They were valuable because they helped frame where we are in the mortgage crisis, which has been the main shark in the water over the past couple of years. You should know where that shark is and whether or not it is hungry. The chart below shows you the ferocious fish may still have an appetite.

It shows you that we are past the viscous subprime crisis, when that shark chewed through the balance sheets of a number of banks and financial institutions, in some cases devouring them whole. However, it is not yet safe to get back in the water:

There are these other slices of mortgages that are not quite as risky as subprime that reset in the next couple of years. Years 2010 and 2011 face big resets in so-called Alt-A and Option ARM loans. What this means is more write-downs and more losses for banks and others who hold these mortgages.

Making all this worse is the fact that the housing has not yet recovered. The T2 duo made the case that the current "stabilization" of the housing market is a head fake. Mostly, it's due to huge government support of the housing market. But there is still a large inventory of homes out there. And with these resets coming due, we've still got a large amount of foreclosures on the horizon.

All the while, the unemployment numbers are still poor. The T2 duo calls the unemployment situation the "most severe since the Great Depression." The US economy has shed over 8 million jobs in this recession and unemployment - officially - is nearly 10%.

Plus, it's not like the average US consumer is in a good position to sail through this crisis. Household liabilities are still high, as this next chart shows:

US consumers need to save and rebuild their financial strength. This is why the savings rate is on the rise. This is why, for the first time since the 1950s, household credit debt declined.

As investors, it seems clear that any idea that depends on discretionary consumer spending - say, buying trendy new sweaters or watches or expensive shoes - faces some big head winds. Better to the stick with the necessities, I say.

Also, it looks like the bounce in the stock prices of overleveraged banks and financial institutions is premature. Most bank stocks should be sold, not bought. The bounce in home building stocks looks ridiculous in light of what they have to look forward to. The T2 duo actually recommended shorting the home building stocks through the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB). By shorting it, you make money when the stock prices of the home builders go down.

They made a compelling case, of which I will highlight a few things. Exhibit A would be the fact that the average new home has been on the market for 12.9 months. Exhibit B is that we have about 2-3 years of existing home sales just to absorb the vacancies that exist. According to T2, about 6% of all homes built this decade are vacant.

Exhibit C is that the home builders themselves have too much debt and too much inventory relative to their thin equity cushions. The home builders are in the position of trying to hold up a bowling ball with a sheet of paper...in the rain.

Lastly, the home builder stocks are almost universally expensive on a price-to-book basis, as this chart shows:

Stocks with lots of debt, too much inventory and an awful market don't deserve premiums over book value. Discounts are more like it.

So there you go. I like the idea of shorting the home builders. At the very least, I wouldn't buy one. I'd also stay away from banks and financial institutions that hold mortgage assets. American real estate is not worth zero, as Dobson said, but it can be worth a lot less than today's price.

I recommend staying with the sorts of companies that own essential assets and/or sell essential items. As I like to say, stick with what keeps civilization a going concern. And avoid any stock that is dependent on regular access to the credit markets. As we saw in 2008, a mortgage crisis can shut down the credit markets. We don't want to be held hostage by lenders in that situation, so stick with excellent financial conditions.

Regards,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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The stock market rallied throughout most of yesterday's trading session, then stumbled into the close. This pattern has become unnervingly familiar of late. It's true that the Dow has only dipped 2% since closing a notch above 10,000 on October 19, but the decline feels a bit worse than that. Maybe that's because so many midday rallies have turned into late-day selloffs.

Or maybe the market feels so weak because it IS so weak. Most of the broad indices like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite are down more than 5% from their recent highs. Meanwhile, former market leaders like the BKX Index of financial stocks have tumbled more than 10% from their recent highs. These corrections aren't devastating, just discomforting.

Every rational investor knows that the market recovered much more ground from its March lows than economic fundamentals warranted. But that doesn't automatically mean that the market is a "sell." Maybe it is just a "do nothing for a while." Your editors are agnostic on this topic. But almost no one else seems to be. When the stock market becomes as volatile as it has been lately, every stock market commentator from Pensacola to Pismo Beach trots out a forecast - usually based upon stock charts that show trendlines, resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement points, stochastic indicators etc.

Unfortunately, the identical price charts can yield completely opposite forecasts. Show us a trendline, and we'll show you two emphatic forecasts - one bullish, one bearish. Both forecasts will be honest and informed by experience, but only one of them will be correct.

That said, our friends over at "Penny Trends" delivered a very persuasive (and bearish) forecast yesterday, based on a very clever technical indicator:

"The market is rolling over... The transformation is amazing... Our list of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is one of the best tools we've ever developed for determining the trends in the markets. By distilling the investment universe into just 87 'baskets' of stocks, and then ranking them by three-month performance, we get a fantastic sense of the big picture. We can tell immediately if investors are building optimism or sinking into pessimism. And we can see which individual sectors and markets are strong and which are weak by the way they react relative to one another. For example...

"A month ago, the five best-performing ETFs in the world were showing an average three-month gain of 34%, while the five worst-performing ETFs in the world were showing an average loss of just 8%. Now, the five best-performing ETFs are up an average of just 17%. The bottom five are down an average 15%. In other words, uptrends are getting weaker and downtrends are getting stronger. It means the market is probably rolling over.

"Here's another way of looking at the same thing: The 87 ETFs we monitor represent every major currency, stock market, sector, and commodity. A month ago, only eight of the ETFs on our list were showing a three-month loss. That means 79 were showing a three-month gain. Now, 22 ETFs are in negative territory and only 55 are in positive territory...another strong sign the market is rolling over."

But don't let this forecast bring you down, dear investor. Things could be worse. The stock market could be just as bad as the housing market.

"But wait just a minute!" some readers may protest. "Isn't the housing market recovering?"

Well, sort of. Prices are no longer in freefall. But a sustainable recovery still seems like a delusional hope...especially when one considers that there's a lot more pain to come in the mortgage market.

Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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We're back in civilization... Wait...you call this civilization? Looks more like Bubble Land again!

Gold is headed towards $1,100...

Bonds are soft...so is the dollar...

Speaking of old friends, Marc Faber says he's long the dollar. Faber thinks the buck is over-sold. It could rise 10% in this last quarter.

But the Fed says it will keep interest rates low for an "extended period." So there is still no sign of the kind of policy turnaround that might send the greenback back up.

Instead, we'll have to wait until the bubble pops!

Oil is over $80...

Republicans are winning elections...

Hey, party like it was 2006...

The Dow is moving back up, too...and so are all the world's markets...led by Asian stocks. China is booming...with its stocks up 4 days in a row...

The rise in gold comes as India's central bank does the smart thing. Central banks need reserves. And historically, the only reserve a central bank can trust is gold. Putting US dollars in your vault - instead of gold - is a little like laying in a supply of lettuce to tide you over in a bad harvest year. Imagine what would have happened if pharaoh had stocked up on radicchio instead of grain? Those 7 lean years would have been a lot leaner than they were.

The Chinese have seen what happens when you rely on dollars for a reserve. You're stuck. Because your reserves can wilt fast.

The Indians have a better idea - they're buying gold.

The metal has outperformed stocks and bonds this year as it heads for the ninth straight annual gain. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 15 percent in 2009 through yesterday while returns on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note are down 5.7 percent.

Gold may average $1,125 in 2010, "with strong investment demand anchored by a negative real-interest-rate environment and probable central bank purchases," analysts at Toronto-based Desjardins Securities Inc. said in a report.

And here's another interesting item we found when we got back to an Internet connection: "Companies that become too big, complicated and debt-ridden should be allowed to 'creatively destruct,'" says our friend Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan.

Taleb likens the process to natural selection. "Why is it that there are no land animals bigger than an elephant?" he asks. "Because nature doesn't permit it. Bigger animals die off. Likewise, the market system disposes of companies that are 'too big to fail.' It gets rid of them."

Unfortunately, says Taleb, the US government is impeding this natural process. The government is preventing the bankruptcies of large corporations that would clear the way for a new generation of healthier, more nimble, corporate organisms. Furthermore, these trillion-dollar bailouts are polluting the financial ecosystem with toxic piles of debt.

"We're not destroying debt," Taleb complains. "When you move it into the government, it stays in the government and that's a problem."

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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So we're moving. And we're moving people. We're moving.

But where are we moving to? It looks like another mini-bubble. The market seemed prime for a fall in conjunction with a U.S. dollar rally. That could still happen if the U.S. employment report tomorrow is a shocker.

A negative employment will remind everyone that this recovery (if it can properly be called) that is still largely a jobless one. The process of reducing household debt is going to take years and not months if households can't grow their incomes. Real wage growth (adjusted for inflation) is pretty hard to come by in most of the Western world (unless you run a bank).

All this adds up to lower household spending ahead. How much further ahead can stock prices get of corporate profits that may never materialise? We'll see. But valuations are already stretched. Investment advisor Jeremy Grantham reckons fair value on the S&P 500 is around 860 - or 24% lower than yesterday's close at 1,066.

But whether the market breaks up or down here (something Murray has been looking out with his technicals) is up to investors. There is a huge cash position on the sidelines that's still worried to jump back into markets. For the bear to really do his work, he's got to convince these people to get into the market. The Fed is helping by making cash a wasting asset (when you figure in inflation).

Thinking out loud, then, you could make a case for new highs on the market as this cash mountain moves into equities. We saw a chart on Sunday at the opening of the conference hosted by the Gold Standard Institute which showed that the amount of cash on the sidelines exceeded the total market cap of the Wilshire 5,000 (a broad measure of the market value of all U.S. equities).

In layman's terms, it means there is more money in cash right now than there is equity in U.S. companies. Now, there is a very good reason investors are reducing their allocation to stocks. As we've said before, we think the equity premium - what people are willing to pay for stocks - is regressing to the mean. It was so high for so long because corporate cash flows in the second half of the last century benefitted so much from low interest rates and globalisation.

But even if the equity premium is collapsing, it wouldn't take a small change in that cash position to power equities much, much higher. In fact, if the investors holding that cash realise that inflation is a bigger risk than over-valued stocks, they may decide to get out of cash anyway, despite the risk of being in the market.

In any case, we are not suddenly becoming bullish. But we are suddenly thinking that the next phase of this GFC (other than the sovereign debt crisis) is to lure investors back into an equity rally. Whether they are prodded by negative real interest rates on short-term deposits, or lured by equity markets lurching ahead with the backing of the dollar carry trade, well that doesn't really matter.

It could all be moving on up.

What's really worth watching is how the commodities behave in this market. They are moving on up too. This means gold is shedding its image as a risk-aversion asset and becoming something that people want to own. Its allocation in household and institutional portfolios is going up too. And of course, trading cash for things is probably a good trade these days, no matter whose cash you have in your wallet.

We'll have to cut it short today as other deadlines press. But beware. The bear is afoot and he is making mischief. He is doing is devilish best to convince investors that he's hibernating. After all, the November to April period is usually when stocks do their best.

This year has been unusual because, thanks to the Fed, stocks had a great six months during a time when they generally don't do much. It's unnatural you might say. But so are current fiscal and monetary policy, we might say.

We might also say that there is something tawdry about insisting that modern living standards are not negotiable and must be preserved with high public sector debt. In effect, today's policy makers are saying to the future, "Our current well-being and comfort is more important than any debt you may have to repay. We refuse to live within our means because it would inconvenience us to do so. We are too lazy and selfish to recognise our financial mistakes and pay for them. We're going to leave that to you. Suckers!"

It's not very nice. It's not very moral. But it is what it is. And right now, it gives you the chance to prepare your portfolio for the consequences of bad policy (fiscal, monetary, climate...take your pick!) More on all of it next week. Until then!

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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According to Goldman Sachs, robust 2010 oil demand growth will deplete these inventories over the next 12-to-18 months and diminishing production rates in key areas around the world will create a supply/demand imbalance.

The top portion of the nearby chart shows the decline in production from the world's top 230 projects. After peaking in 2009, production from these projects is set to fall for the next several years. Excluding OPEC countries (bottom portion of the chart), the decline rates will likely quadruple from 2007 to 2012.

Over that time period, non-OPEC production is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day. Only Brazil, Canada and the former countries of the Soviet Union are expected to see production growth.

One of the largest contributing factors for this is chronic decline rates from some of the world's top mature fields. Mexico's Cantarell field, one of the largest oil fields in the world, produced 30 percent less oil in 2008 than it did in 2007 - a trend that's expected to continue.

Norway, the world's 11th largest oil producer in 2008, saw its oil production peak in 2001 and is down 27 percent since. Another big producer, Venezuela's state-owned oil company PdVSA has seen annual decline rates of more than 25 percent in certain fields according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Adding to the dilemma, many countries without decline-rate issues have been holding out production increases until projects become more cost effective; this is why we recently saw Russia overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer.

The Saudis have been content to sit on the sidelines while awaiting the return of higher prices. The same goes for other OPEC countries; PIRA, an oil-industry consultant, says the cost of oil will have to rise above $80 per barrel in order for the cartel to increase production.

With oil prices currently hovering around that $80 level, OPEC officials have recently hinted that production increases aren't off the table for the cartel's upcoming December meeting.

But even if we see a production increase out of OPEC, decline rates from maturing fields and high barriers of entry to bring new fields online should keep the supply/demand balance tight for years to come.

Regards,

Evan Smith and Brian Hicks
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Contrary to popular mythology, we Californians do not live merely on love, sunshine and granola.

I mean, sure, we've all got our yoga mats, our quartz crystals and our "life coaches" (who doesn't?), but life is just so much more than "namastes" and positive energy. Life is also about building enough windmills (somewhere else) and installing enough solar panels (somewhere else) to keep our yoga studios air-conditioned.

And, yeah, I guess we need SOME crude oil, cause our Priuses cannot ALWAYS run on electricity. So I guess its fine to use crude oil if we have to, as long as we can obtain the oil in an ecologically friendly way...like getting it from somewhere else. (OMG, remember the Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969? That was a SERIOUS bummer!)

So, yes, we Californians certainly understand that we cannot break our dependence on crude oil overnight. At least not until some "next generation" process comes along that can convert text messages into jet fuel. And even if we Californians use less crude oil, someone else is bound to use more of it...like all those reckless industrialists in the Developing World. Don't they know how bad crude oil is for the environment?

But I guess there's just no reasoning with these people. So I guess we'll just have to keep finding and pumping crude oil for a long time to come.

Hmmm... I'm not sure how easy that's going to be. When I was out recycling newspapers the other day, I saw an old headline that said crude oil is becoming much harder to find...and that oil production is falling off rapidly at many of the world's largest fields.

So I did a little research and - would you believe - it's true. Crude oil is becoming much harder to find and much more expensive to produce.

Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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The kind people at Stratfor sent us a note informing of us such, but granting us permission to use it nonetheless. We sent them a note abjectly apologising for the mistake and thanking them for letting us use it. We've been a bit touchy on that issue ourselves lately. It was a great chart and they made a great point with. So if you're into that kind of macro-political analysis, tool over to the Stratfor website for a look.

So how about the Fed? It's carried on with its wayward monetary policy. And it's carried on with the carry trade by keeping short-term rates low.

In deciding to make hardly any changes to its interest rate policy or even the language from its last statement, the Fed is encouraging traders to resume the dollar carry trade. For now, it looks safe to borrow in low-yielding currencies like the U.S. dollar and invest in higher-yielding assets like the Australian dollar, emerging market stocks, and some bonds.

Go you bubble beauties!

It's hard to believe the Fed is wilfully stupid. The market, through the price of gold, has clearly communicated that it thinks U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is lousy. But rather than defend the U.S. dollar - indeed the integrity of U.S. monetary policy itself - the Fed is choosing to support asset prices through easy credit.

It's also possible that the Fed thinks a weak dollar will reduce America's trade deficit, boost its export competitiveness, and lead to higher employment. We think this is a pipe dream. And we're not talking about a lead pipe. We're talking William Blake-style opium.

But smoke and mirrors aside, does this mean we were wrong about our call last week for the end of the dollar carry trade? If the U.S. dollar index rallied, we expected to see a falling Aussie dollar, falling Aussie stocks, and (even though it's strange) rising U.S. bond prices. All the leveraged risk trades would unwind a bit as dollar shorts covered.

But now what? Is this the all clear for stock indices to make new highs as traders borrow money and plow it into markets to engineer huge returns for the end-of-year statements to investors? The early returns are inconclusive. The Dow was all over the shop, unable to make heads or tails of what the Fed's non-change means. Gold futures made a new nigh, though. And about that...

Gold is very popular lately. It's not returning our calls anymore. And when we see it in public, all it does is glitter and bask in the glow of so many new found admirers. That makes us very nervous, and perhaps a bit hurt. We stood by it all those years when no one loved it.

We like it all the same, although we're just friends now and it's based on gold's ability to preserve the purchasing power of our wealth, not any inherent beauty it may or may not have. But as a practical matter, when you enter a position as the asset is making a new high, you usually get hammered.

That's what happens when you go along with the crowd. It's an axiom that an asset has to make new highs...to make new highs. But it would be nice to buy gold on a correction. Perhaps, though, we are seeing a big shift in market psychology with respect to gold. India's purchase of IMF gold, as we reported yesterday, is just one sign of that shift.

One interesting result from the events of 2009, Murray Dawes mentioned last week, is that gold is decoupling from the U.S. dollar. He sent over the chart below. It shows that two times in the last five years, gold (the black line) has strengthened eve as the U.S. dollar index (the blue line) rallied. And each time after this period of dollar strength, gold then took off to a new move up.

Click to enlarge

Why does that matter? Well, gold usually moves up when the U.S. dollar moves up, and down when the U.S. dollar moves up. For gold to show strength when the dollar is strong shows that gold itself may be breaking out of its correlation to the greenback. And what would that tell you?

For traders, Murray is showing that the movement of the U.S. dollar is what Aussie stocks are keying off of. Thus, knowing where the dollar is headed tells you whether you should be long or short Aussie stocks (as a trader). Murray is sorting which stocks specifically are there for the trading (and in which direction).

But in the bigger picture, gold breaking its negative correlation with the USD would tell you that gold is being remonetised in the world financial system. It would tell you gold is appreciating against nearly all paper currencies. And it would tell you that even if we do see a U.S. dollar rally, you could still new highs in the gold price. You may also see gold break out in a major way in Australian dollars.

Above all, it shows you how valuable it is to own an asset that is not anyone else's liability. We are entering a global sovereign debt crisis because the world's large economies have been engaged in a multi-decade long competition to devalue their currencies. The cheaper your currency is relative to your trading partners, the cheaper your goods are and the higher your exports.

Overly the last fifty years, nearly every country in the world has engaged in some kind of currency manipulation to keep its currency cheap relative to the American dollar. That's because the American economy was the world's largest, and everyone wanted to sell into it.

America's economy is still big, of course. But a lot is changing, yet the currency manipulation has not caught up with the new economy reality. And Western Welfare states are still borrowing money as if emerging market creditors will be happy to fund fundamentally flawed fiscal policies for ever. Not likely. But tomorrow is another day. Until then...

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Last summer, Cameron Intl. announced it would acquire Natco Group for $780 million, or about 9 times trailing EBITDA. (EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It's a good rough measure of earnings power to use when comparing firms across a sector.)

It's been a while since we've seen some headline-grabbing acquisitions in this space. It's about time. Last summer, Precision Drilling bought Grey Wolf, a clunky land driller with old rigs, for 5.1 times EBITDA. And before that, we had a spate of deals north of 10 times EBITDA, including Hydril's purchase of Tenaris.

In the same view, we can buy Tesco - a quality oil field services company known for its cutting-edge technology - for under 3 times EBITDA. If Natco went for 9 times EBITDA, this one ought to go for no less. And that would mean a gain of 226% from here. Even without the acquisition, though, there is lot to like. Let's talk technology for a minute to understand just what Tesco does so well.

Tesco designs, makes, sells, rents and services top drives. A top drive is a motor that sits on top of rig and spins the drill. I don't want to get too geeked up in the technical aspects of this - if you're interested, there is plenty of detailed information on the company's Web site. The key thing to know is that top drives power the directional and horizontal drilling rigs that access unconventional natural gas reserves - all those shale plays. As more and more supply comes from shale plays, unconventional wells will grow much faster than conventional ones. Hence, a nice backdrop of demand for Tesco's top drives.

This is a big market with an installed base of over 3,000 top drives around the world. As time goes by, more and more rigs will have top drives, which provide some growth opportunities even if the total number of rigs stays flat. In particular, there is more opportunity in the land rigs than offshore.

Most of these existing top drives are from National Oilwell Varco. Tesco is No. 2. And Canrig, a division of Nabors, is No. 3. Tesco also rents top drives. In this business, it is top dog, with a rental fleet of about 126 top drives.

As for casing services, Tesco has a proprietary service that allows a driller to drill and case a well simultaneously. Casing a well means putting steel pipe down the well bore so the thing doesn't collapse on itself. The ability to drill and case at the same time cuts in half the number of days needed to complete a well. It's a big timesaver, and many expect the industry to adopt Tesco's technology, which would be a big boon to Tesco.

This casing technology really makes Tesco stand out from the pack. There is no other company with Tesco's technology. Tesco thinks that the market for this technology is in the billions. Currently, it's only about $50 million and growing. We've got a long runway here, though I think someone will buyout Tesco before too long.

I want to emphasize that these products are highly engineered and complex. Tesco owns a portfolio of over 80 patents and is developing another 120 patents to protect its proprietary applications. This is why I think of Tesco practically as a tech stock. And it's why Tesco deserves a premium valuation and remains a great acquisition for somebody. A much larger company, like a National Oilwell Varco, could take this know-how and apply it more widely over a larger customer base and push these products through its bigger distribution network.

About half of Tesco's business is from outside the US, which is holding up better than the US market in this mess. This recession also plays well to Tesco's strengths, because its tools cut the time needed to drill and complete a well, and help its customers make more money.

Also, Tesco's customers are mostly large firms - BP, EnCana, Petrobras, Occidental and the like. They are not the little guys who are going belly up. Tesco's customers are likely to remain active even in a relatively low-price environment.

As far as the financials go, there is not a lot to worry about here. The company has a strong balance sheet. Cash was $20.4 million at the end of the second quarter and debt was only $44 million. Tesco produces good cash flow and has low capital spending requirements - and most of that is discretionary. Management intends to finish the year with zero debt. So we have a company able to build cash even in this tough environment.

There are 38 million shares outstanding, and the stock trades for $8.50 as I write. That's a market cap of $319 million. Add in the net debt of $24.6 million and you can have the whole company for $345 million today (enterprise value, or EV). This year, the company will generate EBITDA of about $75-100 million. (Last year, EBITDA was $109 million). On a trailing EBITDA basis, Tesco trades for about 3.2 times EBITDA. Comparable companies would include Weatherford, Cameron, National Oilwell Varco and Natco, among others. As I pointed out earlier, Cameron bought Natco for 9 times trailing EBITDA. That kind of multiple gets you a $25 stock price for Tesco.

But you don't need the acquisition to make money when you buy at 4 times EBITDA or better. Cameron, for example, trades for 6 times EBITDA today. Even just getting back to a more normal historical multiple would put Tesco's stock closer to $15. It's just very cheap, especially when you consider the bright future ahead of it. It wasn't that long ago when people were talking about Tesco as a $40 stock.

This is not the retail sector, in which we have to figure out whether or not Tesco's next hot bluejeans are going to sell or whether customers will like the new store formats. We're talking about stuff you need to produce the oil and gas that keeps civilization a going concern. We're talking about highly engineered products that save customers a lot of dough. We're talking about a company that benefits from one of the great stories of our time: going ever deeper to reach untapped reservoirs of hydrocarbons once thought inaccessible. It's a heroic effort and the companies that can do it are going to make a lot of money - and so are their shareholders.

An added bonus: The executives and directors own 18% of the stock. So they have every incentive to maximize the value here. I'm betting they will.

Regards,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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The credit crisis seems to have exploded the traditional equilibrium between cash and debt. Of course, this "equilibrium" was no such thing, as corporate cash levels have been perilously low for years...at least in the finance sector.

But corporate chieftains are becoming attentive to danger, at least for now.

"The credit crisis seems to have put fear back in their spines," Chris remarks. "The 500 largest US companies - excluding financial firms - hold the largest cash hoard as a percentage of assets since 1960. The Wall Street Journal reports today that cash hoard is nearly $1 trillion, or about 10% of total assets. That was in the second quarter, for which we have full numbers. So far in the third quarter - with 248 of the 500 firms reporting - cash has increased to 11.1% of assets.

"Cash is the financial equivalent of a big, soft pillow," Chris continues. "It helps you sleep better at night. After the credit crisis turned small balance sheet leaks into lethal holes, executive suites around the country seem determined not to let that happen again. The Wall Street Journal highlights the case of Alcoa, the big aluminum producer. It sits on $1.1 billion in cash, up 28% from a year earlier. It cut its dividend, even though it is making money. The CFO said, 'We're just going to be extremely prudent.'

"But there might be another reason why the bigwigs sit on all that cash," Chris reasons. "They might just not see many good opportunities to invest in right now. In other words, the piling up of cash in America's corporate treasuries may just mirror the weak economy."

But Chris suspects these corporations won't pile up cash forever. Eventually, they will start itching to launch takeover deals. In fact, Chris points out, "We are already seeing a pickup in takeovers and mergers. Just last week, CF Industries, the fertilizer company, upped its bid for rival Terra Industries. The new offer is worth $200 million more and is mostly cash. Also last week, Denbury Resources offered $50 per share for Encore Acquisition - about $15 in cash and the rest in stock."

So even though the overall market seems richly priced at current levels, Chris has been setting his sights on a handful of names that look to him like ideal takeover candidates. T3 Energy Services is one of his favorites. He believes this leading oilfield services company would make a good fit with the likes of National Oilwell Varco or Cameron Intl.

Tesco (TESO:nasdaq) would be another juicy target, Chris believes. The stock trades slightly below book value, only 11 times earnings, and also has a clean balance sheet. In today's edition of The Daily Reckoning, Chris provides a few other scintillating details about Tesco.

Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Tesco is a Buy
• Level 3 Assets Growing in All Five U.S. Investment Banks
• Equity Premium Will Be Replaced With a Tangible Asset Premium
• You Can Never Be Sure How Fabricated Income and Earnings Are These Days
• U.S. Markets Could Rally on Oil Price Decline

Something more than meets the eye is going on here. The IMF sale was part of a plan to unload 403.3 tonnes of gold. It's halfway there, and will use the proceeds to fund itself and loans to the developing world (or perhaps Britain and America when they go broke). But what else is going on?

In the past, larges sales of gold - mostly by European central banks - swamped the gold price and kept it in check. The European CBs either felt like they had too much gold doing too little work on the balance sheet. Or, they were manipulating the price of gold down by increasing the supply to the market whenever the gold price began rendering its verdict on global fiscal and monetary policy.

India's central bank is now the proud owner of 557 tonnes of gold. That gives it the tenth largest gold holdings among central banks. But it probably isn't finished. Gold makes up just six percent of India's foreign exchange reserves. There's plenty of room for that to grow.

But don't forget China. China has $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. But 70% of those - or $1.6 trillion - are in U.S. dollars. It owns over just a 1,000 tonnes of gold. That makes up less than 2% of China's reserves and makes China the seventh largest holder of above ground gold. In fact the gold exchange traded fund (NYSE:GLD) owns more gold than China. France, Italy, the IMF, Germany, and the United States round out top five (from fifth to first).

What this tells you is that China could double (and then double again) its gold reserves and gold would still make up less than 10% of its total forex reserves. Compare that to 66% in Italy, 69% in Germany, 70% in France, and 77% in the U.S., according to official numbers. So what's the big deal?

There will always be a threat that European Central Banks release gold supply on to the market. In fact, European central banks just renewed a five-year agreement (including the IMF) to sell down a maximum of 400 tonnes of gold per year from their holdings. They've agreed to this to disgorge their gold in an orderly fashion.

But it would not surprise us to see the Europeans fail to sell the gold they're allowed to sell under the agreement. Our old desk mate in London, Adrian Ash (now with Bullion Vault) is at the London Bullion Market Association's annual meeting in Edinburgh. Word from UBS analyst John Reade, also at the meeting, is that European Central Bank official Paul Mercier reckons that official holders of gold will, "no longer be net sellers of gold."

As we predicted earlier this year, the European central banks would rather hoard their gold than sell it in a rising market. There may be a price at which they do sell it, in order to pay down sovereign debts. But psychologically, the fact that central banks want to own gold and not sell it is pretty important.

Also, it shows you how the balance of economic power in the world has shifted East. True, the European banks can still dump gold on to the market to drown the price. But between the ETFs, central bank buyers in India and China, and the average man on the street in Beijing, Mumbai, and elsewhere, there are more buyers of gold now than sellers.

And if we were right yesterday that the GFC is slowly morphing into a sovereign debt crisis, then the case for gold is that much stronger. This explains why gold futures were up by nearly 3% overnight and old yeller hit a new high at US$1,084.90.

The only worry? So many hedge fund managers and pundits are singing the same tune: long gold and short U.S. Treasuries. As we mentioned yesterday, the bond bubble could go on much longer than anyone expects. And when so many people agree on something, none of them are usually right. As a contrarian, you'd be worried about becoming a victim right about now.

But yes, in the long term, the end of the Super Cycle in fiat money results in the remonetisation of gold. That is what you're seeing now. And it's probably what you'll see for a few more years. It also ought to benefit other precious metals, and of course, precious metals shares.

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• IMF Deems Gold An Idle Asset
• IMF Gold to be Used
• Unlike China, India is Not Willing to Learn from its Mistakes
• Buying Gold, Gossip & Russia’s Tu-160 Bombers
• The Rush to Buy Gold