The big trend is the ongoing development of emerging economies that started when Mao died. Since then the US consumer has been stimulating the world's emerging economies by buying cheap stuff from them and running up huge deficits. Those emerging economies are now developing on a sustainable basis and require less and less support from the US consumer. The US consumer should be awarded the Noble Peace prize for this.

The Beijing Olympics symbolizes China's emergence as a developed economy just like the 1964 Tokoyo Olympics marked Japan's emergence and the 1988 Seoul Olympics marked South Korea's economy's emergence. In the 20 years following the Tokoyo and Seoul Olympics their societies's economies had developed to the extent that they were able provide standards of living that are more or less equivalent to those in the US and other developed economies.

I believe that next 20 years will see standards of living in China and other developing economies rise to more acceptable levels.

This trend is being fueled by the increasing adoption of democracy and capitalist economic policies since Communism's collapse in 1989 along with increasing use and effectiveness of information and communication technologies by individuals. As a result, the big trend is unstoppable.

Backward geopolitical steps such as the recent Georgia occurrance may slow the process but they can't stop it.

Since the trend has become sustainable in the last few years, it is now time to begin the process of balancing the deficits that provided the stimulus. The recent decline in US imports and the increase in US exports are the first steps in the very long term rebalancing process.

I expect that this will gradually see more of a focus by nations on each others comparative advantages rather than on nationalistic rivalries.

Managing this process effectively requires an empathetic and open minded attitude towards to our new partners in the global economy because their success is our future

I realize that fear mongering makes better press and sells more books and movies but this playing on our natural predisposition to listen to bad news is intellectually dishonest and counter productive.