The private sector ruined itself in the bubble of '03-'07. Now, it's the public sector's turn. All over the developed world - with a few exceptions - the feds are adding debt at an alarming rate.
The US has already passed "the point of no return," says a report from Casey Research. Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart put that point where external debt passes 73% of GDP or 239% of exports. IMF data, says the Casey team, shows the US has already gone too far on both scores, with external debt at 96% of GDP and 748% of exports.
We're in Mumbai, India, checking in with one of our 'strategic partners.'
In our family office, where we keep the family money, we take big bets over long periods of time...working with strategic partners who are knowledgeable about key sectors. Last year, we missed the rally in US stocks. But we're lucky in our choice of friends and business partners. Two of our strategic partners - one in the resource area...the other in India - more than doubled our money.
Over the last 12 months, Mumbai's Sensex index has gone up more than 108%.
But our bet on India is for the very long term. In the recent financial crisis, that bet seemed to go bad. Foreign investors pulled their money out of India along with other emerging markets - even though India had very little exposure to the banking crisis itself.
What's ahead? Seven percent GDP growth this year...nine percent next year. The first figure is news. The second is a forecast. But there are good reasons to be bullish on India for the long pull. Stay tuned...
Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia
P.S. to get The Daily Reckoning direct to your inbox sign up to our free e-mail newsletter or if you prefer to use RSS, subscribe to the Daily Reckoning RSS feed.
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About the Author
Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.
Comment by Gullu on 12 March 2010:
Welcome (back?) to India. If you noticed the IIP figures released today (after your interview on CNBC)they show a growth of 56% for January. Is that a blow off or something changing in this country? What do you think from your international perspective?
By the way I think you should make Mumbai your home for the next two decades. I think this will increasingly be an important financial centre given our demographics and economic trajectory. And that is if you can tolerate an outdoors afternoon temp of 35 degrees.
Comment by Biker Pete on 12 March 2010:
Gullu: "....if you can tolerate an outdoors afternoon temp of 35 degrees... "
Same as Perth, W. Australia, Gullu. Check it out... .
Comment by peterg on 15 March 2010:
but the humidity.....