Comments on: Every Bear Market Has a Surprise

By: Pete

Pete — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 04:31:25 +0000

Yes you seem to be right there Greg. This is a correlation that does not imply causality.

Some of us are pretty keen to jump on the statistical bandwagon.

Whilst I agree with your analysis, I still believe that the 2000's were a time of extravagance, however this is not so easily proven statistically

By: Greg Atkinson

Greg Atkinson — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:45:23 +0000

Pete, the data could also be a reflection of the rise of single person households, longer working hours, change in social habits, change in diet etc. I am just getting a bit weary now of every upwards trend being used to indicate the collapse of the world
I notice they also neglect to include the number of salary earners as this is just as applicable as the head of population. (i.e if you have more people working then it seems logical that more people hit the town)

By: Pete

Pete — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:27:16 +0000

I agree Greg. But the thing I take from the graph is just that this period was a time of extravagance. I think the full-service restaurant thing is indicative of people having too much money to spend.

If people are short on cash, they tend to eat cheaper meals at home.

Not sure how the fast-food restaurants figure in that though, and not even sure if that supports or refutes what I said.

By: Greg Atkinson

Greg Atkinson — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:14:40 +0000

Nice manipulation of the chart there..I wonder if you could squeeze 16 years into any less space on the x axis? How about you plot ATM usage as well...I mean some people are really looking anywhere for gloom these days So your point is more Americans eat out...yes..so?

By: Fred

Fred — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 01:40:42 +0000

Speaking of "the language of the markets"; I hate the word "ON". I hate how typical media outlets always use those lousy half-assed, part-truth-part-distraction phrases such as "X is up on Y" or "A is down on B". Lame, Lame! LAME!! Too lame to actually commit to writing "Y caused X" or "B caused A" - but love to imply it, as if they know something. But then those pontificating morons don't actually know what causes what, and might get their pants sued off if they actually tried to speak some sense. Keep up the good work DR and don't stoop to "ON".

By: Bertie

Bertie — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:46:08 +0000

All will be well if one holds gold, I have that on good authority.

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