Global oil production is now declining, from 85 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%. This is like a 45% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

I used to live in NH, but moved to a safer place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area, good climate with much rain and good soil?

Two things have changed the paradigm :

1. Input costs (oil/fertiliser)
2. Finance cost

In distribution everyone has been wacked on the curve with not enough supply to cover forward sales, if they could get a hold of the cash to self-finance sky high priced inventory they get wacked by interest on sky high debt spreads.

Ag has always been a gamble but the buyers are having it all their way and will do so buying forward on your exchange all the way until fundamental supply side reform. Until US and EU farmers get stripped of their subsidies free market capital won't reach a better class of broad acre producer (than the US & EU rapacious barons), and the small block farmers from the US mid west to france to Thailand and Japan won't be forced to consolidate to equivalent productivity and their countries get on with rural-to-urbanisation social reform.

If we don't do what the Chinese have been doing domestically then prices will skyrocket and globally people are going to starve.

I'll tell you what farmers are doing (it's payback time), they are going back to old fashion on-farm storage and recycling seed. If they can front the fuel, spray, seed and fertiliser and get past the point of risk they can afford to sell a little to cover cost but then they can sit and sit and sit.

That is going to see prices go sky high and poor people all over the world are going to be starving. The exchanges have supported the political crap that has set this up mate so you are on the hook.