Gas is the New Oil

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–Yesterday’s Daily Reckoning left off with a tantalising question. Will the regime-toppling global inflation wave hit Australia’s shores? And if it does, what will it mean to your investments? For every variable rate mortgage holder in Australia (and that’s most of them) this is probably the most important question of 2011.

–But you’ll have to wait one more day to get our considered answer to that question. We’re a day behind on the weekly update for Australian Wealth Gameplan and there’s news afoot that needs reporting. Most of that news is influenced by what’s going on in the Middle East. How?

–Well, no one knows, politically, what shape things will take in Libya (or Iran). But we do know generally that when there’s approaching civil war in a major global oil exporter, it’s going to put the spotlight on energy. On cue, Brent crude prices spiked to $108 a barrel for the first time since 2008. Nerves.

–The last time oil prices hung around the $100/barrel zip code, natural gas and other conventional energy substitutes got a lot of attention from investors. Yesterday’s biggest conventional energy investor was BHP Billiton. It announced a $4.7 billion punt on the Fayetteville shale assets of U.S. based Chesapeake Energy.

–Now is that the best use of BHP’s cash war chest? We’ll ask our resource guru (Dr. Alex Cowie) and our value guru (Greg Canavan). But as a self-styled big-picture guru, your editor likes the story because it confirms the investment idea in our most recent issue of Australian Wealth Gameplan: shale gas assets.

–That’s as much as we can say about it without giving away the store. But if you’re looking for one strategic investing take-away from the rising oil price it’s this: large, untapped energy reserves and the companies that own them are going to command a premium in the coming years. Invest accordingly.

–Let’s hit the mail box now. It’s been awhile since we’ve done so. With over 60,000 readers, we don’t have time to respond to every letter you send. But we read as many as we can. In today’s mailbag a claim that we’ve accused Australians of being lazy and that our advertising is appalling. Read  on…

In today’s DR ((Monday, 21 February 2011) Dan makes a pretty good argument against royalties.

No royalties, no money for dictators to buy weapons to enslave their people. No royalties, no money for governments to create the welfare state and make the populations lazy (and useless).

And maybe the recognition that the value of resources is acquired by the effort to get it out of the ground and make it useful. Well done. Keep it up.

Cheers

Nick B.

Dan

Really somehow we are now lazy. I work in the mining industry and I work hard. We work a 12 hour nightshift for 7 days straight and then another 7 by 12 hour day shifts and when the average temperature hits 45 degrees plus outside (and it does regularly) not to mention how hot it gets in mills and furnaces I believe I can appreciate the notion of a hard day’s work for a hard day’s pay.

I normally like your stuff but I believe even as well intended as you’re comments were they were written poorly. Further I would suggest to you that these comments are in fact ill informed. For example you know as well as I that Australia has had natural resources for a very, very long time and it has only been in very recent times that the mining industry has even looked like returning a positive return on their investments. The mining industry has historically returned a negative return on capital investment. BHP were lucky to achieve a 7% rate of return on their iron ore investments and were thinking of selling the business off. Please look up these statistics because they are very interesting especially given your thoughts on the Dutch disease.

I do however agree with you insofar as pointing out that YES my parent’s generation had it tough no doubt and their parent’s generation had it tougher and that at the end of the day it is because of the hard work of previous generations that has allowed us to live a much better life. I certainly agree with that sentiment. And yes I believe we need to invest our time and effort educating our children that life is tough and teach them the value of hard work and especially the value of money.

But Dan the importance of free market economics is to allow people, companies to take risks and invest capital in industries like the mining industry to try and make a buck. Should we fight the Dutch disease by lobbying government to incentivize the manufacturing sector? Free market encourages people to take risks, invest capital and they should expect a return on their investment.

How can doing this very well somehow create a “lazy” populace? Go figure!

Regards
Michael

–Michael, we’re making the same point. For-profit enterprises can’t afford to be lazy if they want to survive. They have to create value for customers. That takes industry, skill, and intelligence. There’s no doubt about that.

Our point was that in resource-rich countries, it’s everyone outside the industry (and especially those in government) who take wealth creation from extractive industries for advantage. They forget about the down years in the commodity cycle when there are no profits.

They only see the bumper years and that’s when they become acquisitive and grasping.

In Libya, the Gaddafi regime got “lazy” because it relied on one source of export income to fund all the promises of the State (and the graft and theft of the establishment). The same is happening in Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez is methodically wrecking the economy and squandering his country’s energy wealth.

The bigger point is that making a profit in the free market is difficult to do. The “resource curse” is that it gives some people the impression that resource profits are effortless and don’t require any long-term planning, delayed gratification, and prudent investing.

Of course you wouldn’t expect the government to understand how to create wealth. It doesn’t create a single penny of wealth, ever. It can only redistribute money it’s taken from someone in the private sector. When you have that coercive power, making money is as easy as taking money. And that’s lazy, in addition to being theft.

–Finally, here’s the kind of note we get periodically questioning our integrity, credibility, marketing sense, and a whole lot of other things. Our response follows.

Hi,

Just wondering if you will be ceasing publication if the housing market doesn’t crash in 2011 like your add states? It would seem to me that would be the honourable thing to do. But then again, you’ve been calling for a crash for years, and no doubt IF it happens you will claim you were calling for it to happen, even if it doesn’t happen for another 5, 10 or 20 years! LOL

What you should really be advertising, is that you’re a person without any credibility or integrity. That you only show information which you deem to be bearish to justify your cause, and that even the information you present as bearish isn’t in fact bearish at all.  It is in fact the lowest common denominator scaremongering, directed towards those who are also bearish or to those who are so easily led by your lies.

You must be one seriously unhappy and frustrated person, as clearly you would have sold all your property holdings many years ago, only to see them continue to rise. Failing to sell all your holdings would make your integrity even lower than it already is, if that were possible.

Anyway, just thought I would drop you a line to find out when you plan on ceasing publication, and doing all Australians a favour by ceasing to place such misleading adverts as you do.  Even if we assume the worst outcome coming true, it would merely bring house prices back to where you would have sold, or maybe even higher, as no doubt you’ve been bearish property most of your life. LOL

You must be so embarrassed at how useless your publication is, and how it has only hurt people who have acted on your advice.  Have you refunded all their subscriptions to show you’re an honourable person? Have you apologised to them? The one upside of your scaremongering marketing is that it keeps many others bearish on property, which is in fact the best recipe for continued rising prices  LOL

Will property crash one day? Who knows. Maybe. That isn’t the issue, it is when.  Timing is everything, but you wouldn’t have a clue about that.  That’s probably why you publish a newsletter, because you can’t make a dime yourself, and have lost so much by not being in property.  I’m actually shocked you hold an AFS license, but that probably goes more to showing how poor our licensing requirements are.

The fact that such atrocious advice can be dished out every year, and be allowed to continue.  I am just reading your webpage, where you ask for people to sign up, so you can provide contrarian investment advice.  LOL

That is so funny, because it’s actually true.  You give advice opposite to what is reality in the market, so definitely contrarian.  Certainly not contrarian to the public views though where a significance % also agree house prices must come down. But we all know those people are the ones who do not own property.

Regards,
Adrian Pitt

–Yeah we were overdue for this kind of broadside. It contains a number of recurrent criticisms against our editorial message, our business model, and our general moral fibre. So from time to time, we try to address these issues.

–Our prediction that Australian house prices are going to crash isn’t based on envy. We don’t own a home in Australia. Never have and never will. So we have no personal wish to see housing fall to a price where we sold, or where we could buy. You’re completely deluded about the motivation of our analysis.

–The motivation is to warn people about making what could be the single biggest financial mistake they’ll ever make: taking on massive debt to buy a home at the top of the price cycle and the bottom of the interest rate cycle. We could be wrong, of course. But since we’ve seen it happen before in the UK and the US, we doubt it.

–The prediction is based on the extraordinary growth in household debt levels over the last 30 years. Nearly all of that is mortgage debt. Australians carry a heavy, interest-rate sensitive debt burden. And right now you have historically low interest rates, historically high house prices, and full employment. This is as good as it gets. And when it can’t get better, it usually doesn’t.

–Are we early? Maybe. But so what? That doesn’t make us wrong. And frankly you’re an idiot for saying so. If house prices are seriously unaffordable and overvalued in Australia, then not alerting our readers to that would be dishonourable. We’re happy to be early. It will give people time to avoid the big loss when the crash happens.

–And it will happen. Sooner or later, in response to an external credit crunch, the house price correction is going to come. If we’re wrong in our precise timing it does not make us wrong in our underlying observation. And getting the big trend right in asset prices is just as important as timing.

–There must be some underlying resentment or grudge you have for thinking our publications are useless and require apologising for. What is it? Maybe you misunderstand what we’re trying to do. So we’ll clarify: our aim is to tell you investment stories that you’re not going to find elsewhere, or until much later (like LNG and rare earths, to name two examples on which our subscribers were many months ahead of the popular curve).

–Nobody needs to be told to buy the big banks or miners. You get told that every day. Nobody needs  to be warned about the threats they already know about. Our business is to explore the opportunities and threats that are outside the mainstream press and investment establishment.

–That’s the only real way you can have an advantage as an investor, by knowing something somebody else doesn’t. In order to do that, you have to be willing to think about the world differently, imagine what might happen, and then investigate it more thoroughly to see who the winners and losers are, and then take a punt.

–Of course we won’t always get it right. But we have a team of people now dedicated to doing that work in their respective sectors. And we have tens of thousands of happy subscribers, many of whom have made a profit from this kind of thinking. Why would we apologise for that?

–If it were possible to refund your free subscription to the DR, we would. But here’s an alternative: if you don’t like it and don’t find it valuable or thought provoking, unsubscribe! It won’t cost you a thing. And there’s a good chance it will make you a lot happier. LOL

Dan Denning
Dan Denning examines the geopolitical and economic events that can affect your investments domestically. He raises the questions you need to answer, in order to survive financially in these turbulent times.
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Comments

  1. Dan,you are an excellent analyst!

  2. Dan, you are an excellent EDITor!
    (Or was that the elves last night?!~ ;)

  3. In essence the rant from Adrian is correct in saying that AWG wont make us rich. And YES the advise for Dan is truly bearish. However, i personally didn’t sign up to the newsletter to make easy money, i signed up for a good economic review and honest updates on what is happening around the world economy. The advise is bearish for a reason, if you have never done your own research then you will never believe it, but the system is broken, and if all logic holds true and correct, then some time in the near future we will see a once in a life time global economic change. The world wont stop turning; but it will change enough for the average person to be caught with the pants and mouth down.

    I am 24 and personally, I cant wait to be around to be a part of it.

  4. You can’t wait to be caught with your pants down, blame-game?!

    It must be a dismal life being among the disenfranchised, waiting for an economic catastrophe to even the score. How do you face each day, week, month, year… knowing that Armageddon may be many more years/decades off?

    It seems likely that the true survivors of any such event may be the most insulated. America’s current illnesses have affected its disenfranchised more than its middle class. Only the poor really seem poorer.

    Yes, there are a few nice yachts going cheap in some US harbours, but, by-and-large, the homeless unemployed are the least able and least-prepared for economic trauma. No cash reserves, no buffer, no insurance, no long-term plan of consequence… and least able to flexibly change with the circumstances, because they have fewer options.

    And, by-and-large, we control our own destinies. Expecting a Black Swan event to cut down the tall poppies so we can finally stand on our own two feet is a very poor substitute for a good plan and hard work… .

  5. Now you are TRAVS again Coward Pete?

    But the Grub behavior is constant I see!

    You think you control your destiny? … No you dont … If Rudd did not throw money at the housing sector via FHOG, housing today would be there with the Irish & US … You dont control your destiny you just think you do.

    After all is said & done Blame – Game is right

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 23, 2011
  6. “If Rudd did not throw money at the housing sector via FHOG, housing today would be there with the Irish & US … ”

    This fella boasts he owns SIX investment properties: Woodvale, four Karratha apartments and a DHA house ‘south of Perth’… .
    Rings true, doesn’t it?!~ :D

  7. This fella boasts he owns SIX investment properties: Woodvale, four Karratha apartments and a DHA house ‘south of Perth’… .

    But he still has enough common sense & is prudent enough to know that this statement is at best inaccurate & foolish….

    “we control our own destinies.”

    You only think you do ….. Now go back to Biting your Own neck

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 23, 2011
  8. This fella boasts he owns SIX investment properties: Woodvale, four Karratha apartments and a DHA house ‘south of Perth’… .

    But he lacks sufficient common sense to know that (t)his statement conflicts
    with his own actions and stated goal, to P*O*P the Perth property market!:

    “If Rudd did not throw money at the housing sector via FHOG, housing today would be there with the Irish & US …”

    Rings true, doesn’t it?!~ :D

  9. Please, Biker – just leave it alone. It proves nothing except that you are easily provoked and just encourages endless and pointless rubbish posts.

  10. Don, a site whose banner has proclaimed “Australian House Prices Are Severely and Seriously Unaffordable” since inception is bound to attract exponents of this belief… and also those who disagree.

    I consider DRA’s stance in this regard to be a serious marketing error.
    Had they not played this card so long and hard, there would be:

    a. less egg-on-face;

    b. fewer property-related posts.

    Property dominates a site committed to gold and shares. Why is it so?
    PerthNow property sites are also their most popular. Perhaps it’s because 70% of Aussies own their own homes… and the other 30% want to… .
    It’s most Australians’ largest investment.

    Most of the ‘poo-flinging’, as you or Davo call it, happens in WA forums.
    Dan has no hesitation in totally removing anything he objects to, here.
    Large rafts of material have disappeared.

    Perhaps that tired old header “Australian House Prices Are Severely and Seriously Unaffordable’ needs to disappear overnight, too. While it’s there… and this devious troll persists, I’m likely to respond… and in a more mature and responsible manner than his usual bitter rants… . :D

  11. Biker Pete ….. I think if Dan wants to know your thoughts on any topic all he need do is Flush a toilet!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 23, 2011
  12. Biker Pete (AKA Coward Pete)

    I consider DRA’s stance in this regard to be a serious marketing error.
    Had they not played this card so long and hard, there would be:

    Don is correct I command you my Little Puppet to stop talking about me !!
    You are my Puppet & when I pull the strings you dance so STOP IT!!

    Sorry Don you cant say I did not try?
    (He wont be able to help himself just watch, wind him up like a top & off he goes amuses me for hours… Tee Hee Hee)

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 23, 2011
  13. Happy, Don? :D

  14. Biker – I thought it was so obvious who was the poo flinger in the exhanges that I didn’t have to mention that it was not you. As for the idiot troll – so what? Seriously, what are you going to get with arguing with it? Are you winning? Do you think you will ever prove anything at all with these exchanges?

    It is completely delusional and I suspect needs some kind of help which this forum cannot provide but encouraging it is completely pointless and just stinks the place up.

    Seriously, the more you engage with this thing and go round and round in pointless circles, the dirtier this place gets.

  15. Not Fooled – this is the only time I will respond to you directly – get some help or something. Your posts make for some seriously sad reading and I kind of hope you are actually a teenager (or younger) mucking around on the internet and not an adult.

  16. Comment by Biker on 23 February 2011:

    “Perhaps it’s because 70% of Aussies own their own homes… and the other 30% want to…”

    70% huh?

    70% of 22.5million is what? 15.5million? Ok?

    We have here in oz 20% of the population is under the age of fifteen (15)
    We have here in oz 5% of the population is steady_as_she_goes unemployed.

    70% is a packed house to me. You know? Full deck and all that jazz.

    Quite Simply, everyone over the age of fifteen owns a house less the unemployed. Lolololo! Hellooooo, anybody home?

    Where_are_the_renters?

    Where_on_earth do you get those numbers from bi_ker peat? Did you pluck them whilst fisting Ned S? or whilst fisting capt. anna bligh? who just happened to make the same comment that 70% of queenslanders own their own home.

  17. Oh dear, Prozak is back. Hardly worth bothering to respond, but:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_ownership_in_Australia

    “70% of households own their own homes — one of the largest proportions of any nation. The prevalence of home-ownership has meant that renters and owners are not divided as sharply along income lines as they are elsewhere: 55% of low-income households and 80% of high-income households are home-owners.”

    Now, grab a handful of fluoxetine and chill, Pill Boy…!~

  18. Oh cool, wikipedia. Hmmm.

    Well I’m sure the oz government heavily relies on wikipedia for its stats. What they state is jibberish at best, bit like you.

    Question to you (oh great one) is if 20% of the population is under the age of fifteen (15) and the rest are unemployed or unaccounted for, the remaining 70% own their own homes. No?

    Then, Everybody won a prize!

    But where do the renters fit in? There’s no room left.

    Talk about a baubble in a bubble.

  19. More gibberish. (Ignored.)

  20. Travs (sorry for the late reply i had work and i went for a run beofre),

    Since you asked:

    I wake up every day at 5:30a.m dribbling on myself because I hate mornings; sometimes i stub my toe on the door on the way to the kitchen because im not quiet awake; its not too bad since i never draw blood, I just cant stand those 7am starts.

    I get through every week/month by checking my shares which are performing very well, especially my precious metal miners, one particularly has seen gains of more then 200%. I do a fist pump every time this happens. I also look forward to my AWG newsletter for abit of an update and ideas.

    I get through every year with the pay rises and bonuses I get from work; I don’t own a house and I rent cheap with a mate so i can invest a lot of the extra cash. My house mate is single and is trying out internet dating, so far he has scored 2 hotties and about 4 heffas. I keep telling him he will never find ‘the one’ on the internet but he does gas drilling on a fly in fly out basis so he cant be bothered with anything serious. Each to their own i guess.

    I often have laughs with my colleges about my cynical views about the economy and other things like minimum wages. There is a quote board at work and my quote is ‘when i become prime-minister of this country….’. I tell them i cant wait until ‘Armageddon’ just so I can say I told you so. I love being right!

    I also get through my days a little easier by avoiding newspaper articles and internet blogs written by property spruikers. I don’t have the time for it. I don’t know where some people (looking at you right now Travs) find the energy to read article about things that enrage them.

    How do you get through each day/week/year?

  21. Blame: “How do you get through each day/week/year?”

    Certainly not waiting for the sky to fall, Blame. ;)
    Something goes wrong in my life, I take it on the chin…
    I don’t blame others for my own failures (or successes… !)

    Travel continually. Not waiting for anything, except my big Super payout, clearing all debt. No complaints at all.

    Looking forward to seeing how you cope being PM, though!~
    Good luck with that… . :D

    Travs (Biker)
    February 24, 2011
  22. “Travs (sorry for the late reply i had work and i went for a run…)”

    No drama. I’ve responded and my reply has gone into the ether.
    My fault this time… ;)

    OK, you’re our kids age. They’d agree with much of what you’ve said.
    Not sure they’d want to run the country, though… .

    Rarely enraged. I enjoy the forum.

    Travelling continually, I think we’re pretty lucky to live in Australia.
    Can’t see that changing. Raised in a family which forecast Armageddon
    and prepared for it(!) for the last 63 years, I’m starting to doubt I’ll see it any time soon.

    Watch your knees if you’re still running in your sixties…

  23. …great bear picture…that ba-bear looks russian…and she can taste the gas in the air with her nose…

  24. Dumb Kluck … just when do you get out in the fields & look after this fantasy hobby farm of yours? … spend day & night on here & Perth Now?

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 25, 2011
  25. Mortgage Choice Survey of FIRST HOME OWNERS who bought housing in the last 2 years with the assistance of a Govt First Home Owner Grant of either $14K or $21K… 8% said they are selling because they cant afford the repayments, B*U*T on top of this 10% of FHB in the past 2 years have already sold .. {funny the survey left this bit out} … so shortly almost 20% of FHB in the past 2 years will have sold out because they cant afford OWNERSHIP? … Half of these home buyers have chalked additional DEBTS of $20K PLUS!!! (Using equity in the house courtesy of the FHOG) .. BUT the SCARY Bit is 5% have increased debts by $100K . (CARS /CREDIT CARDS/ ….WHAT THE!!) … 2% are only managing to make mortgage payments using THEIR CREDIT CARDS!! ….Just imagine how safe the price of your property is with people like this propping up the market? …. Now remember interest rates at 7- 7.8% are considered L*O*W … Just imaging what will happen when interest rates rise back to normal levels around 9-9.5% ….. THIS IS AUSTRALIAS SUB-PRIME!! http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/happy-you-must-be-a-homeowner/story-e6frg2ru-1226012126733

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 25, 2011
  26. REIWA listings for sale are currently @ 16,959 … (25/02/2011) Now based on current sales of around 1,480* per month Perth has over 11.5 months stock on hand for sale … (3-4 months stock is considered healthy) So is this good or bad? Lets see how this compares to Jan last year?…Jan 2010 10,300 listings, with sales of 1713 = 6 months inventory for sale … Interesting in 12 months housing inventory for sale has jumped 65% !!! to 16,959 … yet the actual months of inventory actually jumped close to 100% due to sales declining while stocks were actually rising, the result is that inventory for sale has jumped from 6 months inventory to 11.5 months of inventory. The 1480 sales number is based on average sales reported by Landgate over the past 6 months … This is based on Land Transfer data from the titles office so these are accurate & cant be fudged !! * Landgate data link as usual to support what I say … http://www.landgate.wa.gov.au/corporate.nsf/chartfiles/$file/mehpm.pdf) … This might explain why REIWA is reluctant to let the market know Days on Market sales numbers that they use to publish but now keep the market in the dark about?

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 26, 2011
  27. Let’s see… What do we have here? Investor N Fool Punter of ‘Mindarie’, with six properties (Woodvale, Karratha (4), DHA south of Perth) talking the property market down. Why?

    And I quote: “Greed, greed and more f…..g greed”

  28. You can never go wrong buying property in Perth? … or can you? …. Take #9 Donabate Rd Ridgewood….. Bought by a Fool in March 2007 for $510,000 + Stamp Duty & selling costs it would owe them about $550,000 to break even??? …. well this house sold 21 / 01 /2011 for just $420,000 ….. 4 years paying twice as much as what it would cost to rent & the purchaser of this property sells it for $130,000 less than what it owed him!!! ….. MIND BLOWING? …. 2007 was a peak in the market & we are back at that Peak again today …. But property spruikers will tell you this is just a one off? … WRONG There are hundreds of houses just like this in RIDGEWOOD (& ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT PERTH)today …. If their owners tried to or need to sell tomorrow they are in for a big shock!!! …. I would not be in too big a rush to buy in todays inflated BUBBLE MARKET!!

    {Keep talking about me & I will focus on the real issues, one of us will win the debate ?…. Time will tell?}

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 26, 2011
  29. I prefer your own example, N Fool Punter of ‘Mindarie’. We recall you boasting that the property you ‘live in’ trebled in value between 2002 – 2010… from $250K – $750K, ‘unimproved’. $500K gain in eight years. Also recall you stating that you kind of ‘own’ it, an arrangement you describe as ‘far tooooo complex’ for those rolling about on the floor laughing, to understand. Happy to post the links for the amusement of others. If you really do ‘own’ it, you’ve scored a major capital-gains-free (and rent-free) win. Others doubt that _any_ of your claims are true.
    It’s possible too, that Don’s theory is, in fact, correct… .

    Your comment: “Keep talking about me & I will focus on the real issues…” is also amusing, considering your jibe about my ‘fantasy hobby farm’, a few posts back. Rest assured that it’s fun using your own countless boasts to highlight your lack of logic and flawed rationale. ;)

  30. Lets use my example in Woodvale …..

    (promise not to roll around laughing on the floor too much I dont want you to break bones at your age)

    I bought in 2002 & the price was fair value @ $250 K now wages went up 30% roughly in these 8 years so my property should have only gone up 30% to about $350K … however it is $750K & there you have the bubble …I dont deny gaining the benefit of sensational one off windfall however I am not that naive to think that it will keep happening … nor do I rely or need prices to stay at a $750K level…..

    However investors like you who draw on equity as it builds up to buy more & more do need the prices to stay up…. Good luck with that!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 26, 2011
  31. There, that didn’t hurt at all, did it? After 31 queries about whether you OWN or RENT it, we learn that you bought it! Why the repeated attempts to dodge this simple question? What’s _that_ all about? And why was it ‘…far toooo complex…’ for us to understand?

    Pretty simple:

    1.) It was for sale;

    2.) You bought it.

    Investors like me? A fortnight ago you claimed I’m a speculator. Fact is, you know very, very little about me. To you, I’m a Yank when I’m not Canadian; I’m a bank johnnie, mate of Dogmans; apparently we’re golf buddies; I own nothing, including a fantasy farm; I live in ‘WannerRoo’; I’ve had a house repossessed; and I’ve travelled only as far as Bali.
    That’s ten for a start. ALL WRONG: 0%. ZERO.

    Should this surprise us? Your property predictions?

    2009: -40%

    2010: -20%*

    2011: +CPI

    Your interest rate prediction? 9.5% by mid-2011.

    I’m surprised you have the gall to post each day.
    Do you ever get _anything_ right, EVER? :D

    * Keen says +20%… and you foolishly gave us the link… . ;)

  32. You have me confused with Punter but wont accept a bet to settle the issue? Never called you a Yank or anything else … Know your enemy is a good rule … whilst you have Dullsville / Punter / Aaron / Joel confused as me I sit here smug in the knowledge you clutch at straws still with doubt in your convictions because you dont accept the bet

    I made no prediction on property in 2009 I challenge you to find a single post prior to Oct 2009 by then it would have been too late to put in a 2009 forecast.

    I accept I forecast a fall of 20% in 2010 & got it wrong but the forecast was sound on the data at hand.

    I have made no forecast for 2011 but I am more than happy to once You / Dogman / Bill put up a forecast first … Last year you were unaccountable because you said nothing.So Ladies first

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    February 27, 2011
  33. jarbage.

  34. I agree. Gargage. ‘Jibberish’.

    Typically:

    * No explanation of the 31 attempts to elicit a OWN or RENT response
    (Why obfuscate so long? Ducking and weaving 31 times?! Silly… .)

    * No explanation in regard to your (‘far toooo) COMPLEX’ity comment

    * No explanation of the ill logic of attempting to crash a market in
    which one ‘owns’ six properties

    * No explanation of the ‘keep talking about me’ irony

    * No response to the mid-2011 9.5% interest rate prediction

    * No explanation as to why identical posts have emanated from
    N Fool and Punter; or why WannerRoo is continually misspelt
    identically by both

    * The bet? You supplied the phone number of your urologist.
    As you know, I never rang it. I googled it. Sounds like
    Shoe’s curse wasn’t all that accurate…

    * Had to laugh at your ‘at your age’ comment. I figure I’m
    quite a few years younger than you, granddad… !

    Happy to supply the links on return home. :D

  35. http://www.theage.com.au/business/house-prices-sag-as-demand-sapped-by-floods-20110228-1ban2.html?comments=21#comments

    Clutching at straws… blaming the floods, market was turning before the floodes…

    Stillgotshoeson
    February 28, 2011
  36. A warm hello to all our PerthNow visitors.
    Great to see DRA getting a lot more hits!~

    Nice to see you using the links… .

  37. It’s ‘diffrent ear’ shoes!

    ‘Worst ever’ property dive after disasters

    http://www.news.com.au/money/property/disasters-knock-property-market/story-e6frfmd0-1226013426709

  38. @Comment by nv on 1 March 2011:

    It’s ‘diffrent ear’ shoes!

    ‘Worst ever’ property dive after disasters

    http://www.news.com.au/money/property/disasters-knock-property-market/story-e6frfmd0-1226013426709
    VA:F [1.9.5_1105]

    From link above….

    Economists are unanimous in excepting no change in rates tomorrow but Dr Dale said governments needed to “up the ante” on delivering policy reform to tackle a range of supply-side constraints, including the lack of affordable land and the dire shortage of available credit for commercially viable residential projects.

    Banks have heaps of funds, they are not lending to commercial residential projects because they fear a collapse… period..

    Floods in Queensland and Victoria are the cause of Perths drop in prices. HAHAHA

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 1, 2011
  39. Tomorrow, Shoes? Never mind, consider _this_ Fool’s guesses:

    Almost exactly a year ago, 4th March 2010, our mate N Fool Punter of ‘Mindarie’ stated: “If you cant afford 8% plus rates SELL NOW…”

    By 13th December 2010, he was predicting “…they can ALL look forward to extra payments around $9000 PA…”

    Still certain that rates would return to their ‘traditional 10.11%’
    The N Fool stated, 18th February 2011: “Melbourne Cup Rate Rises are starting to kick in…”

    A little early to consider equally ludicrous guesses by others here… . ;)

  40. Well Biker its good to see that you do agree with me that the biggest mistake people will make in this market is to think they are getting a bargain when prices are down 5% or 10% … When this happened in the USA in 2006 American Realtors were warning people to buy in now before it was too late & prices went back up again.. (Yeah Right!!!) … people jumped in thinking they were getting bargains only to see prices fall a further 30% – 60% …. a house is worth 3-4 times incomes or 11 times rental return … this has been applicable for hundreds of years & we will go back to this pricing shortly (Ireland & USA are classic examples) ….. I would not be buying for at least 18 months … after all what is the rush? … it cost a First Home Buyer half the cost of ownership to rent & after all said & done property prices are not going up in a hurry so sit back & save save save .. get ready to buy with bigger deposits on lower priced houses (Double saving)

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 2, 2011
  41. N Fool Punter, you’ve been consistently wrong since you first posted:

    * Interest rate predictions? Wrong.

    * Crash predictions? Wrong.

    * Investors’ panic? Wrong.

    * FHBs mass exodus? Wrong.

    * My situation? Wrong.

    What has become increasingly clear to all who digest your posts is that:

    * You’re an investor: six homes.

    * Your goals are highly speculative: Crash the market, buy more.

    Pretense that you have any other purpose is laughable: “…my kids will be able to buy a house 3 – 4 times their incomes and not be slaves to the Banks? … Your kids too!!!” Yet you boast you’ve trebled your Woodvale value ($250K – $750K in eight years) and you’re out to make a ‘M*O*T*Z*A’ on the other five.

    You’re transparent in your utter lack of logic.
    What part of the word ‘conman’ do you not understand?

  42. Hello all.

    Didn’t think it possible that this site could go further downhill.

    I see biker is still accusing people of being me even when its pretty obvious they don’t share the same opinions.

    Cheerio.

  43. HaHa… You just accelerated the decline, Pill Boy!~

  44. Hey Prozak,

    Long time since I last posted too. I’m probably you too though eh…? I just sit back and let Stillgotshoes do the fighting now. I think this question of how many percent property will fall over what period of time will probably evolve into an argument of whose inflation figure is right or wrong. Most of us know that reported property decline figures are probably understated and government CPI figures are undoubtetbly understated. Don’t even discuss wage increases or housing affordability data either. What would we know anyway? Most of us are just retarded renters with vested interests in a property collapse right?

    Cheerio

    Claytonator
    March 2, 2011
  45. Claytonator: “Most of us are just retarded renters with vested interests in a property collapse right?”

    No idea if you’re a tenant or not, Claytonator. While some of your past posts suggest you’re not the sharpest tool in the shed, ‘retarded’ is probably a little extreme.

    A site which posts as its banner:”Australian House Prices Are Severely and Seriously Unaffordable” is going to draw opinions from all stakeholders: tenants, investors, FHBs, speculators, the homeless, conmen, landlords, financial advisors… the whole gamut. It’s extremely rare to find a bloke with six houses calling for:

    * Property crash 40%+

    * Higher interest rates

    Three things for sure, though:
    Misery loves company.
    Misery wants a crash.
    Misery wants it NOW.

  46. Where were we?

    A site which posts as its banner:”Australian House Prices Are Severely and Seriously Unaffordable” is going to draw opinions from all stakeholders: tenants, investors, FHBs, _SPECULATORS,_ the homeless, conmen, landlords, financial advisors…

    You’re better off looking at what N Fool _does,_ rather than what he says.

    He’s a speculator with six rentals: “I also stated that I own 1 x DHA House South of Perth Lease expires 2011 July I think but dont hold me to that … Made a MOTZA … But fear I may be too late to put it on the market to get max Capital gain ….. Hindsight being 20 / 20 if only I bought it 2 years earlier I could have dumped it in 2009.” DRA, 15th Feb., 2011.

    http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/how-to-profit-from-the-path-of-progress/2011/02/09/

    This is your standard ‘bump and dump’ speculator, posing as the hero of Aussie mums and dads: “”…my kids will be able to buy a house 3 – 4 times their incomes and not be slaves to the Banks? … Your kids too!!!”

    HaHa… . Conman at work… . ;)

    Biker Pete
    March 2, 2011
  47. You are so good for my EGO … talking about me all the time as if I really matter that much?

    Meanwhile I get on talking about the issues that will affect property…..

    Colin Barnett said on ABC Talkback Radio this morning (2-03-2011) that he is against any STATE GOVT boost to the Federal Govt First Home Buyer Grant … He confirmed that his Govt has been lobbied by both the HIA & REIWA … But he said he was not convinced that a State Govt Boost would do anything to help the housing market … in fact he confirmed his view was that any boost to the grant would only inflate prices & reduce housing affordability…. So there goes that Pipe Dream of a Boost to the FHOG …. Tee Hee Hee

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 2, 2011
  48. Old Timer….

    * Interest rate predictions? Wrong.???
    I said 8% …Comm Bank 7.81% … Still 2 rises to come this year … Global Markets also rising

    * Crash predictions? Wrong??
    Sales Down 30% … Home Loans Down 30% …. Listings up 70% … Days on Market up to over 80 Days …. Land Discounts of $30-$60K by developers … New Home Const down 40% … Fool!!!

    * Investors’ panic? Wrong. ??? …. REIWA & REIA say jump in listings is Investors … Investor activity down 50%

    * FHBs mass exodus? Wrong.???? ….. Really??? … The market is down 40-50% …. That is why HIA & REIWA are BEGGING for a state Boost!!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 2, 2011
  49. “New Home Const down 40%” Forty percent less houses being built, N Fool.
    Rents rise.

    Investor activity down 50%? 50% less houses being built, N Fool.
    Rents rise.

    FHBs market? : “The market is down 40-50%” Since the existing grant is construction only, 40 – 50% less houses being built, N Fool.
    Rents rise.

    Interest rate predictions? You continually bleat 10.11%… and as DM has reminded you, very few pay 7.81%. I pay 7.1% to 7.25%. ComBank? BwaHaHa!
    You remain wrong.

    Logic is not your strong point, is it, Punter Fool?!- :D

    Biker Pete
    March 2, 2011
  50. BTW a friend got offered 6.91% by the CBA yesterday….

    Rents rise????… Clown interest rates went up + other holding costs = $180-$200 pw … yet landlords only managed to recover about $30 pw in rent rises … FOOL!!

    I have never predicted 10.11% just pointed out that this has been the average rate for a home loan in the past …

    Still think you are earning interest in a offset account? …. well I guess you would be wishing interest rates got back to 1990 17% levels … Please explain why you are not in favour of returning to these high rates again … after all you think you would earn these rates TAX FREE in your offset account???? … What a AMATEUR Property investor you turned out to be … TEE HEE HEE or as you would say … BwaHaHa!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 2, 2011
  51. HaHa…!~ Good try, N Fool Punter of ‘Mindarie’. Bank manager and I had a good laugh when I related your dismay that we use offsets to attract 7.1 – 7.25% tax free. The more you reject this great strategy, the more we wonder about these ‘six investment properties’ you own.

    Credibility? You’re an investor, but call for a crash. You’re a landlord, but you call for reduced rents. Best of all, in both your capacity as investor and landlord, you’re calling for higher interest rates!

    Dogman is right, N Fool. You couldn’t lie straight in bed.

    Biker Pete
    March 2, 2011
  52. Biker

    we use offsets to attract 7.1 – 7.25% tax free.

    Income or Savings ??? why do you dodge this simple clarification?

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 2, 2011
  53. Comment by Claytonator on 2 March 2011:

    Hey Prozak,

    Long time since I last posted too. I’m probably you too though eh…? I just sit back and let Stillgotshoes do the fighting now.

    Hey Claytonator, You are “pre” my time here but as for the fighting, none of that now, I don’t bother with him. He has already lost, just has not realised it yet.
    When the realisation sets in, his moves will be interesting to see…

    (Biker Pete)
    Travs of WA Posted at 1:07 PM February 03, 2011

    I was reflecting on your comments defending interest rate rises and your later comment about the bank owning your house, ‘Sticks’. Quite illogical. Rates rise and your repayments are higher, but _not_ claimable. Yes, any cash in the bank earns you more interest, but you lose a good part of that in _tax._ Spin? We have the bases covered. Rates go up, so do the rates in our off$et$. More construction? We sell land. Rents plateau? We’re more than positively geared; who cares? Correction in prices? We don’t sell anything. No need to sell… they’re all good earners.

    “Correction in prices? We don’t sell anything. No need to sell”

    My figures here.. plucked from thin air.. for example purposes only…. $5million property portfolio looks like taking a 40% hit… He is going to sell.
    China take a breather and his “mining industry Tenants” move on, he will want to rent out but can’t… need to drop rental price.. still can’t get anyone, he will want to sell and won’t be able to in a falling market without dropping his prices.
    Property market has started it’s decline on the eastern side of Australia.
    “mining” fuelled property in WA may have a little longer but it’s correction is assured as well.

    Banking tussle for mortgage share is showing how fine the liquidity and growth balance is for the banks and how aware they are of it.

    Again my figures for example purposes..

    Mortgage share big banks CBA 35% WBC 30% NAB 20% ANZ 15% = 100% of big fours mortgage book..

    Possible outcome… CBA 27% WBC 22% NAB 27% ANZ 24% = 100% of big fours mortgage book..

    Same amount of tins of soup in the pantry, just rearranged on different shelves.
    Discounting has made them worth less.. No fees, No Charges, Lower Rates all good for the Mortgage Holder.. Lower interest rates on saveings, offsets, Higher rates on personal loans, credit cards and business loans to TRY and make up shortfall.. Reduced earnings for banks = reduced profits for banks = higher need for funding from overseas = even less profit = share holders take a bath on shares

    CBA Shares at $30 bucks will be reasonable value to me again, like they were a couple of years ago.. $31 I bought em at ;) WBC $14 or so

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 2, 2011
  54. N Fool Punter: “Income or Savings ??? why do you dodge this simple clarification?”

    In the immortal words of Benjamin Franklin: /www.quotedb.com/quotes/977

  55. Shoes: “…as for the fighting, none of that now, I don’t bother with him.”

    You don’t?

    “…guessing he has had his prostate removed due to prostrate cancer… First he pissed blood must have been frightning.. Survivability is quite high from that though so that is not a good enough disease for him to contract… Liver is for sure the way for him, at his age highly unlikely to get a transplant… Coming of his bike and breaking his neck is a close second to things that I could wish for to happen to him.. Pushing the keys on the keyboard while his wife changes his bag… Wipes his ar$e, and feeds him with a spoon…”

    Nope, I don’t bother you at all, son!~ ;)

  56. As they say in (pig) Latin, you’re one ‘sic fuc’! :D

  57. Went to an auction in rooms last week in Brizzy. 6 properties, all passed in. Went to another the day after, passed in. Auctioneer Said “any offers over 1.5 mill” – silence. 10 minutes of BS then “any offers over 1.1 mill” – silence and some amusement. Passed in. We have an auction mentallity in Brizzy, when prices are on the up, the agents don’t know what to put on them. When prices are on the down-slope, same thing happens. Some very poor outcomes at auction at pressent,alot being passed in without even a bid. The agents know how bad it is, the vendors are in first stage of self denial. So no hard evidence yet as nothing selling, but not everyone can hold out and the sales will come through. Waiting to see some more developers take a dive, then we will know that its on.

  58. Hi smallcap, look on the upside.
    No sale, no problem (for Mr or Mrs RE Dude).
    What does an auction cost? $5000 or thereabouts.
    Money for nothing!
    Pretty well sums up the RE industry, come to think of it.

  59. Biker,

    I hold no animosity toward you. I don’t care whether our opinions are similar, whether you lie or what your opinion is of me. I know you struggle with this concept just now and think everyone is as obsessed as you.

    I offer you one piece of friendly advice. LEAVE. Get a new perspective on your battles here. Go visit your kids & grandkids. Forget about this site for a while. It is not healthy.

    Clayton / Shoes,

    The disintegration of a mind is compelling viewing for a while, but then it just turns sad.

    I do pity our mutual friend.

    He is obsessed. He cannot leave this site and his battles. He therefore cannot comprehend those that can.

    I hope he takes my advice.

    Good luck to all. Interesting times ahead for all asset classes whether you are bull or bear.

  60. I thought this site was a forum to read about and discuss relevant financial issues, for some, it seems to have moved to a whole new and trivial sphere. I would request the editors do a bit of editing and get rid of some of these posts. No swipe an anybody in particular but you know who you are. Either stick to the issues or take your personal abuse off to some teens social networking site, please.

    IN GENERAL:

    I for one did okay out of RIO when everybody else was (including TDR) was harping on about the new mining tax (got in on the day MR KRUDD first mentioned it and out at +8.3%). Seems RIO just kept going from strenght to strength (should have stayed, but EVERYBODY was damming Iron 9mths ago). Played with oil, got out (a bit early) and into some safe highstreet names (and collected the divi).

    Have gone back into gold on the strenght of TDR, am a bit in front, hoping for greater things though. Want to be gold only by end of April (“sell in May and stay away”). Think you have to keep moving in this market. Now buying stocks i held 12 mths ago, for less than i bought them last year, selling and making a profit. I think its the market where you limit your risk by turning a coin then pulling out into cash until find another proposition. Yes, i am a bottom feeder. Am up 20% since July. If u use TDR to make some informed decisions (instead of sniping at people you don’t know) you can make a quid. I’m here to make a quid.

    Thanks TDR

  61. Prozak, your views are merde, son. Always have been.
    I am no more likely to leave than you are to grow an intellect.

    Take another pill and chill. :D

  62. Amen smallcap – amen. So sick of the sniping on this site – completely sick of it. It is beyond pathetic and tiring, it is just sad.

    To all those who predict a property crash I will re-iterate what I have said countless times before. The missing ingredient in Oz is high unemployment, when you get that – you will get your crash. It appears that this carbon tax and higher energy prices will deliver that in spades and then you can be happy.

  63. Speaking of property bubbles – check out the top two properties available at this irish real estate website.

    http://www.myhome.ie

    42.5 million pounds for a 3 bedroom house? Think I will pass on that one.

  64. Hey Don,

    I’m pretty sure most of us are sick of the sniping and we all know how it can stop. There is a common element present in the origin of every snipe that occurs, and without that element on this site the sniping would be minimal and probably warranted and/or entertaining at times. It’s definitely time for someone to give their keyboard a rest BP.

    Claytonator
    March 3, 2011
  65. Go back through the posts and you’ll find I’ve exercised a great deal of restraint, Clayton.

    Common element? Try this on:

    1.) Slow painful death through Liver Cancer; 2.) Prostate Cancer, pissing blood; 3.)Broken neck through motorcycle accident; 4.) Total incapacitation, spoon-fed and arse-wiped by missus.

    Recall similar low posts from you, in the past, mate… .
    Want to see them?

  66. I was not referring to anyone in particular Clayton, I was referring to the whole kit and caboodle that goes on. No-one has the upper hand, no-one is “winning”, no-one is the better or worse man or whatever else you are thinking – are you thinking or just mashing the keys out relentlessly at eachother? Don’t know, don’t care anymore just quit it.

  67. Jan 2011 Perth House Prices Up 6.3% & Then also Down 4.67% at the same time?…. On The 2nd March 2011 Perth Now Reported Perth Housing Starts were up 6.3% based on Data supplied by the Housing Industry Asoc ….

    The HIA put this garbage out to trick home buyers into thinking the market has turned around & now is a Perfect time to Build?……Unfortunately 24 Hours later the ABS put data out that said Housing Starts in Perth had fallen 4.67%!!!You have to question & check information or data supplied from bodies with a vested interest in talking up the property market!!! … Dont trust the HIA / MBA / Banks / Newspaper Property Reporters & others with vested interests!!…..

    see for yourself follow this link ….. http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-to-lose-money-buying-property-in.html …. & …. http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2011/03/jan-2011-perth-house-prices-up-63-then.html ……

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 3, 2011
  68. Comment by Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype on 3 March 2011:

    http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-to-lose-money-buying-property-in.html

    I put this link on my face book page, hope you don’t mind :)

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 3, 2011
  69. Housing starts? “Housing starts is the number of privately owned new houses (technically housing units) on which construction has been started in a given period.”

    We’re talking about construction of new dwellings here. Are you confusing construction data with ‘house prices’… or are you claiming PerthNow made this incorrect correlation? Having read both articles, it appears you’ve misread this data, drawing your own inference.

    Despite attempting to connect these two quite different data sets, I’ve found nothing, apart from your blogspot reference. Link to assist, please.

  70. Shoes more than happy to have people pass on the link.

    Better still if they know of any examples for me to look up tell them to put it in the comments section.

    Hey biker any one of your houses in the past 5 years would do ..Tee Hee Hee

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 3, 2011
  71. Still finding your headline “Jan 2011 Perth House Prices Up 6.3%” difficult to connect to ‘housing starts’, N Fool.

    Care to explain this, when you’ve finished giggling? :D

  72. A fella I know, a _really_ smart fella, once lectured me that in undergraduate learning, “…the emphasis is having the numbers right.”

    It’s just a little more complicated than that. Attempting to correlate two sets of unrelated data, when you’ve misread or misunderstood one of the data sets, is just plain careless.

    Usually your stuff can be dismissed by referring to one or more of the eight internal threats to validity, N Fool. Hence your case for the Perth property market to fall by 20% in 2010, while “based on the best data available” (as you explained six months later) was founded on similarly untenable correlations. Much the same with your belief in a return to much higher interest rates by mid-2011, telling mortgagees they’d be paying $9K more in interest next year (2011)!~

    I’m always amazed (amused) that contributors attempt to give specific data and specific dates for property market movements. At best it’s punting. And yes, even punters get _lucky_ at times. If you’re really _that_ good, start a Lotto account. ;)

    Realistically, what confidence can anyone have in a ‘researcher’ who confuses ‘housing starts’ with ‘housing prices’ and posts such an extraordinary article, mixing two dissimilar sets of data, to draw completely wrong conclusions, on his blogspot?

    Mind if I _don’t_ add this gem to my Facebook page? :)

    Biker Pete
    March 3, 2011
  73. Correction: “…telling borrowers they’d be paying $9K more in interest next year (2011)…”

  74. Thanks old Timer TYPO corrected.

    @ Stillgotshoeson

    You will be pleased to know between 9am & 11pm there were 1635 hits on the site. (327 From this daily reckoning Site)

    try to promote this link on your Facebook page & encourage them to forward to their friends …

    How To lose Money Buying Property In Perth
    Link: ..
    http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-to-lose-money-buying-property-in.html

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 4, 2011
  75. Biker Pete….. I would love to show people how they can Earn 7%+ interest TAX FREE in a Mortgage Offset Investment ….

    Till you pointed out how you were EARNING 7%+ TAX FREE i was under the impression that all I was doing in my offset account was saving interest payments.

    If only I knew I was actually EARNING Interest ” TAX FREE ” I would have put all my money into my Offset Accounts?

    …. I had no idea I was actualy EARNING Interest TAX FREE ….

    I just cant wait till interest rates go up over 10% wow what a great TAX FREE RETURN…. But seriously I think we should share you knowledge with the rest of Perth …

    Give me a detailed explanation on how this works & I will put it up on my Blog Site

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 4, 2011
  76. So you’re doing what I recommend, N Fool. You’re running offsets against your six mortgages.

    Why aren’t you ‘putting all your money’ into offsets?
    You’re not doing any better in any other bank account, are you?
    If you are, please explain.

    Great that you’ve fixed the ‘typo’. No doubt this will mean all your predictions in future will be correct… . ;)

    I thought DM’s comment regarding all your hits was accurate.
    Thousands of hits per day claimed and TWO visible followers*.
    (Jeez, you need at least ten more before you can call them disciples. :D )
    * You yourself made that exact comment over at PerthNow.
    Want the link?

  77. ME: “You’re not doing any better in any other bank account, are you?”

    Thinking about this, it is possible, but with six houses, it’s a little unlikely you’re eligible for any FHB concessions!~ ;)

    A First Home Savers Account will earn close to 30% in after tax dollars, compounding over a four-year-period. Happy to provide the link(s).
    It will return better than 21.25% tax-free over a one-year-period.
    It’s so good, in fact, that the Shoeless One has been shouting its merits from the rooftops since its inception.*

    * That’s interesting, considering Pape’s expansive bet regarding the
    property market in 2012. Wonder if he’ll pay up?!~

  78. Biker,

    I can’t even compare us to Spain anymore

    http://www.economist.com/node/21009954/

    You can’t short house prices and I have always granted you that the market and tax system as it stands provides a solid case for long term investment if rental income compared to your cost of money holds into the future (but also that that is a big if in highly priced sectors). So I’m trying to head off needless debate. The issue remains sustainable asset price bubble or not?

  79. Have to agree with you there, Ross.

    I guess the range of potential loss in any investment is immense. You’ll recall Watcher 7 citing Keen’s revised estimate of -80%. It makes Pape’s prediction of -15%+ over four years pale-to-insignificance, doesn’t it?
    The Shoeless One’s expansive bet (a Jagerbomb) also bleaches beside Keen’s Kosczi Trek, but Keen appears/appeared to be more confident in _his_ punt.

    We buy no million-dollar homes. You can’t buy ’em for what we’ve built them for. Within just over a month, we’ll own them out outright.

    Have to laugh when some hopeful comments we’d sell in any future downturn. ;)

  80. Interesting chart Ross. South Africa is winning the bubble-athon and Hong Kong way behind. Swanny will probably borrow 100B in the next run-up and blow our residential puppy an increment higher. 30K FHB grant anyone?

  81. Its all right Lachlan because our bondholders, and all those shipping carry trade into inflating risk market assets, have CDS and because they have that, they get a licence to play at the table again and again and again – but look – someone finally gets it! http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=181483

  82. Yes, it’s a very useful chart, Ross. Thanks.

    If there’s a valid criticism, it’s that old chestnut (Location, Location, Location) we’d need to consider.

    You’ll recall that crossing Canada I reported the immense disparity between the eastern and western provinces. Mansions in beautiful Nova Scotia, for $110K – $320K for example… as opposed to 3BR dungers in Vancouver for $2mil plus. If, by some sleight-of-hand, one could transport these fabulous double and treble story homes from eastern provinces to ‘V’ cities in BC, they’d fetch forty times the eastern-province prices… .

    My point? Comparison between Australia and Canada, for example, isn’t as straightforward as it seems on the chart. A chart showing the differences between eastern and western Canada might prove more dramatic than one comparing NSW and WA.

    Lachlan, I doubt we’ll see $30K FHBGs. We’re still in catch-up-phase following the last raft of 200,000 plus grants. We’re watching it ‘build slowly’ here. Our own recent private sale may indicate some growth in the market. If I had a few more blocks, they’d go quickly at these modest (10% pa) mark-ups.

    I think housing shortages will have to become very desperate before there’s another intervention. The claim that we’ll need 500,000 more workers here in WA may predict that extreme situation.
    Political imperative may force policy change… .

  83. Shoes: “property portfolio looks like taking a 40% hit… He is going to sell”

    Ross: “if rental income compared to your cost of money holds into the future (but also that that is a big if in highly priced sectors”

    Biker’s stuff is around the $350K mark if my take on it is half close Shoes? But even if it isn’t, then my stuff is. Standalone housing and while not brilliantly located, not at all bad either. Not the sort of stuff I’d be expecting to bear the brunt of any correction – So 40% on that sort of property would REALLY seem to be pixie land type yarns to me – Unless one is a full-on deflationist?

    Biker: “Watcher 7 citing Keen’s revised estimate of -80%” – I missed that little tidbit. Though it makes Keen even more difficult to take seriously – For mine anyway. Although, yep, Keen probably is the most full-on of deflationists going maybe???

    PS: I see your silver is attempting that moonshot you’ve mentioned occasionally Lachlan! :)

  84. victoria saw 36k fhbg (for regional victoria) and it was rediculous in my opinion.. people were doing cheap 10sq homes on $25k blocks at the time.. no stamp duty, brand new place to live for almost next to no mortgage…good on them for being as shifty as the government that handed them the money i guess(?)

  85. Ned: “Biker’s stuff is around the $350K mark if my take on it is half close…”

    Very close, Ned. We’ve spent a little more on a couple, but nothing over $430K in recent years. Valuations are all running around $50K – $80K more than we’ve spent. Five bought or built <2007 have doubled in value, all fetching good rents. Two have really exceeded all expectations. Even if Keen's revised punt came-to-pass, we'd still be really well ahead.

    As I've stated before, we need to take profits on a few before our CGT-free super advantage expires 2012 – 2013. No real rush… . :D

  86. “nothing over $430K in recent years” – With that all being a far cry from the $700 and $800K crack shacks in desperate need of ‘bulldozing’ the Melburnians and Sydneysiders talk about. (A mate from Canberra was here night before last and tells me that a tarted up hovel there that I know in one of the less desirable suburbs is on the market for $640K. Though there is a lot of competition for rentals at the moment he also said.)

    But anyway, the point still is that IF there is a correction, at some point lots of us are likely to be looking at buying in. And seeing ballpark figures of 40% bounced around on standalone stuff that is well below the median sounds EXTREMELY extreme to me.

  87. Ned: “…seeing ballpark figures of 40% bounced around on standalone stuff that is well below the median sounds EXTREMELY extreme to me…”

    It was amusing to read Keen’s revised 80% crash figure. Understandable, of course, as in the interim, values had risen so high (instead of fallen) that to be back on track with his first punt, he virtually had to _double_ the crash… . ;)

    At your age, I’d probably perceive a moderate correction as an opportunity, too, Ned. I fact, it’s easy to argue we did, when we picked up two beach blocks cheaply two years ago. Wish we had bought four… .

    Too hot for the outdoor maintenance I need to do. Another half-hour, less heat and a cool sea breeze and I’ll get another couple of hours in… . :D

  88. “Too hot for the outdoor maintenance I need to do” – And some of the indoor stuff Biker – Spend a day here standing on a step ladder with one’s noggin about 6 inches from the ceiling and you realise Brisbane can get warm in summer too. ;)

    “Keen’s revised 80% crash figure” – He always did have a theory we were all going to turn Japanese – Must admit that apart from the debt I struggled to see any other actual similarities at all?

  89. In my last post (2010) that referred to Steven Keen I stated that “Steven Keen too optimistic – house prices to drop by at least 60 percent.”

    The confusion may come from an earlier comment based on this quote from “Australian house prices to crash at least 50% – And Australian boom and bust cycles:

    House prices losses – asset-inflation gains wiped out

    “The whole world economy is at risk… The housing boom was fun while it lasted, but the biggest increase in wealth in history was largely an illusion”(The Economist, After the fall, June 18, 2005, p.11).

    “Irish house prices could fall by as much as 60 per cent in the next eight years, a professor at University College, Dublin, who has studied earlier real estate bubbles, said.

    “Prices might drop by as much as 7 per cent a year, Morgan Kelly said in a paper published by Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute. The paper looked at housing booms and busts in Organisation fo Economic Co-operation and Development nations.

    “”Typically, real house prices give up 70 per cent of what they gained in a boom during the bust that follows” Professor Kelly said. “This is a remarkably robust relationship, holding across very different OECD housing markets over more than 30 years”” (Bloomberg, Irish owners not smiling, AFR, July 5, 2007, p.57).

    The busts of the last thirty years occurred against a background of inflation/disinflation.

    The Australian house busts of the 1890s and 1930s occurred against a backdrop of deflation and depression; so will the coming bust.

    How far, then, will house prices collapse? A historical precedent:

    “The depression-era drop in U.S. housing prices wiped out the total gain during the inflationary boom dating back to World War I…

    “British data show a similar pattern in prices of private homes and farm land for the previous “Great Depression” that began in 1873. It too, wiped out the whole inflationary gain during the preceding boom. Private houses in Britain rose in value by 13 percent from the period 1851-52 to their peak in the years 1876-77. They then declined by 19 percent over the next thirty-five years…

    “Evidence from the past two depressions show that deflation reduced the value of the average home each time by wiping out the inflationary gains of the previous boom” (James Dale Davidson & William Ress-Mogg, The Great Reckoning, (London: Sidgwick & Jackson, 1993), pp.403-404).

    If we say that the inflationary gains equals the doubling of house of house prices then values would have to fall 50 per cent.

    The first global housing bust will be severe as it also coincides with the restructuring of the global economy for the Information Age proper.

    Therefore, there is a possibility that the inflationary gains from, say 1986, may be wiped out. If this was the case the national average prices would have to fall 80 per cent. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 89% from September 1929 to July 1932).

    Note: It is argued that the Industrial Age proper began after the Great Depression of 1873-95, over 80 years from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (say, the Watt-Boulton steam engine of 1786). So that the Information Age proper begins after the coming depression, over 60 years from the beginning of the Computer Revolution (say, the UNIVAC 1 computer of 1951)…

    “It was ironic, to say the least, that while the American boom of the 1920s had not been transmitted to the rest of the world, the rest of the international community very quickly felt the impact of the American crash…” (David Meredith & Barrie Dyster, Australia in the Global Economy, (Cambridge: CAP, 1999), p.85).

  90. Off topic Watcher (not that many of us are especially on topic re article titled “Gas is the New Oil” maybe?) but just as a comment I noticed recently that USD GDP is now being quoted as 19% of world GDP as opposed to 24% pre-GFC.

    Your comment that brought same to mind being the quote: “while the American boom of the 1920s had not been transmitted to the rest of the world, the rest of the international community very quickly felt the impact of the American crash”

  91. Good evening Watcher7
    Your posts are original and add a lot to the forum. So I’m keen to understand your position.

    I’m intrigued now with your comment,
    “The Australian house busts of the 1890s and 1930s occurred against a backdrop of deflation and depression; so will the coming bust.”

    I did think your position on stock indexes (US and AUS) was that they have bottomed and bull market is in tact. Now however I’m not completely sure. Or maybe you are only bullish on the Dow. Maybe I was making assumptions.

    My thought is that if deflation/depression became entrenched and the zombie credit gave way we would quickly see much lower lows in stocks and everything for that matter.
    So now I’m not sure how to reconcile your comment with what I thought your prognosis was for stock indexes.

  92. Thanks for the clarification, Watcher 7.

    I’ll post your exact statement once I’ve returned home later next week.

    It’s possible I’ve quoted Keen where I should have quoted you as predicting an 80% housing crash. Definitely 80%, rather than 60%, though.

  93. “I’ll post your exact statement once I’ve returned home later next week.”

    As if you ever leave your keyboard, Biker Ned.

  94. Evening Ned
    Maybe I am a little dazzled by gold. Interestingly though my silver has stolen the show with its dazzling run leaving gold in the dust. Almost 100% up on early purchases. However 09 was a bad year (for me anyhow) so have to have a bright spot or two to keep things reasonable.
    Just on Swanny again I have thought for sometime he’ll open up the gov money tap. Surprised he has held back this long. Maybe he thinks RBA would raise rates earlier in response anyhow to dampen things again.

  95. Ned: “Must admit that apart from the debt I struggled to see any other actual similarities at all?”

    Too often, in our focus on property alone, we forget that Keen was flogging a package:

    0% interest rates

    10%+ unemployment

    -40% housing fall

    Just as some here figure we’re the US or Ireland, Keen thought we were (as you commented earlier, Ned) ‘turning Japanese’.

    We’re nothing like Japan, the US (or, God forbid) Ireland.

    The film which for me sums up the difference between Aussies and the Rest, is The Castle. Not just the perception that our domicile is uniquely ours, but more that we’ll battle to keep it.

    Wouldn’t expect everyone here to understand that… . ;)

  96. Banks said (on radio) they were looking at raising in 3rd quarter actually.

    Not sure how closely aligned the objectives RBA and treasury are.

  97. “The film which for me sums up the difference between Aussies and the Rest, is The Castle.”

    I must say that I never considered that film to be a documentary. As it turns out, the phrase after which the film is named (and often quotes) – “a man’s home is his castle” – pre-dates the settlement of Australia.

    I reckon the difference between Aussies and the rest is that there’s a lot of us who still think we’re different.

  98. Biker Pete … Still Trying To Bite Your own Neck?

    “As if you ever leave your keyboard, Biker Ned.”

    Could not agree more!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 5, 2011
  99. Lachlan: “Swanny … open up the gov money tap. Surprised he has held back this long” – I’m out of touch on it all Lachlan. Had comms problems a couple of weeks back after a damn annoying storm here that turned the sky black one afternoon. But got that sorted out yesterday. Certainly doesn’t look like I’ve missed a whole lot though.

    “Maybe I am a little dazzled by gold” – I’m fond of gold. Anyone who doesn’t think a nugget is pretty probably simply hasn’t ever seen one hey? :) But not to the point where I’m prepared to pay the required amount of money for it these days. Any more news on when you might be able to do a bit of panning with your mate?

    Ross (re housing): “The issue remains sustainable asset price bubble or not?” – Pretty much sums it up for mine too.

    Biker: “At your age, I’d probably perceive a moderate correction as an opportunity, too, Ned” – That’s how it is alright Biker. I’d certainly like to buy at least one more sometime over the next two or three years.

  100. In response to Lachlan’s post, my position is contained in the article “1930s, 1970s and Today – Expansion and Contraction?” which maybe viewed at http://www.futurewatch.info

    In the comment on an 80% drop I would like to emphasis the words “possibility” and “if” – it all depends on what the ‘market’ decide is the starting date of house price inflation. The minimum “possibility” is captured by the article title “Australian House Prices to drop by at least 50%”. See the 70% drops in Brighton, and Collins Street:

    “The crash began in 1891. Land values fell to levels around one half their boom levels. In addition … data on individual suburbs are available. In Prahran, prices peaked at an average of over £1,000 per property in 1888 and fell to £520 by 1898. Similarly, in Brighton, average property values peaked at around £950 in 1888 and then fell to around £400 in 1893 and £300 in 1898. A comparison of these data to the accounts in Cannon (1966) suggests that the picture is fairly accurate but may understate the speed of the bust. For example, Cannon writes that, ‘by the end of 1891 the bottom had completely dropped out of the land market … In Collins Street, sites for which £2,000 a foot had been rejected a short time before, were now being offered for £600 a foot – and could not find buyers even at that price’ (Cannon 1966, p. 18)” (John Simon, Three Australian Asset-price Bubbles, rba.gov.au, 2003, pp.22-23).

    Some of the information in these articles are a little old – as I do not spend much time updating, as my interests are presently elsewhere – but it still paints the picture.

    Changing circumstances -a slightly different take on location:

    “In Sydney, fear of an impending Japanese invasion caused people to move west, causing housing prices in the Eastern Suburbs to drop, while those in and beyond the Blue Mountains rose significantly” (Attack on Sydney Harbour, Wikipedia).

  101. Got this link off the Barefoot Investors Herald Sun Column…

    http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?postcode=3030&t=1

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 5, 2011
  102. StevNG: “As if you ever leave your keyboard, Biker Ned.
    Biker Ned? HaHa… !!~ :D It’s called a MacBook, SteveNG. Travels with me.

    Me not leave the keyboard? At most I post a dozen times per day. You post hundreds of rants daily, N Fool Punter. Yes, many are simply cut-and-pastes… and scores of times you forget to change your tag. Three times on this site you’ve posted in my name. Countless times you’ve made the same error on PerthNow. Interesting to see identical cut-and-pastes on AdelaideNow.

    SteveNG: You’d credit the POMs with the script for The Castle? Amusing.
    You think Aussies are the same as the English? Amazing.
    You think Aussie homeowners would just walk away from their homes like Americans? Astounding.
    Nor would we just pull the pin and exit our green isle, complaining it had gone down the sh*tter…. . ;)

  103. Bill Bonner, DR US 4th March: “Europe lends at low interest rates to the Irish…who keep their banks and voters from going bust. The banks, in turn, keep their creditors from going bust. And so the whole system, in Europe as in America and Japan, depends on a continued flow of artificially cheap money…”

    Yep, we’re different. :D

  104. Alan Bourke {REIWA PRESIDENT} confirmed on 6PR radio today sales are down 25% off 15 year average ACROSS THE WHOLE OF PERTH … & market is the worst he has seen it for 15 years .. he expected to see little or no capital growth this year …South Perth Como area down 50% … Applecross down 30-40% … Days Listed over 80 days .. Dick Tick Tick ….

    Better get back to BITING YOUR OWN NECK old timer!!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 5, 2011
  105. Noone investing in Australia should do so without reading Trevor Sykes book “Two Centuries of Panic”. It is one I recommend to Watcher if he is following the 1840 and 1890 and other busts.

  106. @Biker, Australia is one of the largest recipients of hot money flows in the world. All hot money is by definition created by cheap money (artificially low interest rates).

    That can apply to :
    # Japanese housewife model (corporatist lowering of yen and market rate)
    # the US ZIRP model(govt issues debt and buys it back at its ZIRP price)
    # falsified lower investment risk price lowering via CDS
    # extend and pretend balance sheet lending of fake capital

    Bill Bonner is slow on the prudential side of the whip in the tail of the uptake of Euro bankers / bonds. There are many more times as many undercapitalised derivative and CDS positions behind them as there are misallocated EU continental originated surplus country savings.

    Compare the price of CDS with say actuarially priced insurance and you get to the great Rubins-Summers-Clinton plan to shift from public debt to clipping the ticket of bogus or porrly risk priced private debt that inflates asset markets

  107. I have a copy, thanks Ross.

    * Niall Ferguson: Oil Could Reach $200

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financevideo/8359992/Niall-Ferguson-Oil-could-reach-200.html

    What is of interest in this interview is Ferguson views on the Arab uprisings.

    “The spark that kindled nationwide protests and ended president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s 23-year-rule occurred on December 17, when Bouazizi set himself alight in protest at security forces shutting down his market stall.

    “He became a symbol for Tunisian youth facing a 30-per cent unemployment rate, rampant corruption and nepotism” (AFP, ‘He brought fire to the Arab world’: Tunisia protest icon’s mother shares her son with the world, smh.com.au, March 5, 2011).

    Greece, North Africa and soon the rest of the world? – This will be is no tea-party.

    In the latest Trends Journal Alert “War Against Social Security” Paul Craig Roberts ends his article with:

    “The policies of the U.S. government continue to enlarge the number of Americans with nothing to lose. Washington is bringing Egypt and Libya to America.”

    In last week’s Trends Journal alert, “Global Anti-Gov’t Protests: What’s Next?” Gerald Celente posted:

    “As we wrote before Tunisia and Egypt erupted, the outbreaks would go global and the reasons behind the unrest would be more about bread and butter issues than politics. As economies decline, unemployment rises, taxes are raised and services cut – while those at the top get richer and most everyone else gets poorer – revolutions will continue to spread.

    “But that’s not the way it’s being represented by the same people who didn’t see it coming. The media, pundits and politicians have misrepresented the historic geopolitical events that have occupied the news since the onset of the New Year. Virtually overnight, the revolutions have been glorified as courageous fights for freedom and liberty by democracy-hungry-masses.

    “But it is not hunger for democracy that drives them. Democracy, autocracy, theocracy, monarchy – right, center, left – it is mostly a gut issue…an empty gut issue. When the money stops flowing down to the man in the street, the blood starts flowing in the streets. It’s a simple equation. A few at the top have too much, and too many others have too little.”

    The technological transition taking place – the journey to the Information Age proper, is being accompanied by a political revolution – the post WW2 world-order has reached its use-by-date.

    “I want to suggest in this study that the difficulty experienced by the American economy in the 1930s was an outgrowth of secular trends in development. By the 1920s, the economy had entered an era characterized by the emergence of dramatically new demand patterns and investment opportunities foreshadowed and indeed encouraged a shift in the composition of national output. But such a qualitative transformation created impediments to the recovery process in the thirties. These impediments derived from the difficulty of altering technology and labour skills to meet demands for new investment and consumer goods at a time of severe financial instability. In this sense, long-term growth mechanisms played a major role in the cyclical problems of the interwar period” (Michael A. Bernstein, The Great Depression, Delayed Recovery and Economic Change, 1929-1939, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987, p.20).

    “… [the suggestion is that] the greatest changes are almost certainly still ahead of us. We can also be sure that the society of 2030 will be very different from that of today, and that it will bear little resemblance to that predicted by today’s best-selling futurists. It will not be dominated or even shaped by information technology. IT will, of course, be important, but it will be only one of several important new technologies. The central feature of the next society, as of its predecessors, will be new institutions and new theories, ideologies and problems” (Peter Drucker, A survey of the near-future – The Next Society, economist.com, November 1, 2001).

    It will take a great depression and world war to get there.

    “The collapse of the housing bubble … will soon face average American consumers with the fact that their consumption standards of the mid-2000s, were way out of whack with income levels that had reached only a mid-1980s trendline (given perhaps ten, not thirty, iterations of 2%-3% growth off the mid-1970s base). To bring income and consumption back into balance, average Americans will have to fall back two decades in terms of standard of living, which would still put them back at Western European levels of today. But such a pullback would represent “the modern 1930s.”

    “That’s because the original 1930s took American consumption back to 1910s levels, which then represented “prosperity” by prevailing global standards. But that was a big comedown for an American public that had just experienced the 1920s, which gave a glimpse of a prosperity that would be experienced in the 1950s by their children, but not by themselves.

    “Likewise, the Internet Boom of the 1990s gave adult Americans of the time a glimpse of the world that their children will inherit for their middle age – in the 2020s – as the Boomers get ready to shuffle off this mortal coil. Like the peers of Moses, who saw the Promised Land but never got to enter it, Americans will wander the desert for two generations until their children are ready to take the big step. (And yes, I believe that those children will fight the modern “battle of Jericho” to get there.) But getting from here to there will not be a pleasant experience” (Tom Au, The Modern 1930’s, dailyreckoning.com, April 25, 2007).

  108. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/fears-mount-that-asias-bubble-is-about-to-burst/story-e6frg8zx-1226016143196

    Though most of the article is dedicating to saying why it isn’t.

    A number of interesting points in it – For example (re China): “The demography is changing as the one-child system works its inevitable result — with the labour force due to peak in four years.”

  109. Thanks watcher. Some great topics covered over there. Will do some reading there over coming months.
    I read much of the works of Josephus and other related history in my early twenties. Had to return to owner however I will obtain my own for keeps sometime not too distant hopefully. Bachelors get time for such. Its been a long time since I been inclined to study such however. See you caught up with Antiochus.E….a great villain and key figure. Ok there were plenty those to choose from.
    Cheers Watcher

  110. “Though most of the article is dedicating to saying why it isn’t.”
    Use the title to flag in the doomsters …and then give em some re-educating eh Ned ;)
    Anyway China is definitely not a model of sustainability…rather a zombie credit driven, mega distortion. But then, this little mutant may yet be just a chubby little pup. Hmmm.. when it finally ends that’ll be the end of my job. Rats…I’ll have to go fishing.
    Mate is fossicking without me next week BTW. Cant wait longer. I’m on to a steady little box crop at present. Living like Harry Butler Tue Wed Thur. Accessibility is declining quickly in state forests with every weather event. They’re ceasing logging in hardwoods…steadily. Roads mostly just stay impassible once damaged…no reason to fix. It’s important I supplement supply with orchard grown seed on my own block as much crown land becomes infeasible. Still saving. No mortgages wanted here. Whats life without challenges but Ned.
    Better go but. New ducklings hatched here. Kids have little houses and roads made for them :) I’ve been asked to inspect. It’s all so cute. Cheers Ned.

  111. “zombie credit driven, mega distortion” – Don’t know about the zombie bit Lachlan. Though the credit driven bit is obviously spot on. Maybe a year ago Jim Jubak wrote some interesting stuff on the tricks they use to make sure that their bad debt gets buried never to impact on them or theirs again. Centrally controlled banks would seem to have their advantages. Leastways they did emerge from the Asian Credit Crisis without a lot of damage that I noticed. And seem to have done pretty well to date this time round as well.

    Anyway, a little bit on their next 5 year plan:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/china-plans-shift-from-exports-to-domestic-focus/story-e6frg8zx-1226016134058

    I see Ken Henry has fired his parting shot:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/henry-laments-the-lack-of-will/story-fn59niix-1226016143400

    While it’s a disappointing summation, I doubt many of us expect much different from our pollies anymore.

    You’ve got kids who think eggs come from chickens rather than cartons on supermarket shelves then – You’ll have to reeducate them or their peers are going to think they are positively nuts! ;)

    Harry Butler – Being able to remember who he was actually makes me feel quite old! :)

    Fossicking – Yep, the mate who visited from Canberra recently mentioned he wouldn’t mind doing a bit. (We used to chase sapphire together in our hols many years ago.) I reckoned gold could be worth giving a bit of thought to? Not that one really expects to make money. But it can still turn out to be damn cheap and extremely enjoyable way to spend ones hols if they do like the bush.

    Cheers to you too Lachlan.

  112. N Fool Punter: “…market is the worst he has seen it for 15 years…”

    As we both know, Bourke will say whatever is good for his REIWA constituents, the real estate agents. Would you argue with that?
    Come to think of it, one of your mates is a realtor, so you might…!~ ;)

    Bourke’s rationale?

    * Barnett has just vetoed the state FHBG

    * Bourke is telling him that:

    a.) it’s a mistake
    b.) construction will slow
    c.) things are dire

    Barnett won’t worry about a, b or c. There’s so much minining action
    he doesn’t need stamp duty from sales. Nor is he worried about the
    state government’s direct partnership(s) with developers like Satterley.
    Mining construction and commercial construction will keep employment high.

    * REIWA would like to soften sellers up. The realtors aren’t doing all that much, as sellers _aren’t_ dropping their prices. They either hold out, extending days-on-the markets, or withdraw properties from sale.
    Fellas like you screaming “SELL, SELL, SELL!” just firm their resolve. ;)

    When is this all likely to change? The next election will probably see Labor push for both $20K FHBGs AND shared equity. Before that we’ll see rents rise rapidly, as accommodation becomes a major issue. Two separate articles in today’s Sunday Times predict rent rises.

    All our tenants are locked in for extended periods. They took our advice.
    We’ve only one block left… and no FHB could really afford that. :D

  113. Ned: “Though most of the article is dedicating to saying why it isn’t.”

    You’re not wrong, Ned… .

    In the first few paragraphs, we’re reminded that Aussie interest rates are the highest in the developed world. Employment rates are up there, too.

    I recall that Keen’s collapse heralded 10%+ unemployment and ZERO percent interest rates. We’ve a long, l-o-n-g way to go before we see these kinds of indicators that we’ve anything to overly worry us… .

    Busily Baythroiding bloody beetles in beachouse lawns… .

  114. Watcher, my book is themed along Peter Drucker’s lines. It uses historical precedent to create plausibility in its future. I don’t demonise like Orwell but rather humanise, it seeks to optimise a form of secular governance before tearing it down as inadequate. It talks of potentials and scenarios that establish the basis from which resistance to secular nihilism might arise in a spiritual and practical sense, based upon a rediscovery of the human spirit (nearly all epic adventures these days use the historical novels which is both an act of either cowardice or boring nostalgia and they are often depressive because the reader walks away thinking – that epic adventure just couldn’t happen today – but that is what I set about tackling (making your Jerico scenario plausible). I pull back before the course of the resistance unfolds but I sell the plausibility of it and seek to elevate the human condition rather than run it down like the Deists and suggest that we apply a universal Theology. I had my first knock back Friday from Allen & Unwin, and I’m sure there will be many more to follow but I will keep at it and let you know if it is published

  115. See RBA statistical spreadsheet; Banks impaired assetts B5 here; http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html
    Check column F (BBCGIORE) for “Other real estate owned”.

    In 1994 banks own around $255M impaired real estate assets. (Hangover from 1989-91?) They slowly work it down over 12 years until it is zero in 2006. It stays zero for a year until Dec 07. Then in March 08 it suddenly jumps to $28M, then by Sep 2010 it ramps up dramatically to $529M.

    What are we to make of that? Aussie banks propping up the property market? In effect protecting their other good loan assets? I wonder what would happen to property prices if banks still held zero impaired property assets now? The Dec 2010 figure will be interesting.

  116. Here’s a response to the ‘Ecomomissed’ story, Ned:

    http://www.watoday.com.au/business/dont-believe-the-reports-on-australian-house-values-20110305-1bisk.html

    Epic adventures? Hard to beat Follett’s ‘Pillars of the Earth’… and its sequal ‘World Without End’, Ross. Thought about your comment: “…that epic adventure just couldn’t happen today…” but wasn’t depressed after reading either. Found them both enlightening and inspirational, in fact. Goldilocks and I were discussing much the same during a long beach walk last night, before I happened on your comment this morning.

    Your book sounds interesting, Ross. Good luck for future acceptance.

  117. Took part profit on our F..’s (secret code ;) ) today Shoes @ 9.9c. Looking for another now and considering WGR. Cheers mate

  118. “Don’t know about the zombie bit Lachlan”

    Ooops Ned, sorry, yeah zombies only found in the US ;)
    From my post though I’m not trying to predict a near term China collapse. I’m identifying negatives. There are differences to recognise in the positives column of course eg creditor nation etc etc. I want to believe they will float my cause along for a good while but my opinions of such are not well developed.

    Harry…I childhood hero of mine. He’s still around but laying low.

  119. Fred: “See RBA statistical spreadsheet; Banks impaired assetts B5”

    1.21% against total assets doesn’t seem like enormous exposure, Fred.
    At least two of our banks figure that home mortgages are far less risky than business loans.

    Figures for business failure vary widely, but the rate of demise of new businesss is generally accepted to be 50%. Even if 10% of FHOs go under, that probably looks like a safer bet to the ANZ and NAB…!

    Let’s remember that Australia has the highest interest rates in the developed world. Keen’s prognosis called for the (equal) lowest rates in the entire world: 0%.

    Anyone anticipating a major crash soon probably needs to hope for at least 10% unemployment, then banks lowering interest rates to 0%, before you’d be seeing mass exodus from shelter. Mind you, if rates fell, it’s likely most Aussie families would stay put. :D

  120. “by Sep 2010 it ramps up dramatically to $529M” – Can’t read the table as I don’t have Excel on this machine. So don’t know where you get your 1.21% from Biker.

    But at $529M (on our $4T housing market) it’s a drop in the bucket.

    At $529B (ie 1000x as bad) we’d be VERY deeply in the poo though! (About as bad as the Yanks. Though not as bad as Ireland and Spain I guess … :) )

  121. Yes, but to be fair, Ned, both Ireland (13.5%) and Spain (20%) have extremely high unemployment, so they’re pretty much basket-cases…
    And the more Irish emigrate, the more the oversupply of homes increases.

    I really can’t imagine what’s going to happen in the US if fuel prices reach the same levels we pay here. You may recall the last time guzzoline went over four bucks per gallon, many workers in the outer suburbs figured it just wasn’t worthwhile to go to work. Being wedded to gas guzzlers didn’t help, either. Petrol prices killed off numerous farflung communities… .

    Jeez, Oz is a terribubble place, Ned. Wish I lived in Europe or the US… ;)

  122. Comment by Lachlan on 7 March 2011:

    Took part profit on our F..’s (secret code ;) ) today Shoes @ 9.9c. Looking for another now and considering WGR. Cheers mate

    Holding out for 12 cents to sell 150000 of my holding.

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 7, 2011
  123. Spain has 40% unemployment in its under 25 year olds Biker – Definitely the makings of another civil war there unless a few of their young blokes decide that as gentlemen they really DO prefer blondes and emigrate to some more financially go ahead type places like Poland! ;)

  124. Good luck Shoes, that’ll be some serious profit for a short term play. Still looks strong too but always hard to tell for sure.
    From a price chart tech perspective I’m keen to buy at present with quite a few stocks on good support levels after low volume pull-backs. Got a couple of orders in at present.
    I think I’ll keep with the strategy of taking part profits and letting the rest run. Better stocks which pull-back I will add to my position later.

  125. Comment by Lachlan on 8 March 2011:

    Good luck Shoes, that’ll be some serious profit for a short term play.

    Basically what I paid for full holding, happy with that.

    Still looks strong too but always hard to tell for sure.

    I think there is more good news to come, more upside to Gold as well so I feel confident there is more to come from them. You don’t lose taking a profit.
    PIO have held steady for a while now, still above my original intended buy price but after booking profits on these, I will raise my buy price on PIO and get some.

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 8, 2011
  126. “Spain has 40% unemployment in its under 25 year olds Biker – Definitely the makings of another civil war there”

    I am sure the Socialist government of Spain insures the unemployed have enough bread and circuses to keep em occupied Ned. The Romans figured that out thousands of years ago – the modern welfare state has only refined the formula and the internet helps with the circus part.

    As far as revolution is concerned, that only happens when the young don’t get enough to eat or are not getting enough action, considering the unemployment is even between men and women in Spain I don’t think it has much to worry about – China on the other hand has a bit of a woman deficit for sure…… 30 million or so I believe?

  127. Woolies got same price for 5 year bonds as CBA. That shows how banks shoddy balance sheets have dealt them out of the quality end of the corporate lending market. They lost the resources industry in the 90’s to foreign bond markets, the likes of Rabo took most of the ag industry, and now they lose the top end of retail. A bank is only as good as the quality of its loan book and the assets on it.

  128. I have stated my belief in the banks being less “financially stable and in good shape” as they would like us to believe for some time now.

    The recent fight for retention/increasing market share of morgage pie only reinforces my belief that the banks are in trouble.

    Stillgotshoeson
    March 8, 2011
  129. Just part of a string of prophecies for 2011, I know.

    What has happened, of course, is that banks (being conservative institutions… and swept up in the it’s-all-gonna-crash hysteria) have reduced their exposure to new mortgage loans.

    Always careful, they’ve simply exercised understandable overreaction to the GFC. They’re now doing far less business, with new risk assessment policies which must restrict (their) growth. Talking with our new bank manager*, I was suddenly aware just how difficult it must be for young couples to get a loan, even from the ANZ, possibly the most pro-mortgage bank in Australia.

    If the banks wish to grow their business, at some future point-in-time competition must mean a return to _actively_ seeking mortgage business.
    That should be interesting… .

    * Discussing full offsets vs total payouts, Ned.
    Manager’s opinion: mix-of-the-two, to retain liquidity; enable us to
    respond to opportunities which may present. Mine Dew, I’m not unaware
    that offsets offer them more than total payouts!~ ;)

  130. Hi Biker. I’m not so sure that banks have gone all tight and stinghy on their main business model. The banks are still loaning willingly (they will still allow ‘good’ customers to get up to their eyeballs in debt without any probing questions whatsoever) but incomes are plummeting in real terms due to price inflation, so when you take into account the cost of living, the cost of insurance (which, yes, now they insist on, quite reasonably), housing prices and the relatively stagnant wage growth, then people find they simply cannot borrow the required sum. It’s not about access to credit but the inability to service the kinds of loans people consider normal these days.

    What I have seen though is that increasingly the banks are slow to complete their paperwork to issue the loan and more settlements than usual are occurring late. I don’t know what that is a symptom of. Cash flow troubles we don’t know about, perhaps?

  131. What happened, Dan, was that I took in a folder containing photos of our properties, Super statements and bank holdings. The manager was gobsmacked.

    “You couldn’t do that today!~”* was the response, once our situation, present and future, was examined in depth. I was then advised the new limits on loans… incredibly tight… very restrictive. This was a surprise, I must admit. We thought, as you’ve argued above, it was still relatively easy to access money. It’s not.

    If I’m right, it will become much easier as the defensive position which occurred during and after the GFC is relaxed. I don’t share the very pessimistic view of banks some here hold dear, although I understand their need to nurture these perceptions. Australia’s relative immunity from major financial trauma was, in good opart, due to our banks’ higher lending standards.

    * Strange comment, as two loans were taken out just over two years ago. ;)

  132. Keep clutching at straws Biker …. WESTPAC statement can be filed next to your pipe dream of Troy Buswell boosting FHBG the FHBG to $20K …

    Easy call for WESTPAC to make with international markets forecasting rates to go up? ….

    When rates fall at the end of 2012? …

    Sorry that was 2012??? … 21 months later??? …

    How come WESTPAC did not lock in low rates 21 months prior to the GFC hitting & their costs of funds went up? …. Clearly they have the ability to see 21 months out yet they did not act??? ..WHAT A JOKE!!!! ….

    It would be like PETROL Companies saying today when fuel prices fall we will pass on the falls to our customers?? … REALLY !!!! ….

    DUH!!!…

    If WESTPAC did not pass on any reduced rates other BANKS would steal their customers & they would lose their market share ….

    But the flip side of the coin is when rates go up Ms Kelly can also put Rates up….

    You put a lot of faith in WESTPAC being able to forecast rates 21 months out??? … Must be the only Bank in the world with this ability…. The other three are unable to forecast to the end of this year let alone 2012 … But all you need do is look at WESTPAC FIXED RATES? … Not trending down are they??

    The reason your Bank manager was Gobsmacked was because you were in his office trying to Bite your own Neck!!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 8, 2011
  133. Could have saved himself (and everyone else) time by just typing the “DUH!!!” bit of his comment I reckon! ;)

    Night all. :)

  134. Ned, he’s smarting because I’ve caught him out in (yet another) lie over at PerthNow… in this case, he’s denying he boasted he was out to P*O*P the Perth property market… asked for the link… and of course, I’ve got it. _And_ his reply, in which he explained how he’d do it…!

    If you had read my earlier posts, N Fool, I surmised that we’d see easier access to loans as banks shrugged off their unnecessary fears of a property collapse… and started to really compete. Kelly? She utterly blew it, along with Norriss, when they amped RBA recommendations.
    How can either restore borrowers’ trust?

    Never was much good at either cooking or drama, or the drama of cooking… which seems to be all the rage on ‘reality’ TV, these daze. But I do recognise that a really top Armageddon Recipe, a la Keen, Karan, Edgerton & Ko, needs the following essential ingredients:

    Two cups of unemployment;

    Four heaped tablespoons of bank failures;

    Zero percent of finely powdered interest rates.

    Sadly, these ingredients, common around the western nations of the world, appear to be missing from our homeland. As Iron Chefs, we can only rant and rage in the heat of our kitchens, in the hope that one day we’ll be able to obtain these highly-desirable delicacies… . ;)

    Biker Pete
    March 8, 2011
  135. World class MUPPET!!

    But the good news is I just cracked 1095 hits today on my Blog!!

    187 from Ireland .. 221 From UK .. all those migrants doing the research on the web about property hearing my message on property & you just talk about me?

    What a chump !!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 9, 2011
  136. Keep up Old Timer

    I surmised that we’d see easier access to loans as banks shrugged off their unnecessary fears of a property collapse…

    http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/moneymag/latestmoneyarticles/8216560/new-home-loan-trap

    Cuts out a lot of the bidders / buyers / speculators in the market.

    You really do live in a world of denial!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 9, 2011
  137. N Fool Punter: “You really do live in a world of denial!!”

    And apparently you dwell in the cyberspace of Ireland and the UK. :D

    1095 hits! Fantastic. Hardly makes up for all the smacks you get here and on PerthNow, though. It’s amusing to see you now regularly _confessing_ to being a liar over at PN, by-the-way. Do you think this somehow ameliorates the lies?

    Don’t you see that when someone like Dogman actually _proves_ you lied… and you then respond you were just trying to catch us out… see if we were paying attention, etc… your credibility gets utterly, totally flushed?

    No, you don’t see it. You’re back each new day, with hundreds of copy-and-pastes, figuring there must be _someone_ who didn’t see you caught out.
    Our prisons are rife with sociopaths, Fool. You’re not unique… . ;)

  138. Biker, I hear the same talk directly from bank managers too – that they are tightening their requirements and so on, but when it comes to actual applications I have heard different – some people walk in and walk out after half an hour with a loan approval for 90% for, say, 800k. On the other hand, the number of people who can just do that now is falling as (in my opinion) the real estate market approaches another correction.

  139. Thanks for those comments, Dan.

    I think for once, N Fool Punter’s link may actually be helpful in understanding the likely situation:

    http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/moneymag/latestmoneyarticles/8216560/new-home-loan-trap

    According to the latest news, banks’ funding costs are down… and likely to continue to fall. All this begs the question ‘If banks are to grow their business, in what will now be a fiercely-competitive market, how will they do so?’ Yes, we’ll see a credit card war heighten, but the major business remains mortgages. If (even more) stringent new reguations hamper bank growth, it’s possible only reduced rates or larger FHOGs will make their growth possible. I’m not predicting either or both, but governments do monitor bank health quite closely.

    CBA and Westpac must be scared spitless by the July 1st policy changes…
    and rightly so… . :D

    Biker Pete
    March 9, 2011
  140. Story on ABC News {9/03/2011.. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/09/3159177.htm}..

    ABS Data shows home loans fell 4.5 per cent from Dec 2010 to Jan 201. Economists were expecting home loans to fall just 1 per cent in the month.

    (FORECASTS WERE FOR 1% BUT THE ACTUAL WAS 4.5% … Anybody hear warning Bells?}…

    Loans for investment housing also slumped 6.8 per cent in January.

    {Forecasts for this were 1.5% although this is not mentioned in the story} …

    How would these numbers translate over a 12 month period? …..

    Well actually that would be silly just to take a number & multiply it by 12 …

    Lets be reasonable lets say it is only half as bad as what it looks??? …

    Well that would work out to Home loans for owner occupiers dropping 27% in the next 12 months & investors falling 41% …

    Now keep in mind the December 2011 numbers for both were already down 30% …

    So if you had a starting number of 100 less 30% = 70 then less 27% = 51 or a reduction of 49% in home loans for owner occupiers in a 2 year period (Jan 2010 – Dec 2011) & a reduction of investors loans in the same period of 59% …

    This is CONSERVATIVE only taking into account only 50% of Jan 2011 trend!! OUCH!!

    So what would this do for property prices?

    Here are some examples from Perth …. http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-to-lose-money-buying-property-in.html

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 9, 2011
  141. Yeh, so property has cycles. Like the moon – And other things. Whoopee do. Now come along and tell me you are expecting prices to go UP a lot (and why) and THAT I’ll find worth listening to …

  142. Ned

    There are a number of examples of this around the world….

    Japan 20 year Cycle & Counting
    USA 5 year Cycle & Counting
    Others just starting their Cycle Ireland/ Portugal / Spain / Iceland / UK / Nth Ireland

    You keep living in denial & making such a worthwhile contribution to every debate!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 9, 2011
  143. I think you are full of crap Fool – Your only interest is in getting your arse out of a $700K property into a $2m property. On the cheap. Can’t particularly see why it won’t work for you either? But stop boring me crapless while you are trying to wangle it hey? You really couldn’t possibly imagine how disinterested I actually am in your schemes.

  144. 20,400+ property listings just on the Gold Coast.

    Haha! “It’s diffrent ear”. To be sure to be sure it is.

  145. Workers urgently needed in nz bi_ker peat so grab ya chum Ned S get over there pronto!

    http://www.news.com.au/world/business-booms-for-sex-workers-after-quake/story-e6frfkyi-1226019307466

  146. Yep, you’re Prozak, all right, NV.
    Vouz avez plein de merde…

  147. What a strange comment NV?

    Anyway, I’ve had a lovely day with family today … Ta! (It was my dad’s birthday.) And am looking forward to another one tomorrow with it being my mum and dad’s wedding anniversary. Special time of year this for Ned S ‘n mob! Hope you enjoyed yourself too …

  148. @ Biker … When you stop Biting your own Neck take a look at this link:

    http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/beautiful-one-day-for-sale-the-next-20110311-1bqj1.html

    If you read this then close your eyes you would swear it was my handy work because I have been saying exactly the same thing for over a year!!!

    Wonder how this Jurno picked up on this aspect of property!

    Ummm was he the guy I took to lunch with the Today tonight Jurno??? … TEE HEE HEE

    Now have a look at some of the points the Jurno raises!!!

    “In 1994 the average annual wage in Australia was $28,080. By 2010, it had risen to $50,824. That is a very healthy increase of 80 per cent.”

    “If people spent the same proportion of their income on their home in 2010 as they did in 1994, that would have resulted in an 80 per cent increase in house prices”

    “In 1994, the median property price was $148,800, while in 2010, RP Data found the median was about $450,000. That is an increase of more than 200 per cent.”

    “Had property prices increased at the same level as wages, the median house price in Australia would be about $267,000 – 41 per cent below what they are. (By contrast, had house prices simply tracked the consumer price index, using 1994 as a base, house prices should be $230,640 – or about 49 per cent lower than at present).”

    “While housing bulls will point to a shortage of property or rising incomes, the real reason for house price increases is far more nefarious. Since 1994, the ratio of housing debt to housing assets has risen from 15.8 per cent to 28.7 per cent. ”

    “Unsurprisingly, rental amounts have increased at a relatively similar level to household earnings. As a result, net yields on housing in capital cities have slumped to about 2 per cent – far lower than the return one can receive in the bank.”

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 12, 2011
  149. Actually Biker you are the one that is Full of Sh1t !!!

    SMH now spreading my message while you continue to Bite your Own Neck!!!

    Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype
    March 12, 2011
  150. * Housing is about 41% overpriced? (Based on wages – Forget CPI as that’s a BS figure.) And based on a 1994 starting point – Which I’ll choose to accept – Though lots mightn’t?

    So what’s happened since 1994 (or thereabouts) that could be of major import? Well, for now at least I’m having just two basic little thoughts:

    1) In 2000 we got a GST that added 10% to the price of everything. With a FHOG coming in (around the same time?) to help offset the impact of the GST – As I recall? With FBs being able to leverage their FHOG up by about tenfold (or some such as I understand it?)

    2) And at much the same time(???) we got 9% super across the board – Lucky bloody us – As it meant that we EFFECTIVELY took a 9% wage cut – No freebies sorry folk – You just don’t get it now – You’ve got to wait! [Ding, ding – Less wages – So house prices should be lower to reflect that right?] – Nope, banks aren’t silly – They know we are ‘good for it’ – Eventually anyway. So just allow us to borrow the shortfall! (Even though that 9% disparity shows up in any comparison of house price to wage ratios pre and post.

    10% + 9% = 19%.
    41% – 19% = 22%
    Waving moist pinkie in air – Could we be maybe 22% overpriced? Yeah, maybe? Certainly that sort of pretty much fits with my personal gut feel???

    As to “net yields on housing in capital cities have slumped to about 2 per cent – far lower than the return one can receive in the bank” – Even I do a bit better than that on rent from my housing (about 3% – before tax admittedly – on peak of boom prices I reckon – In Brisbane.) And I’m a numpty!

    But add a 3.5% pa increase in price/value to keep abreast of inflation in labour, fuel, guv charges, more OH&S/other regs over time, materials, whatever; Plus the inherently ever increasing value of property bought ‘closer in’ now than stuff bought ‘further out’ later [in a nation with a growing population where that factor actually counts for a bit with said nation never really seeming to have come to love highrise stuff close in], yep, it’s got to be considered to be potentially at least on par with the 6.5% one can get at the bank. (Market ups and downs one won’t get exposed to from putting cash in bank aside.) IMO anyway.

    With me personally thinking our market IS A bit UP at moment – And may well come down – A bit. But NOT 41% …

    With that all being an extraordinarily simplistic analysis. Thoughts from others? (I’m a bit pissed and could well have missed something glaringly obvious/said something incredibly stupid! :D )

    Nite to all! :)

  151. Comment by Ned S on 11 March 2011:

    “What a strange comment NV?”

    Just trying to spice the tension in here Ned S and since home equity is entering its diminishing phase I thought you ‘geared up’ folk might like to ‘get in early before it’s too late’ and earn a bit of extra cash.

  152. It was a pretty disgusting comment nv – no doubt about that.

  153. Comment by Don on 12 March 2011:

    “It was a pretty disgusting comment nv – no doubt about that.”

    Compared to Bi_ker peat and Ned Ss name calling and demonising of others in here and then of course ‘the global elites’ murderous even genocidal rampage for resources in the middle east and elswhere I do not think my commenmt anywhere near disgusting, Don.

    I personaly find their (Bi_ker peat & Ned S) endless spruiking of the property market disgusting, nothing but paid scribes akin to journalistic prostitution.

    Of course it doesn’t matter what is happening around the world as long as we don’t poke a bit cheek at those greedy baby boomer generational tapeworm property investors who stand to lose an entire life’s hard investment thinking kinda work as their investment’s head south in what is emerging as a long term trend, now can we.

  154. N Fool Punter: “Ummm was he the guy I took to lunch with the Today tonight Jurno??? … TEE HEE HEE”

    Let’s guess then. You told him:

    * about the SIX houses you own (?)

    * about the house you ‘live in’ that trebled in value in eight years (?)

    * that you’re only doing this to help “my children and yours” (?)

    You’re full of it, all right… .

    Enjoy your ‘fifteen minutes of fame’, N Fool Punter, as Keenly as you like.
    Time quickly consigns sociopaths who get it wrong to the skip bin.
    History is littered with them… . ;)

  155. Take some personal responsibility for what comes out of your own keyboard mate, stop invoking middle east politics and housing bubbles and heaven knows what to throw up a smoke screen. Suggesting that people should go and work as prostitutes is disgusting on a different level. If you don’t know that then there is nothing more I can say.

  156. N V Prozak: “…those greedy baby boomer generational tapeworm property investors who stand to lose an entire life’s hard investment thinking kinda work as their investment’s head south….”

    Ahhh, let’s add a little bit of intergenational warfare to the global situation, in the name of the Homeless (NV), shall we?

    If we’re going to lose our assets in the Big Property Meltdown, why so much rant and rage? We’re going to get our just desserts! Why such
    ongoing frustrated bitterness, bile and bearshirt?

    Here come the Generation Tapeworm comments again*.

    Reread the instructions on your medication, Prozak.
    You’re all over the place like a mad woman’s breakfast (again).

    * Note that when Bonner takes this line, NV, it goes somewhere positively fruitful… to family values. As usual, you contribute _N_o _V_alue.

  157. Ned: “Anyway, I’ve had a lovely day with family today … Ta! (It was my dad’s birthday.) And am looking forward to another one tomorrow with it being my mum and dad’s wedding anniversary. Special time of year this for Ned S ‘n mob! Hope you enjoyed yourself too …”

    Enjoy the celebrations, Ned! :D

    Contrasts _immensely_ with N Fool’s simultaneous bleat over at PerthNow,
    yesterday:

    “I have been warning them but they dont listen??? In fact they move away from me at a BBQ….. ”

    Effing priceless. ;)

  158. NV: “Just trying to spice the tension in here Ned S and since home equity is entering its diminishing phase I thought you ‘geared up’ folk might like to ‘get in early before it’s too late’ and earn a bit of extra cash.”

    I’m not personally ‘geared up’ at all – No debt except maybe $200 on a credit card? Which I’ll pay off at start of next month as always. And haven’t had any debt to speak of for about 7 years now I’d guess?

    “extra cash” – A bit of that can always be handy of course. But as I’ve only got about 2.5 years to go before I can draw down on the cash component of my super (through transition to retirement* arrangements) with that cash component set to increase to $95K by then – As the rent on the principal asset of my super fund keeps rolling in, even if I don’t make any more voluntary contribs of about $15K pa to keep my top tax rate at 15% (but I will), I’m not too concerned at the moment. Because, while it’s not a lot, my needs are pretty modest, so I figure it’ll be ‘enough’.

    Did have a crack at neg gearing a rental house once – Didn’t work out as well for me as I guess it may have worked for others? As I went to work overseas only a few years later – And found myself in the situation of having bugger all Oz income to be neg geared against! :D

    Still, the foreign income was considerably more than I would have earned in Oz – So I could get the property paid off lickity split. So no grizzles here.

    * As clued up to the existence of by Biker on this site – Ta mate – You have provided me with some incredibly useful info over the years! (Including the fact that an offset account just might be a very sensible way to buy my next IP.)

    As to some general facts like NV doesn’t like his own countrymen, (or his mum and dad’s generation maybe?), I figure that’s bit unfortunate – For him. But it’s no skin off my back! :)

  159. “* As clued up to the existence of by Biker on this site – Ta mate – You have provided me with some incredibly useful info over the years! (Including the fact that an offset account just might be a very sensible way to buy my next IP.)”

    Now THAT sounded like one of the ads on the front page this site.

    Fascinating that two guys so close would choose to “hang out” at the same Internet forums and communicate over text so much when they could just give each other a call.

    And you seem to have the same lifestyle … which is to say that you have plenty of time on your hands and always seem to be on the Internet ALWAYS at the same time to back up each other and drown out any opposing views.

    If I didn’t know any better, I’d say you were the same person.

    Oh. You are. Well, keep on spruikin’

  160. “Now THAT sounded like one of the ads on the front page this site” – Yep, if some of you chaps could get over being SO NVous of Biker for a while, then you just might learn something from him as well – As I have – With there being no harm in saying “ta” for suchlike – IMO. Sh*te, if it wasn’t for Biker clueing me up on TTR, I very well MAY have sat like a numpty waiting until it hit 60 before starting getting into my super. Whereas I now know I can get at enough to make a VERY handy difference as soon as I turn 55. So yes … Ta Biker … Ta! Ta! Ta! :D

    “you seem to have the same lifestyle” – There are some significant similarities – I’m a Self Funded Retiree. (I retired pretty early – Three years ago at 49) And Biker is soon to become one – At 63 I think? And we both have a fondness for property as an asset class. Plus do both see it as a bit of a ‘hobby’ as well in many ways. (Heck, we’ve both actually even owner built a house somewhere along the line – Doing a lot of the labour ourselves – So neither of us has ever been especially averse to doing a bit of manual labour if we figure it just might help us get ahead pretty obviously.)

    But there’s lots of differences between us as well. Though certainly not as many as between you and me I fully expect SteveNG!!! :D

    Time to go and rouse ma ‘n pa from their after lunch afternoon nap soon! Ah, lobster and pork for din dins this evening – Washed down with a bit of beer and some ‘white lightning’ – Life’s tuff being poor ole pensioners ‘n self funded retirees in Oz!

    Kinda makes me feel for my younger bro and his missus? – Being gen X, they both still have to work part-time! But then they DO still have two young kids to provide for I guess? And do like to live pretty well – Travel and suchlike; Plus all the mod cons etc …

  161. Sure thing, Biker Ned.

    “Yep, if some of you chaps could get over being SO NVous of Biker for a while, then you just might learn something from him as well – As I have – With there being no harm in saying “ta” for suchlike – IMO. Sh*te,”

    There is absolutely no way I’d trust a random Internet spruiker, and I would suggest anyone else to do the same. There are waaay too many shysters and pretenders on the Internet looking to earn your confidence.

    “Three years ago at 49) And Biker is soon to become one – At 63 I think?”

    And this is where the alarm bells start ringing. People of your alleged vintage RARELY have patience for computers. Even fewer still would have the inclination to spend hours each day playing on them. And the number of males of your age that would have the typing skills and/or patience that you have, would be incredible small.

    And yet, here you are. The most unlikely of forum goers on an investment website that (before you started dominating it) had a very rarely used forum feature. And you both have advanced skills (did you realise that you are pretty much the only guys here that use smilies).

    In short, your story just doesn’t match up for me. And you’re asking me to trust your “friend” with investment advice?

    I’ll go with the odds and my instincts here and assume you are not who you say you are.

    – Baron von Moneybags

  162. People of my alleged vintage RARELY have patience with computers? My first experience with them was in 1977. In those days one used to punch out cards and give them to a technician in a white lab coat to run one’s sh*tty Basic and Fortran programs – Back then one really DID need patience! (Though I guess it was WAY worse for the poor baskets before me who wrote in Assembler language.) But either way when I got my first taste of a PC, it was pretty much a matter of “Gee, just how EASY is THIS!”

    Can’t remember if Lachlan taught Biker to use smilie faces or vice versa? But either way one of them (or both of them?) then taught me. (Not that I’d regard the ability to use smilie faces as evidence of ‘advanced’ skills??? In your average office setting that would be more along the lines of being able to do mail merges and pivot tables and db design and whack up a bit of VBA code to do things like interface MS Project with data stored in an external db plus maybe some geeky web page type development and suchlike nowadays wouldn’t it? ;) )

    As to Transitions To Retirements, yep, as always one needs to do their own homework – To see how applicable something might be to one’s own circumstances. But to be able to do so, one at least needs to know the option exists. And having not taken as much interest in what was happening in Oz when I worked overseas as I pretty obviously should have, I’d somehow missed the fact that TTRs were an option – Which (for me anyway) was some REALLY useful info. (Thank you Biker!)

    Well that’s another fun time over – Back to rice husks and dog food and water ’til Chrissy for us poor ole pensioners ‘n SFRs I guess? :D :D :D

  163. “People of my alleged vintage RARELY have patience with computers? My first experience with them was in 1977.”

    Wonderful story, Biker Ned. I wonder how many programmers there were back then? You are a rare beast indeed. The chances of you being real are getting longer and longer.

    I can’t wait to hear the story of Pete’s computer skills.

    Readers of these forums, beware.

  164. oh boy
    Wonder how Greg’s going in Japan.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

    BP edumacated me Ned. Reel good job to ;)

  165. It looks like he can still post to the Internet.

  166. I did NOT say I was a programmer in 1977. What I said was that “My first experience with them was in 1977” – It was as a student.

    Though one of my uncles (by marriage) WAS a computer programmer back around then. Can’t recall if he was hacking out systems for a hospital at that time or not? Maybe the hospital work came later and back then he was cutting code for one of the electricity boards? Don’t specifically remember. And don’t bloody care either! :D

  167. “It looks like he can still post to the Internet.”

    I specifically checked yesterday to see if there was anything new – And saw nothing. Good to hear he’s still (or back) in action then.

    “BP edumacated me Ned” – Yeah, the smilie faces are a bit of good fun Lachlan!

  168. “It looks like he can still post to the Internet.”

    Why does he say that, Ned?

    Biker Pete
    March 12, 2011
  169. Ask Greg, Ned…

    Biker Pete
    March 12, 2011
  170. “What I said was that “My first experience with them was in 1977″ – It was as a student.”

    Okay then … so what was your experience with them and at what Uni?

  171. Hey hey … Pete is online! Wow, who’d have thunk it! You sure are up late for a 63 year old, Pete.

    To get you up to speed (not that you don’t already know), Greg is trying to juggle stories to keep it plausable that your participation here is not totally fraudulent. Crazy, I know.

    What we’re all waiting to hear is the story of how you (just like your underlings) became so computer savvy.

  172. Did you ask your brother Greg, Ned? ;)

    Biker Pete
    March 12, 2011
  173. “Did you ask your brother Greg, Ned?”

    Please don’t interrupt Biker Ned, Biker. Ned’s researching a plausible explanation to my rather simple question.

  174. And BTW, if you could continue work on your explanation (sorry to burden you at the same time) of how you became so computer savvy, that’d be awesome.

  175. “what was your experience with them and at what Uni?” – Why would you care?

    Though you can safely assume I’m not computer illiterate – Even if that means I do not fit in any box you might like to think I should.

  176. “Why would you care?”

    I care because I think you are not who you say you are.

  177. “Who” have I said I am?
    And how might me telling you what my experience on computers was many years ago as a student change your thinking in relation to ‘who’ I am?

  178. “And how might me telling you what my experience on computers was many years ago as a student change your thinking in relation to ‘who’ I am?”

    If your background story is proven to be nonsense, I think it’s safe to assume that everything you say is nonsense.

    And yes, I do think it’s safe to assume that you’re not computer illiterate. I think it’s safe to assume that you are very computer literate … much more than you would expect a regular 49 year old to be.

    You’re saying that it’s because you’ve had some extra-ordinary youth (and really … there are VERY few folks lucky enough to be involved with computing back then), I’m saying it’s because you’re lying about your story.

  179. HaHa… . S-P-O-O-K-Y, isn’t it, Ned? ;)

    Dan Denning referred recently to the subject of technical “glitches”.

    To cut-to-the-chase, they think you’re a spook!:

    http://www.metrolyrics.com/ghost-in-the-machine-lyrics-bob.html

  180. Hahaha. I can only assume that’s an ad-hominem. Classic.

    Cool of you to come to Ned’s rescue, Pete. Again. You’re like Batman and Robin. The computer savvy 49/63 year old crime fighters up at midnight, spruiking the good fight.

    I can only assume from your silence on the matter that you’re also going to plead the 5th on an explanation of your 63-year-old computer wizadry, Pete?

    Ah well. Makes sense, I guess. Biker Ned got completely nailed when he tried.

  181. For the record, it’s been like 45 minutes since I responded to Ned’s post. The silence is deafening.

  182. ‘SteveNG’: “…how you became so computer savvy…”

    Nine years at New K U might have helped.

  183. People who did certain types of uni quals “back then”, at a minimum did one introductory computing subject as part of those quals. I have a formal computing qual for what that info may or may not be worth to anyone. Though I did not complete it until a good while after my first exposure to computers back in the card punching days. (THAT wasn’t my thing.) But when I hit PCs in the workplace I got very interested. And trundled back to uni and got a computing qual. And yep, with the skills I had I was able to get pretty well paid work overseas and after a good number of years I am now a SFR. No mysteries there at all SteveNG! :D

  184. “plausable? wizadry? extra-ordinary?”

    Sounds like a London comprehensive to me… .

  185. For the record, it’s been like 20 minutes since I shot the fish-in-the-barrel. The splashing is refreshing…

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  186. “The silence is deafening” – I was distracted – Trying to figure out what you meant when you said “Greg is trying to juggle stories to keep it plausable that your participation here is not totally fraudulent” – Still makes NO sense to me.

  187. He’s probably referring to Canavan.

    I’m not.

    Sleep on it, Ned. This will all be gone by morning, if past experience is anything to go by… . ;)

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  188. The fact I’m on a dialup link with a 56k modem doesn’t help my response times either. (ESPECIALLY on a thread with lots of comments like this one!)

    Which just makes me harder to fit in a box I guess – What would someone with a formal computing qual who lives in Oz be doing dicking around with a dialup connection? :D :D :D

  189. You’re definitely highly tech-savvy, Ned. You sound like the sort of bloke who might just have invagled their system through Back Orifice*.

    You’re probably messing with their heads right now!
    You’re daily recking Daily Reckoning, I reckon. ;)

    * No, I’m not being cheeky. Some AHs are quite vulnerable… .
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_Orifice

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  190. “For the record, it’s been like 20 minutes since I shot the fish-in-the-barrel. The splashing is refreshing…”

    Sorry to disappoint. I was watching the news in Japan. Horrendous stuff.

    “Sleep on it, Ned. This will all be gone by morning, if past experience is anything to go by… . ;) ”

    Hahaha. Probably. I’m in the computer game, but I’m not a professional fraudster. There’s no way I’ll match you for time spent here.

    “Nine years at New K U might have helped.”

    I put “New K U” into google and the majority of hits were for the KKK. I’m going to assume that’s incorrect.

    Both of you guy, thanks for dodging my questions. You’ve confirmed my suspicions.

  191. HaHa… . Past his bedtime, Ned. These young whippersnappers can’t keep up.
    I figure the fishing trip is over, anyway… . :D

    Cheers, Ned!~

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  192. Jeez. Thick. Try Nuke U, dimwit… .

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  193. “Jeez. Thick. Try Nuke U, dimwit… .”

    Hey hey … that’s no way for an (allegedly) 63-year-old man to act. Get back into character, man.

    How many other people out there knew “New K” was “Nuke U”. And does that make any sense to anyone? No?

    So now you’re just coming across as an angry knob.

  194. Yep, declare ‘victory’ and run away quickly – Sounds like the conclusion to some of the more recent wars Oz has been in involved in Biker? ;)

    Cheers to you too!

  195. “I figure the fishing trip is over”

    You wish. Both Ned and yourself (same person, I know) were pressed to explain your computer knowledge at your alleged ages, and you’ve both come up short. You’ve been found out.

    “Ned” was asked “what was your experience with them and at what Uni?” and could not answer.

    You were asked, and you gave a VERY brief (and obscure) response. And you’re claiming some sort of victory? Whatever, conman.

  196. “Both of you guy, thanks for dodging my questions. You’ve confirmed my suspicions.”

    From this little gem, we can safely assume he still thinks we’re the same fella, Ned. We’ve confirmed his suspicions!!! :D :D :D

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  197. “Yep, declare ‘victory’ and run away quickly ”

    Bah. I asked you which university and in what capacity, and you couldn’t even answer that. You’re a fraud.

  198. “From this little gem, we can safely assume he still thinks we’re the same fella, Ned.”

    Without a doubt, that is the most logical conclusion.

  199. Separated by a two-hour timezone, several thousand kilometres, fifteen years of age, totally different writing styles… and differing views on property values… and we’re ‘the same person’? :D :D :D

    End of a poor day’s fishing for you, my son.

    Never mind, you’re the sort of bloke who is never empty-handed, SteveNG. ;)

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  200. “Separated by a two-hour timezone, several thousand kilometres, fifteen years of age”

    Yeah, like you could prove that.

    “totally different writing styles”

    Well, I don’t think you’re a total moron, Biker Ned, but I don’t think your writing styles are as different as you think. Maybe you need to try harder.

  201. And by the way, thanks for voting my posts down, Biker Ned . Very juvenile. Wouldn’t have expected that from a 49/63 year old.

    Still waiting for the answer to those questions (not looking good) …

  202. “that is the most logical conclusion” – Mate, you can’t even figure out how old I am from the info I gave you. (And it’s NOT 49!) So logic (or at least attention to detail) does not seem to be one of your strong points.

    As to what uni I went to and what I may or may not have been doing back in the dim dark history of my youth (or since) – Put simply: It’s none of your bloody business! :D

    Though if ever you should require a hand with a somewhat complex problem you come across, yell out – There’s just a chance one of us two ‘old timers’ might be able to assist – Or if not, one of us just might know someone who can!

    And cheers to you too! :D :D :D

    It’s Ni Nites time for Ned … :)

  203. Your credibility is busted, Ned.

    “It’s none of your bloody business!”

    You can’t answer the question because it didn’t happen. Knowing which University you went to is not top secret stuff.

    Don’t worry, though. Your alter ego matched your evasiveness on details.

  204. Hint: “Three years ago at 49” – Don’t happen to know the chars for a smilie face rolling it’s eyes do you Biker? But as I said, it’s bedtime.

    More tamara maybe …

  205. SteveNG: “I’m in the computer game, but I’m not a professional fraudster.”
    Uhh, let me guess… xbox, right?

    Gold stars? You want one, SteveNG? You certainly deserve one.
    OK, I’ll give you one. ;)

    If your stuff’s still here in daze-to-come, I figure you’ll pick up a lot of ones. Your stuff is pretty ordinary… b-o-r-i-n-g in fact. You’re inferring some kind of academic background, but you’re _so far_ off track with all your assumptions, I doubt you completed Year Twelve.

    11:41 pm here, Ned. Not even midnight.
    Say HI to Atkin’s son for me, mate!~

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  206. “Gold stars? You want one, SteveNG?”

    Nah. Gaming people on Internet forums is not my thing. Looks to be yours, though.

    “Your stuff is pretty ordinary… b-o-r-i-n-g in fact.”

    Well, I think you’re stuff is complete lies, but I’m not going to mod each of your posts down (like each of you and your alter-egos has done to mine). -1 all mine, +t all yours … yeah right.

  207. “I think you are stuff is complete lies”? Forget my comment about Year 12, dimwit.

    I’ll leave you to your next _gripping_ adventure, timewaster… . :D

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  208. “I’ll leave you to your next _gripping_ adventure, timewaster.”

    Whoops, the Sherry is beginning to flow through the keyboard. In the meantime, why don’t you recount your story of the computer-savvy 63-year-old. By now, it should be a cracker, fraudster.

  209. C’mon, Biker Pete. Don’t tell me you went to bed at the same time as Biker Ned … again?

    Who else is going to (hypocritically) ad-hominem attack me for a simple grammar error? Who is going to dodge simple questions that go to the core of who they pretend to be?

    Wake up, Biker Ned!

  210. I haven’t quite finished my bottle yet SteveNG – But it’s 2:44 AM here – What exactly do you want? Apart from personal details on myself I’m not prepared to give you?

  211. C’mon – It’s 2:53 AM now – Last double nip just went in the glass – Speak up or forever hold your ‘piece’ …

  212. What’s that ‘cracker’ word anyway? Aussies say corker cobber! And crackers are things I used to have lots of fun with around Guy Fawkes night.

  213. Ah those were the days – penny bungers, tuppenny bungers, jeez there was even such a thing as a thripenny bunger!

    Hmmm – 3:21 AM and the glass is empty. Yep, it’s off to bed even for the likes of a somewhat reformed naturally nocturnal type like me.

    Though DO remember to yell out if you have future problems with somewhat complicated problems – Like working out what 49 + 3 is maybe? ;)

  214. “Though DO remember to yell out if you have future problems with somewhat complicated problems – Like working out what 49 + 3 is maybe?”

    You wouldn’t expect that sort of behaviour from a 49 + 3 year-old. But then, I really doubt you’re 49 + 3 years old.

    I really look forward to the continuation of your story.

    Please DO remember to yell out when you recall which University you had computer experience with, in 1977.

    Same goes with your alter-ego. I would love to hear the story of the 63 year-old “whizkid”.

  215. “You wouldn’t expect that sort of behaviour from a 49 + 3 year-old” – Even ‘old’ people can enjoy a bit of fun you know! (Although your sense of humour and mine may well be VERY different. :D )

    “I really doubt you’re 49 + 3 years old” – Well that’s an improvement (manners wise) on saying “you’re lying about your story” at least!

    “Please DO remember to yell out when you recall which University you had computer experience with, in 1977” – I haven’t forgotten – But I am choosing not to tell you. With there being a rather significant difference. (Not that it makes any practical diff – Because the uni I was at then was certainly not particularly computing orientated. So it’s a damn good bet that if we had one then every other uni did too.)

    Wonder what your mate from PerthNow would make of this if he read it Biker – Won’t fit too well at all with his punts that you are an ignorant old timer using one of the grandkid’s ‘busted arsed’ Macs will it? (But then MY punt is that HE’S really not very computer savvy at all. Though he may well think he is.)

    Another glorious afternoon in Brissie – I’m tempted to spend it poking around the yard. Nah, I’ll be a good boy and spend at least a bit of it tidying up my tools ‘n stuff – They can get all out of place when one spends a bit of time doing some renos on a joint that isn’t one’s home.

  216. “Even ‘old’ people can enjoy a bit of fun you know!”

    That you would find that sort of behaviour “fun” is exactly why I’m saying you’re not 52 years old.

    You won’t tell the name of your University, because your story is a fraud.

  217. But wait…..something positive of no_value, it’s heading north again!!! Makes me want rush out and take as many maxi-mortgages as possible, today, immediately as in right now. I know it’s Sunday but what the heck I may as well camp on their doorstep tonight so I don’t miss out and be left homelessss…. on this chance of a life_tiiiiime!

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/property/southeast-queensland-median-house-prices-to-hit-1-million-in-seven-years/story-e6frequ6-1226020339270

  218. So what age IS a person who finds THAT “sort of behaviour” [tut! tut! tut!] ‘fun’, in your opinion? ;)

  219. No answer? That really probably is the very BEST answer you can possibly give SteveNG – Because the moment you DO answer you should start to get a sinking feeling deep in your guts that expecting anyone to believe that a person who is significantly younger than I am, has the interest in the retirement planning process that I do, is a pretty big ask. A far, far, far bigger ask than simply accepting the fact that I am precisely what I say I am – Namely a person who has a few assets and has retired early.

  220. “No answer?”

    Patience, young fella. The match went to extra time then penalties. Normal people actually do things other than sit on the Internet spinning tall stories, you know.

    You wouldn’t answer a very simple question to verify your story (because you were spinning a lie) and now your asking me questions? You’re ‘aving a laugh.

  221. Not sure why we bother with this time-waster, Ned.

    Nothing of worth to contribute, other than stereotyping.

    Sixty-three is old? Gotta laugh… !~ :D

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  222. Jeez… ! Looks like the PerthNow Crew have joined us!~ :D

  223. “You’re ‘aving a laugh” – That I am SteveNG! That I am … :D

    But don’t kid myself that I’m necessarily smarter than you because of it – Because you DO actually set yourself an incredibly difficult task when you set out to prove that something that is true, isn’t true! :D :D :D

  224. “Not sure why we bother with this time-waster, Ned.”

    Time-waster? You’re the guys posting hundreds of messages on an Internet forum, when you could call each other instead.

    “Nothing of worth to contribute, other than stereotyping.”

    It’s true. In my mind, 63-year-olds are generally wise and calm. I’m aware that there are going to be exceptions to that rule (there always is), but they’re not the type of folks that I’d take advice from.

    So, when I see your Internet bullying and generally poor behaviour, I just can’t reconcile that with my understanding of 63 year-olds. Mind you, there’s so much more of your story that doesn’t add up.

  225. SteveNG: “…there’s so much more of your story that doesn’t add up….”

    But now we’re ‘the guys’, huh?

    For a fella who _still_ hasn’t mastered ‘your’, you’re’ and ‘daze of yore’
    I’m not surprised that you can’t add, either.

    Gee, you’re popular these daze, Ned. Your Stars are definitely in the ascendancy… . :D

  226. And… uhhh… it looks like you’re getting nuked, SteveNG… . ;)

  227. “I’m not surprised that you can’t add, either.”

    Good grief. So when you say that you and Ned are …

    “Separated by a two-hour timezone, several thousand kilometres, fifteen years of age, totally ”

    … is that old-school maths where 63 – 52 = 15?

  228. “And… uhhh… it looks like you’re getting nuked, SteveNG… .”

    Way to get ahead of yourself, bully.

  229. “there’s so much more of your story that doesn’t add up” – If you can see anything about Biker’s ‘story’ that doesn’t add up, then you are far more insightful than me! Because to me there’s simply NOTHING about it that doesn’t add up. In fact, having been reading his ‘story’ for a good while now, I’ve made a couple of additional inferences of my own over the years. And just out of interest may actually ask him whether they are accurate when/if we ever catch up. But surely don’t intend to do so here.

    Hey Biker, I was looking on a pretty full-on bear site today. Your PerthNow ‘friend’ got a mention – As a “borderline nutter”! Though they do sort of like some of his points regardless … :D

  230. SteveNG: “…Way to get ahead of yourself, bully….”

    It’s always amusing when a fella who comes looking for a punch-up…
    and takes a good hiding… flaunts his _victim_ status! ;)

    Come on, son. You’re “…in the computer game…”
    Don’t mince off on us now.*
    Fight back!~ :D

    * Just an old bloke winding you up. Don’t wuss off now… . ;)

  231. “…borderline nutter…” (?)

    There’s a lot of it about, Ned.

    Take this bloke, for instance…. !!~ :D :D :D

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  232. “is that old-school maths where 63 – 52 = 15”

    Way more likely he momentarily fell into the trap of assuming your statement that I reckon I’m 49 had some validity to it? With the diff between his age and 49 being pretty damn close to 15.

    This is getting convoluted SteveNG – You missed the fact that I said I was 49 three years AGO. Surely you aren’t now trying to nail someone else for lousy maths because they subsequently did a quick dirty calc based on YOUR oversight are you???

  233. “* Just an old bloke winding you up. Don’t wuss off now… . ;) ”

    There’s a saying about not arguing with an idiot because they drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience. Besides, I don’t want to detract from my “63 – 52 = 15?” comeback.

  234. Or… I could be just a little older than you think, Ned!~ ;)

    Great weekend. Renovated/gardened all day yesterday… surfed this morning.
    Warmer water than I can ever remember. Leeuwin Current, or Tsunami…?

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  235. “Way more likely he momentarily fell into the trap of assuming your statement that I reckon I’m 49 had some validity to it?”

    Nah. 63 – 49 does not equal 15 either. Most probably he isn’t strong with numbers. No shame in that. Mind you, you’re probably not making him feel too great by jumping on my clear mis-reading of your statement as a maths fail (unless you really believe that I think 49 + 3 = 49).

    Take it on the chin. While I suspect my iPad auto-corrected the “you’re” in place of “your”, I take responsibility for being too tipsy to notice. Man up, as they say in modern parlance.

  236. That’s your comeback?! Don’t leave your day job, son. ;)

    “…not arguing with an idiot…” (?)

    We’ve been arguing with a deluded dummkopf the last 20 hours!~ :D

    Now seriously… I warned you I’d nuke you.
    Launch your counter-offensive, hotshot!~

    WWW

    Biker Pete
    March 13, 2011
  237. “Great weekend. Renovated/gardened all day yesterday… surfed this morning.”

    Sounds like a fairy tale!

  238. “WWW”

    Which, in the daze before iPads, meant “Waiting, Waiting, Waiting…”

    SERIOUSLY, now. You’re The Man… . You’re the xbox xpert. Zap me back.
    Or send me your sad/angry face… . :(
    Just don’t wimp off, SteveNoGo.

    You persisted six more hours last night.
    You enjoyed yourself!
    More to come, you said… ;)

  239. “Sounds like a fairy tale!”

    Of course it would, son.

    ‘Old’ blokes don’t surf, they don’t bike around the world, they don’t rock’n’roll every chance they get… ”

    In your book, ‘old’ blokes:

    * are impatient

    * are useless on computers

    * lie to upset you and mislead impressionable
    young blokes like you.

    In fact, NV’s take is actually a little more perceptive.
    He hates my generation, because he NVs us.

    You can’t make it add up. Ned and I think similarly, so we’re the same
    fella. 1 + 1 = 1? That’s the New Maths? ;)

    Still waiting for the airstrike, son.
    Launch that iPad!~ :D :D :D

    Biker Pete
    March 14, 2011
  240. My dialup connection is not coping well at all. BLOODY GREAT BIG LONG THREAD! Am going to pull the plug and make a phone call – Will pop back in later to see what’s transpired.

  241. And herein lies the essential difference, SteveNG.

    Ned has a heart of 24 karat gold… a much-vaunted PM on this site.
    He’d never kick you when you’re down. He’d offer you a hand-up.
    Go back a few posts and you’ll see his offer of assistance.

    You’re one very, very confused dude.

    Cheers, Ned!~

  242. “Now seriously… I warned you I’d nuke you.”
    “Launch your counter-offensive, hotshot!~ ”

    Now that’s funny. I know you’re trying to bully, but that’s just too funny.

    “You persisted six more hours last night.”

    I tried to explain to you before – the Internet is not my life. Be patient, grasshopper.

    Not only do your typing skills transcend your alleged age, you’re terribly impatient for a “63” year old.

  243. “…your typing skills transcend your alleged age…”

    SCREAMING with laughter. Now ‘old’ fellas can’t type?!~ Classic! ;)

    Now just fer the helluva it… how old do you think I am?
    C’mon, give my ego a boost, punter… . :D

  244. “I could be just a little older than you think, Ned” – Yes that possibility crossed my mind also mate. (I had hoped SteveNG wouldn’t specifically NEED it explained to him though?)

    But Happy (belated) Birthday to you regardless Biker!!!

    As stated, I’m off to make a phone call … :)

  245. How about you answer some of my questions first, fraudster?

  246. “But Happy (belated) Birthday to you regardless Biker!!!”

    Thanks, Ned.

    SteveNoGo: “How about you answer some of my questions first, fraudster?”

    First, you’ve got to send ME a big smiley face… and say ‘Please’. :D

    Biker Pete
    March 14, 2011
  247. Do it, SteveNG. Ask him nicely. I know this Humungous.
    He’s a reasonable man. There has been too much violence.

  248. Have been following DRA for a couple years now. The more negatives you get, the closer to the truth you must be. You have said it yourself Biker Pete.

    Silent Observer (till now)
    March 14, 2011
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