Can the U.S. Central Bank Really Begin Fighting Inflation in a Serious Way?

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“What’s different?” asked colleague Manraaj Singh at this morning’s conference.

Early every morning, while most Americans are still in their beds, your editor joins a group of analysts and financial journalists to discuss the day’s news.

“What happened to the price of copper? Why are Asian stocks going down? Are they really going to cut rates today?” The answers are not always satisfying, but the questions keep coming.

And the question this morning was: what has really changed?

U.S. stocks held steady yesterday, but they’re down 5% so far this year. The dollar held steady yesterday too, but it is down for the year too – about 6% against the euro and the yen. The Europe- or Japan-based stock market investor has lost more than 10% of his money.

Meanwhile, the fall of the dollar has increased prices for imports. While the United States used to “import deflation” from Asia and elsewhere, now it imports inflation. Prices are rising all over the world.

Yesterday, European producer prices were reported rising at 6.1% per year. High prices have caused the biggest drop in retail sales on record. And yesterday, they had to call out the riot squad in Brussels, to battle fishermen who were kvetching about high fuel costs.

In China, retail prices are rising at an 8.5% rate – the fastest in 12 years.

In Russia, prices are going up at a 14.39% rate.

In Vietnam, the consumer price inflation rate is running at 25%.

In Venezuela, the inflation rate is 29%.

And in Zimbabwe…well, Zimbabwe is another story altogether, with inflation going up so fast they can’t even measure it. Prices are said to be increasing at 160,000% to 200,000% per year. But who can tell? There’s nothing to buy.

Back in Asia…the region’s central banks had hoped that Milton Friedman was wrong. They had hoped that a worldwide economic slowdown would reduce domestic inflation rates. So, they left their lending rates low – considerably lower than the CPI – in order to keep their economies turning over. In Thailand, for example, the central bank lends at 3.25%, while consumer prices rise at more than 6%.

Sound familiar? The United States also keeps its key-lending rate well below the inflation rate – and for the same reason. The Fed lends at 2%. Inflation was last clocked running twice as fast.

We pause here in honest admiration for our fellow investors – the kind of admiration we feel for members of a bomb disposal unit, or a knife-thrower’s assistant. What are we to think? They are lending money to world’s biggest debtor – the U.S. government – for 10 years at 3.94%. That’s yesterday’s yield on the 10-year T-note. If nothing changes, they will get nothing for their trouble. If inflation rates rise (or just happen to be understated), or the dollar falls, the speculation will blow up in their faces.

But along comes Ben Bernanke, with an apparent change of brain. Now, says the captain of the Fed’s rapid response recession-fighting team, further inflation is unwelcome in the United States of America. Supposedly, these words alone took $5 off the global oil price.

But what really has changed? Can the U.S. central bank really begin fighting inflation in a serious way?

The feds have discovered the same two things that their Asian central banker colleagues have found out: that the globalization street goes both ways…and that Milton Friedman was right. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, observed Friedman. When you increase the amount of money in circulation, ceteris paribus, prices are going to go up. That they didn’t go up much in the last 15 years is merely because there were important other trends going on – notably, globalization, which was driving down prices. But now, traffic on the Avenida de Globalization is going in the other direction. And just as it was very difficult to cause inflation while globalized markets were cutting prices, so is it very difficult to stop inflation when globalized markets are increasing them.

*** Can the Fed really begin fighting inflation? Ah, dear reader…do you see the cruel twist to the story?

While the Fed couldn’t seem to create inflation in those wonderful years of the Great Moderation…now, it probably can’t do much to stop it. The U.S. imports an Everest of stuff from overseas. And stuff made overseas is becoming more expensive. The Fed can raise rates to try to cool the U.S. economy and reduce the amount of stuff Americans buy. But those darned Asians and Europeans can still buy more, and prices can still go up.

Besides, any further ‘cooling’ of the U.S. economy is risky. It could freeze up.

The crisis is said to be over on Wall Street. But the Financial Times says new IPOs are being taken off the schedule…short action on Lehman Bros. is at a record level (speculators are betting that the company is going down) and Moody’s says it might downgrade credit ratings for MBIA and Ambac.

The money just isn’t flowing as fluidly in Manhattan as it used to. An AP story tells us that apartment sales were off 21% in the first quarter. And over on Long Island, where the Wall Streeters have their weekend homes, lenders are said to cutting off home equity lines.

In the center of the country, bankruptcy filings are up 27% in Illinois. And out in Las Vegas, the mortgage fraud capital of the world, a $5 billion casino project has just been cancelled.

And this just in – California is officially suffering a drought.

Under these conditions, we’d expect Ben Bernanke to make some gestures toward protecting the dollar and reducing inflation. But we’d also expect that most of the air coming from the Fed will be hot, not cold.

“The Fed seems to be trying to create a situation whereby they are seen to be fighting inflation, simply by not lowering rates any further,” says MoneyMorning. “This is because, while the Fed may have no interest in fighting inflation, they have a big interest in fighting what they call ‘inflationary expectations’. In other words, they are more interested in fighting people’s perception of the problem, rather than the problem itself.

“The problem is that when inflation spread into homes and stocks, everything was just fine – unless you were a saver who rented of course. Now that inflation has moved from asset prices into energy and food, then there is a real problem for those who were unprepared….

“The next wave will be in the form of a derivatives crisis: the oft-mentioned collateral debt obligations and credit default swaps. It is apparent that few people really understand what they are and how deep they go. That is bad news. Because it means when the crisis hits, people are more likely to panic. Panics tend to be disproportionate to the problem, particularly when trust in institutions has disappeared, as is the case with banks today.”

*** To put it another way, the war between inflation and deflation is still going on. Inflation is in the news so much that you might think it has won. Just look in the papers; you can practically see the victory parades and hear the music playing.

But deflation isn’t giving up and isn’t going away. Americans are deep in debt. And debts cause a man to pull back…to retrench…to downsize. We see that in the headlines too. Retail sales are going down. People are driving less. They’re trading in their SUVs for smaller, more economical cars. They’d like to trade in their big houses too – but they can’t find a buyer.

Downsizing means spending less money. And spending less money means fewer sales…and lower incomes…and fewer profits. It means an economic slump – and, typically, falling prices.

In today’s globalized world, that slump would have to reach worldwide proportions in order to have a major effect on key commodity prices, such as oil and grains. But that is probably coming.

The cure for high prices is high prices. You’ve probably heard that before. It describes the way markets work. Prices go up. The higher prices encourage consumers to use less…and encourage producers to produce more. It’s not long before the supply increases…and demand falls. Then, prices adjust downward.

Part of the reason that oil is so expensive is that many places subsidize it. Most governments in Asia and South America have held fuel prices down in order to placate consumers and stimulate growth. They’re now being forced to raise prices. Yesterday, for example, Malaysia announced a 40% increase in fuel prices – sure to dampen demand.

And so the world economy stumbles and lurches forward.

Ben Bernanke may make a feint in the direction of fighting inflation – maybe raising rates slightly. Oil will drop back below $100. Bonds will rise. But consumer price inflation may still not go down; it may actually continue to worsen in the United States, as the economy sinks further into a slump. Then, the next phase of the War Between Inflation and Deflation can begin.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning Australia

Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.
Bill Bonner

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Comments

  1. the best comments never get published

    privateer
    June 6, 2008
    Reply
  2. That’s quite pessimistic, but unfortunately, I’ve to agree that it’s exactly what is happening right now. While the Western states are still gritting tight, the same cannot be said for the Asia counterparts.

    Malaysia’s announcement of the 40% increase in fuel cost and a following 26% increase in electricity price has caused widespread resentment and small pockets of protests throughout the country.

    Japan has fresh calls for increase in food self-sufficiency.

    Other poor, developing nations in South East Asia are finding themselves caught in the midst of the global inflation crisis, with worsening poverty and faltering economic progress.

    I think the worst has yet to come as oil inches towards $200.

    However, while we are busy watching the price meter, let us remind ourselves that the issue of widening income disparity and poverty across the globe is a real cause for concern. They are imminent problems, waiting to explode.

    Reply
  3. I don’t think oil prices will go down and here is why. The US can’t reduce it’s demand by very much because the entire economy is built on consuming the gas that they consume. At most, they will be able to but back about 5%. Mean while, the rest of the world is consuming more and more gas as China and India’s middle class continues to grow. Then their is the supply problems with OPEC and few new oil fields. The fundamentals of supply and demand will continue to support high oil prices. Than, if you throw in the weakening dollar, oil prices will perhaps continue to rise for years.

    I agree with your analysis about the Fed and inflation. The Fed is probably going to do a lot of talking about fighting inflation to manage ‘inflationary expectations’, while in reality doing very little about it. They will probably start raising interest rates by 0.25 at the end of the summer, but it won’t do much to slow inflation unless they raised rates to 8%.

    Reply
  4. The Fed does not “fight inflation”. Inflation is a deliberate process launched by The Fed.

    Whenever The Fed (or any other Central Bank) cheapens the Price of Money, The Fed inflates.

    The goal of inflation is to increase the Efficiency of Money and with that gained, Economic Expansion.

    The Efficiency of Money can happen only when New Credit Growth for Output Swapped rises faster than the amount of Notes and Coins (money in circulation). Output Swapped consists of things of goods wanted (inventory that sells).

    When inflation does not work as intended, new Credit Opportunties do not appear. Folks with piles of Money in Circulation bid up prices on future claims to resources for future manufacturing, future farming.

    On Working Inflation
    ================

    The rate of growth of New Commerical Capital in ratio to the money base (notes and coins) is the True Inflation Rate. Thus, the True Inflation Rate measures the Efficiency of Money.

    Should inflation work, more New Issues of Preferred Stock, Commerical Paper and other investment instruments arise to attract Money.

    Should inflation work, more folks gain goods and jobs as manufacturers, farmers, miners hire workers.

    On Prices
    =======
    All swaps must have one commodity exchanged for another. When one thing gets calculated in terms of another, we call this a ratio. The result of the ratio, we call it a value. When we use money as one of the commodities in the swap, we give another name to the word value — PRICE.

    A rise in price means a change in the ratio has happened calculated at one time from being calculated at another time.

    Only two ways can achieve a price rise:

    [1] money bid and taken (bought) is rising quicker than the thing offered and given (sold)
    [2] the amount of the thing offered and given (sold) is falling quicker than the amount of money bid and taken (bought)

    On Inflation and Prices
    =======================
    Most folks will tell their false beliefs about inflation like this:

    “Inflation is a rise in all prices.”

    or

    “Inflation is a rise in the General Price Level.”

    Since there’s no such thing as a monolithic “one-price” consumer price for all goods, it’s impossible for consumer price inflation to be a true concept, a true belief about existence. In short, believing in a Keynsian Price Level is akin to believing in Tooth Fairies and Hobgobblins.

    On Inflation and Money Supply
    =======================
    Other folks will tell their false beliefs about inflation like this:

    “Inflation is a net increase in money supply”

    or

    “Inflation is a net increase in money supply and credit.”

    Folks never stop and then start to think about the phrase “money supply.”

    Buyers and sellers act and swap Commodities, one for the other.

    Money is a commodity. It’s the thing you trade for another thing, say oil for money and thus money for oil.

    Where you find offers of money (supply), you find calls for money (demand). What gets swapped (sold) is money down now (notes and coins in circulation) for a promise to pay more money through time. We name this future money with any of these — Capital, Credit, Debt.

    On Economic Growth, Credit, Capital and Gambling
    ================================================

    Good Commerical Credit built the world folks. When the focus of credit becomes Consumer Credit or Speculative Credit (margin money), moneyquakes follow.

    The Many confuse gambling (secondary market speculation that hopes for price appreciation, e.g., 401k “buy and holders”) with investment (cash rented for return; aka capital in primary markets).

    Speculating men corrupt capital. Gambling men pervert capital. Only Investors and Shopkeepers grow wealth and prosperity.

    Smack MacDougal
    June 7, 2008
    Reply
  5. Here’s a question for somebody to answer, chiefly relating to the Reserve Bank here in Australia.

    The Reserve Bank has raised its target rate, supposedly to tighten the availability of bank credit and hence bid up interest rates.

    On the other hand, it is ‘lending’ securities to financial institutions in exchange for various ‘AAA’ credit derivatives, so they can ‘balance’ their books. Are these financial institutions not then able to treat these securities as assets and lend against them? If so, how does this tighten bank credit? If not, why the hell are they doing it? As far as I understand it, the business of a bank is to borrow short and lend long. If they can’t then they are out of business.

    Reply
  6. …when “benefits supervisor sleeping” falls of the sofa and then wakes up…she’s gonna be real hungry…she may have been a hot blond bombshell in the ’70’s when volker defended her reputation…but now she’s got his hands tied behind his back…she ain’t so pretty…and she’s one enormous BOND BUBBLE…POW!…actually she’s got a night job too…as a dominatrix “governess”…..THAT’s what’s different this time…call the bomb/bond disposal unit…in the meanwhile, wily investors can tippy toe out of bonds…and into commodity futures…

    Reply
  7. “The Fed seems to be trying to create a situation whereby they are seen to be fighting inflation, simply by not lowering rates any further,” says MoneyMorning.
    It is understandable that US is a consumer driven economy. As long as, they can trick the consumer to believe this is the case, they continue to spend. US economy will recover. It also cost the least. Just advertising the message they want [feel like Communist China].

    Reply
  8. No central banks in this world have any real interest in fighting off inflation. They help create inflation, but with a softly , softly approach so as to be accepted by consumers. We consumers create inflation ourselves.

    Let’s make it criminal to increse the supply of money more than the supply of goods and services. Let’s make the supply of money in circulation of nation be based on the net asset backing of that nation at all times.

    Don’t forget this world is made up of energy. It’s only we do not want to fully use other forms of energy to replace oil or coal yet.

    So the stupid man save his money, the smart man spends all his money, the even smarter man spends his future money at present, the oversmart man gamble his money for a bigger share of future wealth. The result inflation, then bubble, then stagnation, deflation, recession, and then inflation again, and so the cycle goes on…

    Conclusion:
    Inflation is forever, indefinite, absolute, while deflation, stagnation, recession are only temporary in time.

    Reply

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