Comments on: Oil Price To Hit US$100; One Thing That Could Cause a Correction

By: jim

jim — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 16:59:31 +0000

Of course, it's an old saw on the Street that when "there are no bearish factors in the market", you're near a top. Riseing prices are the result of ther being more buyers than sellers. When you run out of sellers that can be converted to buyers, you have reached a top...

By: Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 16:37:32 +0000

There are a couple of other bearish factors as well. The huge run-up recently, with people who have very little knowledge of oil and gas jumping into the market, is bearish in my opinion. Remember what happened with tech stocks a few years ago. Everyone was making easy money. The arguments for tech stocks to just continue rising sounded plausible. Novices were getting rich. But the underlying fundamentals weren't there. Now, I am not suggesting that the underlying fundamentals don't warrant high oil prices, but they haven't changed dramatically since summer, when oil was 30% lower.

The other thing that could be bearish is this: Consider the catalyst that set oil off and running. It was the U.S. inventory report last Wednesday. Some analysts have suggested that they suspect that there could be an error, and you could see a big gain this week. If that happens, the price could start coming back down. Remember, prior to the inventory report, the price had been drifting down.

Cheers, Robert Rapier

By: Alan

Alan — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 10:31:08 +0000

The itch you refer to is almost certainly caused by static generated in a perfect storm, which will of course pass as these things do. However in the short to medium term the oil price will continue to be driven by the winds of geopolitical tension. Just now we should reflect on Turkey's decade long PKK insurgency, the opportunity of the moment, American F16's and logistical support (despite remonstrations by the Bush administration), Israeli/Turkish collaboration (as in the recent Syrian incursion) and the need to secure at least the northern oil fields as southern Iraq ultimately falls to Tehran. If Turkey does invade the north then it is the start of the carve up of Iraqi oil, but at least they are on our side......

By: MMLJ of Sydney

MMLJ of Sydney — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 07:33:49 +0000

Conversely, and no argument with the macro energy position globally, one should ingest a huge dollop of salt when someone like the president of energy futures at Macquarie Bank or a trader from Glencore tells Bloomberg or Reuters that the market is going to run a certain way.

Macquarie at least is a listed entity, so there may be some brakes on the spin.

But folks - the head of futures trading is running a book - and he/she wants to you place out-of-the money bets ( futures, hedges and options ).

It's like going to the race track and asking the nice bookmaker person what horse is going to win and where you shoudl bet your money.

"Oh yes, Macquarie Bank is a huge charitable institution committed to social justice and wealth distribtion, place your bets with us on number $xxx" !!

By: travelite

travelite — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 04:09:29 +0000

The effects of a hike in oil prices are under estimate. It will really ripple through all sectors, what about tourism? Inflation is as much about perception as reality (velocity of money). Once it's out of the bag, you've lost.