An Old Friend With a New Idea on Global Warming

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Heard from an old friend with a new idea:

“Global warming is much more of a threat than I thought. I’m embarrassed that I dismissed it for so long without any evidence. Apparently, there is much less dispute in the scientific community on this subject than we thought. Very few real scientists doubt that the climate is changing…and that the changes are at least in part caused by man. And from what I hear, since it is a problem caused by man, it is also something that we can fix at relatively little cost – or, at least that part of it caused by mankind.

“Not that I’m sure of any of this. Maybe the whole thing is wrong. I don’t know. But then, I don’t know if my warehouse is going to burn down either. And I still buy insurance. From what I’ve heard, the cost of insuring the world against the worst effects of climate change – if the theory is correct – is relatively low. Of course, the world doesn’t work as a business…or a household. But if I were running the world…and I were treating it as a business, I’d buy the insurance. Even it fit turned out to be untrue, I’d still think it was a good buy.”

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.
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25 Comments on "An Old Friend With a New Idea on Global Warming"

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Fred
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I came across this http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html the other day, which if true, conflicts with your friends views that “Very few real scientists doubt that the climate is changing”. There seems to be quite a few here. Besides this, there are quite a few scientist that objected to the “truth” of the global warming (GW) idea. (eg: ABC forum run by Tony Jones, around a year ago, beating up another show that was de-bunking Al Gores show.) It seems one of the the main logical fallacies used to promote action to limit GW (i.e carbon trading, a.k.a new taxes, new fees, new… Read more »
DennisA
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Dr David Evans was a consultant to the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24036736-7583,00.html I DEVOTED six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office. I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia’s compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector. FullCAM models carbon flows in plants, mulch, debris, soils and agricultural products, using inputs such as climate data, plant physiology and satellite data. I’ve been following the global warming debate closely for years. The world has spent $50 billion on global warming… Read more »
Jono
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Err, just one point to add.. the insurance is *NOT* cheap at all. Its going to knock off tens of billions off our GDP to comply.

Robert
Guest
It would be useful to consider your opinions, selling alcohol and cigarettes knocks billions off the GDP too in misery but we still do it. GDP values goods for war, and other items that do not add to the benefit for the community so in many senses it is flawed measure. The long term view is that resources are limited, we cannot keep destroying the environment that enables life to exist on the planet, and the climate will change either via green house or natural methods. The beauty is that non of this will really impact on the wealth western… Read more »
Ivo Jager
Guest
@Fred; About that list… http://scentofpine.wordpress.com/2008/05/25/oism31k/ I too would be classified as a ‘scientist’ (BSc or MSc in an ‘appropriate’ field) and I’d be elligble to put down my name. Yet, I haven’t an (academic) clue about climate change. This is just a poll for higher educated people. However, their opinion is only counted if it is “climate change is bogus”. It has no scientific or statistical merit whatsoever. It is what it is; a list of people. Unfortunately, science is not conducted by voting, nor by polling. @Jono; It *is* cheap compared to the projected loss in GDP supposedly caused… Read more »
obs
Guest
Well we havent proved whether heaven or hell exsits yet either. Relgion relies on the same concept, insurance. If you beleive in christ or whatever, chances are you waste your sundays down at the church giving 10 percent or whatever. I dont live in a heaven or hell, I live here. So why not wast time trying? It makes more sense to do what you can now, to insure your future, so tell me why you cant waste some time on insuring where you live, in the present. Whatever side you live on one of them is going to be… Read more »
Dan
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If it’s good enough for Stephen Hawking, it’s good enough for me. One clever science dude, that Stephen Hawking.

ruckrover
Guest

Read all about it at http://www.realclimate.org – GW is real and anthropogenic factors ie CO2 emissions and methane from agriculture are the main reasons.

Brian Wheatley
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From our perspective of about 150 years, the climate has changed. In the early part of the 20th century, the climate was said to be heading for another ice age. In the later part of the 20th century we have global warming. If one was man induced, the other was as well! In either case the change in climate measurements are too short to claim either one or the other is right. In fact since 1999 the mean temperature of both land and sea temperatures has cooled. This was published in the Herald Sun in Melbourne only last week. If… Read more »
Heretic
Guest
You didn’t say who the old friend is and what is the new idea. Apparently, you would be better suited at the ABC where evangelical zeal about the carbon dioxide myth has reached hysterical proportions. Even their most fanatical doom sayer, scientist Robyn Williams,(real or otherwise), admits there is only a 20% possibility CO2 is a significant factor in a possible global warming scenario. In the early 1970’s the bogey was “climate freezing”. Stepping back to look at the factual long term trend, the events of the last three decades appear an aberration. While the G8 shuffled their shoes last… Read more »
JOhn
Guest

Meteorologists are a funny old bunch really and probably have a lot in common with climate scientists. They know a lot of theory about the weather but seem to have a really hard time predicting it a few days into the future. No chance predicting a few weeks accurately and months forget about it. However they seem so sure about the future of the planet. Interesting paradox that. Good opportunity for a tax grab though. Remember the human race once believed in indulgences, phrenology and most of us believe in hell. We are a gullible old bunch.

beyondtool
Guest
Hmm, here we go again..it’s all another conspiracy OMG!! (though how anyone benefits is really beyond me). Global warming or I should say “climate change” is very real and there are plenty of examples happening right now around the world that illustrate dramatic climate changes occurring which have not occurred for millions of years, ice melting in the poles in winter, glacier melts, permafrost melting, asian jellyfish moving further south, bird migrations changing, plants starting their seasonal changes early, droughts, floods, changes in weather patterns..etc. Some of these things in isolation could indicate normal flux in natural systems, however the… Read more »
paul
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a little while ago 70% of the worlds scientists were employed in jobs related to the cold war, military spending was high and life was good for the eggheads. when the cold war froze to absolute zero -273’c, these scientists were out of jobs, what to do…. as some may know, to get grants for scientific study, you have to put forward a research theory with some validity to science, and the hotter the current topic the larger the grant you can apply for. can you see where im going with this?. alls that is happening is again human fear… Read more »
Robert
Guest

Paul
Unfortunately the world of nature tends to go from equilibrium to equilibrium unlike smooth gradual changes. Try putting an iceblock in a glass of water and measurng the temperature after 10 mins. It will not change till the iceblock has melted then it changes rapidly.
It is about risk management and changing to sustainable systems reduces long term risk, and leaves valuable resources available ie oil for more useful things such as plastics that can be recycled.

karl
Guest
Humans like to attribute cause and effect, and better yet, what they can control. Such as CO2 emissions and other things which are easy to control when compared to other theories regarding global warming. Now, if science were to look at other plausible and proven causes of global warming that were out of human’s control nobody would listen and fund their research. Some proven “causes” of global warming other than emissions: 1) The sun is getting hotter, about 0.05% every few years for the past hundred or so years. It was only measured acurately after satellites were invented so there… Read more »
Voodoo
Guest
I remember being taught a very simple way of explaining events in life (althought it was a physics lecture, not a climate science lecture…) Simple harmonic motion: Looks like a sine wave or an ‘S’ on its side, life happens in the peaks and troughs and through out the waves cycle UP and DOWN etc… And just like different frequencies there are different lengths so if you were to only look at the trend since 1970 its an OMG scenario and if you were to look at Al gores graph at the start of his money maker it goes from… Read more »
beyondtool
Guest
Hmm. And again I can’t state this loudly enough, I spent 12 months examining the scientific evidence (I still keep up with the major news) and I am convinced that climate change is occurring and it IS man made. I didn’t come up with some off the top of the head baloney about sun’s rays, magnetic poles, ice ages (actually according to climate modeling the earth should be getting cooler, by due to anthropogenic affects it is in fact getting hotter) or temporary cyclic changes (the funny thing is that’s what some people are trying to use to disprove climate… Read more »
Freak'd
Guest

Can anyone suggest a few good links, or non-web references, of where we uninformed can start looking at credible information in support of (or against) climate change and GW?

Joe
Guest

Whether, Globabl Warming is real or not – Don’t we all agree that polluting our atmosphere is a bad thing (green house effect, quality of air and water supply)? And because polluting the atmosphere is a bad thing shouldn’t we seek to minimize it?

I don’t understand how anti-Global Warming theorists can be so ardent, what purpose does it serve and what value does it add to be an anti-globabl warming theorist?

rick e
Guest
leave ice and heat out of it and look at it this way I remember an experiment where you have an empty milk bottle, a large hard boiled egg (pealed). You get a piece of news paper roll it up and light it up and then you put it inside the milk bottle, and then sit the egg pointing down. In a few seconds the egg will get sucked into the bottle. So where I’m going with it is CO2 takes less volume than air does once burnt. O.k. lets say the bottle is our atmosphere and if we keep… Read more »
nic meredith
Guest

Reply to Joe
Fact is CO2 is the gas that put carbon in carbon based life forms…That is all life.
Al Gore and his big banking mates are going to all this trouble to create what is in effect a new international currency, controlled internationally by the big private Banks.
Carbon credits will make Al Gore richer than anyone can possibly imagine.
As for pollution do you think the banksters care really about the environment check out things for yourself

fiona
Guest
it is my understanding from my reading that if co2 concentrations fall below 250 ppm, then plants start to die off…consider the implications of that… and that it has not been unusual over the past 10 000 years for co2 concentrations to be over 600ppm and this was prior to industrialisation and industrial scale agriculture – maybe it was the volcanoes??? Further, that there has been concurrent “global warming” on several other planets in our solar system e.g. Mars. As far as the much flaunted Greenland melting problem, we all know that Vikings were growing temperate climate crops there around… Read more »
mitchell porter
Guest
Fiona: here are the CO2 levels for the past 650,000 years, as determined from ice cores: As you can see, it ranged between 190 and 290 until the industrial present. If you go back tens or hundreds of millions of years there may have been periods when it was much much higher, but there is a lot more uncertainty about it, and the earth was also very different, with continents in different positions, ocean levels different, different plant ecologies, and so on. There are certainly many falsehoods circulating, many complicating factors, and so on, but the basic picture looks very… Read more »
mike
Guest
…the rains of gain fall mainly on the great plains…that’s corn and soybeans and strawbreeze, for food and ethanol and livestoock…la la la …hurricanes hawd-ley hawp-en under satellites watchful eyes, while over olympian events…dance happity sunny blue skies la la la…but evil people languish with flood or drought or quake, like iran or korea and indonesia, they bake or sink or shake..la la la…NOW where do these great plains drain?…in rivers carrying ships full of grain…and where go these ships full of grain?…Hang Seng!!! Hang Seng!!!…so nice to see you, kim jong eel, under the weather?….how doo you doo, ahmed,… Read more »
Robert
Guest

Its really all about sustainability not carbon trading.

There is a fortune to be made in durable recyclable goods.

wpDiscuz
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