuck in deep illusion… The feds know that it was too much credit that got consumers into trouble. Their solution? Give them more credit! The banks are issuing fewer credit cards than they did last year – 38% fewer. They’re pushing credit limits down too – the average limit on a new
card is down 3% so far this year.

Instead of passing money on to customers, the banks are using the feds’ free cash to build up their own reserves…raise their salaries…and pass out bonuses. Makes sense. What else could they do with it?

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.
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Comments

  1. “Yesterday, the Dow lost another 131 points. Another big day down and it
    will be in the 7,000-range”.

    That’s an awfully big day …

    Reply
  2. Yeah Michael but most people will wait until they are savaged bears before they exit. At S&P 500 = 880 the bears are drooling and almost in charge.

    Reply
  3. I do see the light at the end of the tunnel. We must keep the faith and believe that the economy will bounce back.

    Reply

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