Get This Right and You Could Make a Fortune Trading Shares

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Knowing when to sell is vital. It’s arguably the most important decision you can make.

Many traders fail due to a poor exit strategy. Their mistake usually comes down to one of three things:

  1. Holding losing trades too long
  2. Cutting profitable trades too early
  3. Riding a stock up…then all the way back down

 

It all seems obvious in hindsight. Why, then, do so many people get it wrong?

I’m going to show you an exit strategy in a moment. This method is ideal for capturing big share price moves. It’s made me a lot of money over the years.

But first, let me tell you a story. This will help reinforce why exits are so important.

Buying is only half of a trade

I remember talking to a trader — let’s call him Ted — in early 2009. The GFC had hit mining stocks hard. Many were at rock-bottom prices.

Ted was telling me about a stock he was buying. The company was iron ore miner Atlas Iron [ASX:AGO]. It was trading about 70% below its boom-time high from the previous year.

The case for buying was compelling. I even bought a few for myself.

Ted was right — AGO took off. The shares rose by about 240% in two years.

I ran into Ted by chance a few years later. We had a short initial banter. I then said ‘How about that Atlas Iron? You got that right!

Ted just looked at the ground. I knew instantly he hadn’t sold. He rode the boom, then held on for the bust.

AGO was trading at about 14 cents. Ted’s stock was down close to 90% from his entry level. It was a disaster…he didn’t have an exit strategy.

You might be wondering how I went. Well, I bought at $1.35 in April 2009. My trailing stop got hit in December 2011 at $2.80. I did a bit better than doubling my money.

No, I didn’t get the high. I never do. That’s not how I trade.

I aim for the big chunk in the middle. That’s where you typically make the most money. And my exit strategy maximises the chances of doing this.

The key to making BIG money

Let me show you what I mean. The example you’re about to see is from Quant Trader — my system for trading ASX stocks.

Quant Trader uses a series of algorithms to calculate the exit level. The main input is a stock’s recent trading ranges. This makes it unique to each trade.

Have a look at the following chart. It’s for financial services company HUB24 [ASX:HUB].

Quant Trader Approach using trailing stops

[Click to enlarge]

This looks like an easy trade at first glance. It’s a nice, smooth upward trend that runs a long way.

You’ll notice the trailing stop…it’s the red line that ratchets higher with the share price. This is the selling point. You sell when the share price touches that line.

This is a big trend. The shares rally from $1.45 to a final exit price of $3.59. That’s a rise of 147%. (By the way, this is a real signal that members followed.)

People often ask why the trailing stop doesn’t rise faster. They want to know why Quant Trader doesn’t quickly move to lock in a profit.

This is a good question. Let me show you another chart. It shows what happens when I bring the trailing stop 50% closer. This is similar to how many people trade.

Regular Share Trading Strategy missing stock gains.

[Click to enlarge]

What a difference a tighter stop makes. It reduces a 147% gain to a modest profit of 9%.

This is why Quant Trader has a wide trailing stop. To ride big trends, you need to give the shares breathing space. That’s how you capture the big moves.

So forget about trying to hang on to every dollar of profit. Tight trailing stops usually result in relatively small gains.

You need to be willing to give some profit back. That’s how you stay on the stocks that double, treble, and more.

The trailing stop also makes sure you don’t end up like my friend Ted!

Until next week,

Jason McIntosh,
Editor, Quant Trader

Editor’s note: Exit strategy is one of the most important decisions you’ll make. Yet, despite its importance, selling is an afterthought for many traders. This can be a costly mistake.

Quant Trader uses a stock’s recent volatility to determine when to sell. This tailors the exit level to each situation. It’s not just about holding on to winners longer. It’s also about getting you out when the trend turns lower.

So if you’re not sure when to sell…I strongly suggest you look into Quant Trader now.

Try it. See if it makes sense to you. It could change the way you trade forever.

PS: Quant Trader sources all images in the article above.

Jason McIntosh

Jason McIntosh

Jason is a professional quantitative analyst. Before he graduated in 1991 he joined Bankers Trust — a Wall Street investment bank — to be a trader. After Bankers Trust was taken over in 1999, Jason, already financially independent, co-founded a stock market advisory and funds management business called Fat Prophets. At 37 he sold his part of that business and retired. These days, he’s a private trader and system developer. In 2014 he launched the wildly successful trading service: Quant Trader.
Jason McIntosh

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