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	<title>Comments on: Inflation or Deflation?</title>
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	<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/</link>
	<description>An independent perspective on the Australian and global investment markets</description>
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		<title>By: rag</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89929</link>
		<dc:creator>rag</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 23:19:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89929</guid>
		<description>So Iraqi, Afganistan - oil at $70 - massive government spending = change that to Vietnam, oil in the $20&#039;s [guessing] and massive government spending .....assume means inflation/ stagflation in the 2010-2012 period - maybe not Japan from 1990, not the 1930&#039;s or 1922, not 1979- 1981, but it will be 2010-2012 and in itself an experience that will be written up in the history books and talked about like the 1930&#039;s etc

whatever the outcome it isnt going to be the party we have had for the past 10 years - governments have squandered the opportunity to build infrastructure to give back tax cuts [political gains] but when this growth spending bill arrives we will have to pay higher taxes and still wont have anything to show for it - the country is poorer and once again basic infrastructure will be put on the back burner perhaps for decades</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So Iraqi, Afganistan - oil at $70 - massive government spending = change that to Vietnam, oil in the $20's [guessing] and massive government spending .....assume means inflation/ stagflation in the 2010-2012 period - maybe not Japan from 1990, not the 1930's or 1922, not 1979- 1981, but it will be 2010-2012 and in itself an experience that will be written up in the history books and talked about like the 1930's etc</p>
<p>whatever the outcome it isnt going to be the party we have had for the past 10 years - governments have squandered the opportunity to build infrastructure to give back tax cuts [political gains] but when this growth spending bill arrives we will have to pay higher taxes and still wont have anything to show for it - the country is poorer and once again basic infrastructure will be put on the back burner perhaps for decades</p>
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		<title>By: Ned S</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89890</link>
		<dc:creator>Ned S</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 08:04:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89890</guid>
		<description>rag - The deficit funding of the Vietnam war and the oil crises of the 1970s seem to get most of the blame for the high US inflation of the time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>rag - The deficit funding of the Vietnam war and the oil crises of the 1970s seem to get most of the blame for the high US inflation of the time.</p>
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		<title>By: rag</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89860</link>
		<dc:creator>rag</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 00:09:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89860</guid>
		<description>So why did the USA have inflation in the late 1970&#039;s that required Volcker to raise interest rates so high that it caused another recession that I understand reverberated around the world - was there any similarities in core economic conditions to USA then and now - massive increase in credit/ money supply, oil price increases etc.

So if inflation does go up to 8% what will be the economic forecasts/ commentary be at this time = going to 10 - 15% and what will the the Feds response be expected to be - given I would understand everyone will be thinking they need to do a Volcker 

perhaps its not the extremes we need to worry about in &#039;depression&#039; or the &#039;greater recession&#039; but the simple fact that the Fed is going to create a series a business boom/ bust cycles of varying degrees over the next decade that will kill many businesses, wealth and create a lasting core level of unemployment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So why did the USA have inflation in the late 1970's that required Volcker to raise interest rates so high that it caused another recession that I understand reverberated around the world - was there any similarities in core economic conditions to USA then and now - massive increase in credit/ money supply, oil price increases etc.</p>
<p>So if inflation does go up to 8% what will be the economic forecasts/ commentary be at this time = going to 10 - 15% and what will the the Feds response be expected to be - given I would understand everyone will be thinking they need to do a Volcker </p>
<p>perhaps its not the extremes we need to worry about in 'depression' or the 'greater recession' but the simple fact that the Fed is going to create a series a business boom/ bust cycles of varying degrees over the next decade that will kill many businesses, wealth and create a lasting core level of unemployment.</p>
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		<title>By: Greg Atkinson</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89854</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg Atkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 23:38:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89854</guid>
		<description>I just wish DR and Bill Bonner would read up a little more about the Japanese economy before making strange comparisons between what the U.S is facing now and what happened in Japan after the bubble burst.

The U.S is not facing a Japan style slump and by the way DR also predicted a global financial meltdown, hyper inflation, a depression and a deflationary spiral so pretty much all doom scenarios have been covered.

The U.S. is in a recession...a very nasty recession but a recession nonetheless. Recessions tend to be associated with rising unemployment, falling industrial output, a drop in consumer demand and periods of deflation are not uncommon...these aspects of an economic contraction are not particularly unique to Japan.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just wish DR and Bill Bonner would read up a little more about the Japanese economy before making strange comparisons between what the U.S is facing now and what happened in Japan after the bubble burst.</p>
<p>The U.S is not facing a Japan style slump and by the way DR also predicted a global financial meltdown, hyper inflation, a depression and a deflationary spiral so pretty much all doom scenarios have been covered.</p>
<p>The U.S. is in a recession...a very nasty recession but a recession nonetheless. Recessions tend to be associated with rising unemployment, falling industrial output, a drop in consumer demand and periods of deflation are not uncommon...these aspects of an economic contraction are not particularly unique to Japan.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89791</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 13:02:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89791</guid>
		<description>The US is a special case because it has such high living standards and still calls the shots militarily, and the kinds of people who would set up a country to go bust through hyperinflation don&#039;t live outside the US, they live IN it. So, numerical hyperinflation or deflation is no biggie in the short term, because there is room to adapt, and big money still resides in the US, to a large extent. That&#039;s all according to my nose, anyway.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The US is a special case because it has such high living standards and still calls the shots militarily, and the kinds of people who would set up a country to go bust through hyperinflation don't live outside the US, they live IN it. So, numerical hyperinflation or deflation is no biggie in the short term, because there is room to adapt, and big money still resides in the US, to a large extent. That's all according to my nose, anyway.</p>
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		<title>By: Ned S</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89777</link>
		<dc:creator>Ned S</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 10:35:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89777</guid>
		<description>Pity I can&#039;t expect similar results from wagging my finger at Mr Rudd - While &quot;mild inflation - say, 4%...maybe 6%...even 8%&quot; - Over a decade perhaps, may very well be good for digging Oz debtors out of the hole, I really can&#039;t see it being at all good for me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pity I can't expect similar results from wagging my finger at Mr Rudd - While "mild inflation - say, 4%...maybe 6%...even 8%" - Over a decade perhaps, may very well be good for digging Oz debtors out of the hole, I really can't see it being at all good for me.</p>
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		<title>By: Ned S</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89713</link>
		<dc:creator>Ned S</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 02:55:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89713</guid>
		<description>Three oft cited cases of hyperinflation are Zimbabwe, Russia and the Weimar Republic.

Zimbabwe apparently chucked out a lot of its people who had genuine business skills so that country was a sitting shot to see its GDP collapse. And I seem to recall it was even operating under some trade embargoes?

Russia had proactively killed off the capitalist mindset of its people and the entrepenurial nature of its business structures over many years - So possibly had similar problems to Zimbabwe in that regard. And had seen its &quot;empire&quot; disintegrate. So had lost a huge proportion of the lands and population that I&#039;d guess it had been siphoning at least some income from.

The Weimar Republic&#039;s creditors were demanding heavy and ongoing payments in gold, forex and eventually even assets such as coal.

I think it is very fair to say that the US has none of those problems at this time. And I certainly don&#039;t see the US as being in anywhere near as difficult a situation as Zimbabwe, Russia or the Weimar Republic when they hyperinflated.

This article even gives a real big hint as to what one relatively painless solution to America&#039;s problem could well be - &quot;mild inflation - say, 4%...maybe 6%...even 8%&quot; - Over a decade perhaps I&#039;d guess? But as the article also indicates, they seem to be having a bit of trouble pulling it off - Because the likes of China and Germany and Russia all wagged their finger at the US. So just maybe, the US will have do things the old fashioned way and wear a bit of pain?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Three oft cited cases of hyperinflation are Zimbabwe, Russia and the Weimar Republic.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe apparently chucked out a lot of its people who had genuine business skills so that country was a sitting shot to see its GDP collapse. And I seem to recall it was even operating under some trade embargoes?</p>
<p>Russia had proactively killed off the capitalist mindset of its people and the entrepenurial nature of its business structures over many years - So possibly had similar problems to Zimbabwe in that regard. And had seen its "empire" disintegrate. So had lost a huge proportion of the lands and population that I'd guess it had been siphoning at least some income from.</p>
<p>The Weimar Republic's creditors were demanding heavy and ongoing payments in gold, forex and eventually even assets such as coal.</p>
<p>I think it is very fair to say that the US has none of those problems at this time. And I certainly don't see the US as being in anywhere near as difficult a situation as Zimbabwe, Russia or the Weimar Republic when they hyperinflated.</p>
<p>This article even gives a real big hint as to what one relatively painless solution to America's problem could well be - "mild inflation - say, 4%...maybe 6%...even 8%" - Over a decade perhaps I'd guess? But as the article also indicates, they seem to be having a bit of trouble pulling it off - Because the likes of China and Germany and Russia all wagged their finger at the US. So just maybe, the US will have do things the old fashioned way and wear a bit of pain?</p>
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		<title>By: Nick</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89681</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 00:04:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89681</guid>
		<description>The age old saying of &quot;the bigger they are, the harder they fall&quot; comes into effect.

Zimbabwe is surrounded by unstable and dangerous neighbours. - The US isnt? sure they may not be direct neighbours, but there are plenty out there.

(Zimbabwe)Farm land that is productive has been raped..- not yet, but if unemployement gets worse, revisit this topic. 

Zimbabwe currency is not the reserve currency of the world.- China, Russia etc are already pushing to change the reserve currency.

Zimbabwe does not have a large liquid bond market trade as a major currency.- makes no difference if it isnt worth anything. Other countries (Japan, China) were caught trying to offload $145 billion US bonds. ask yourself why? 

Great American spirit of hard work,integrity,inventions and freedom of the individual:- and the exploitation of there own people for the sake of capitalism? Just look at the health care system; heck, even if you receive an sms or a phonecall from someone you still get charged on the &quot;cellular&quot; network.

I think the Golden Age of America is coming to an end, and is trying to be saved with band-aid solutions. How did they fund the $450b interest debt of 2008? print more money. There is a downward spiral happening, the only question is which way, which leads us back to the article headline.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The age old saying of "the bigger they are, the harder they fall" comes into effect.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe is surrounded by unstable and dangerous neighbours. - The US isnt? sure they may not be direct neighbours, but there are plenty out there.</p>
<p>(Zimbabwe)Farm land that is productive has been raped..- not yet, but if unemployement gets worse, revisit this topic. </p>
<p>Zimbabwe currency is not the reserve currency of the world.- China, Russia etc are already pushing to change the reserve currency.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe does not have a large liquid bond market trade as a major currency.- makes no difference if it isnt worth anything. Other countries (Japan, China) were caught trying to offload $145 billion US bonds. ask yourself why? </p>
<p>Great American spirit of hard work,integrity,inventions and freedom of the individual:- and the exploitation of there own people for the sake of capitalism? Just look at the health care system; heck, even if you receive an sms or a phonecall from someone you still get charged on the "cellular" network.</p>
<p>I think the Golden Age of America is coming to an end, and is trying to be saved with band-aid solutions. How did they fund the $450b interest debt of 2008? print more money. There is a downward spiral happening, the only question is which way, which leads us back to the article headline.</p>
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		<title>By: Lachlan</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89609</link>
		<dc:creator>Lachlan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Jul 2009 12:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89609</guid>
		<description>I agree Pete. Without war the US still have more reasons to print money than any country has ever had. In any case they do have great potential for expenditure on war also. Money printing to service deficit spending was the most potent cause behind Zimbabwean hyperinflation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree Pete. Without war the US still have more reasons to print money than any country has ever had. In any case they do have great potential for expenditure on war also. Money printing to service deficit spending was the most potent cause behind Zimbabwean hyperinflation.</p>
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		<title>By: Pete</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-or-deflation/2009/07/15/comment-page-1/#comment-89513</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 14:07:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=6559#comment-89513</guid>
		<description>FYI guys, Zimbabwe is referred to as the most recent country that has hyperinflated.

There are plenty of other countries who have suffered hyperinflation in the past. Zimbabwe is often a good example because it counters the &quot;those things happened in the past, it couldn&#039;t happen today&quot; argument.

Stephen Johnson makes some good points about the differences between Zimbabwe and the US. He also completely misses the point.

&quot;Zimbabwe is a small in land country with no deep harbours for export.&quot; - okay, so that makes it ripe for hyperinflation? How about a relatively isolated continental country like the US (excusing Canada and Mexico) who&#039;s people would not have the luxury of trading goods in currencies from other countries?

I won&#039;t go on about the other points and how they appear irrelevant to hyperinflation. But whilst this list gives the differences between Zimbabwe and the US, it does actually mean anything in the hyperinflation context at all.

Do we really think that high inflation, and potentially hyperinflation, is not possible in the US? This is dealt with by the inflation/deflation arguments and I won&#039;t suggest one or the other will actually win. All I am saying is that this list posted by Stephen does not serve as a counter-argument to US hyperinflation at all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>FYI guys, Zimbabwe is referred to as the most recent country that has hyperinflated.</p>
<p>There are plenty of other countries who have suffered hyperinflation in the past. Zimbabwe is often a good example because it counters the "those things happened in the past, it couldn't happen today" argument.</p>
<p>Stephen Johnson makes some good points about the differences between Zimbabwe and the US. He also completely misses the point.</p>
<p>"Zimbabwe is a small in land country with no deep harbours for export." - okay, so that makes it ripe for hyperinflation? How about a relatively isolated continental country like the US (excusing Canada and Mexico) who's people would not have the luxury of trading goods in currencies from other countries?</p>
<p>I won't go on about the other points and how they appear irrelevant to hyperinflation. But whilst this list gives the differences between Zimbabwe and the US, it does actually mean anything in the hyperinflation context at all.</p>
<p>Do we really think that high inflation, and potentially hyperinflation, is not possible in the US? This is dealt with by the inflation/deflation arguments and I won't suggest one or the other will actually win. All I am saying is that this list posted by Stephen does not serve as a counter-argument to US hyperinflation at all.</p>
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