Comments on: Peak Oil: What’s Next

By: letuslook

letuslook — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 06:37:36 +0000

Comment back to "Sick to the guts", on 7 March 2009. Please excuse me for being so direct. I do not take your comments seriously. Firstly, the article is littered with clichés, being easy escapes for those who don't want to hear the truth. Secondly, I do not feel respected as a reader, when I need to correct a writer's grammar (and spelling) in order to understand an article, especially in a website of this calibre (editor, please note). Thirdly, and possibly most importantly, the tone of the comment is degrading and again well below the maturity level of the average readership (editor, please note).

By: Sick to the guts

Sick to the guts — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 03:19:45 +0000

You may be write about agricultural disorder in the third world, temporarily .But you view of people driven to bicycles in the millions is tosh.Human greed and ingenuity will find new ways and new means of generating power.As the oil dries up it gets more expensive encouraging investment in new systems will supplant more inefficient and wasteful technology.The fusion problem could be solved quickly if there was the will.Alas the powers that be cant cant hold choke points if fusion tech is released so not investing in it is the most certain way to stymie its development.

By: DrewRiskManager

DrewRiskManager — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 06:33:55 +0000

As an Australian farmer with no debt, good farming practices in good rainfall country I'm not worried in the slightest. Being in the position to plant a crop, tend and harvest it without the need for credit to me just means that ajoining fertile land may become cheaper as some highly leveraged farmers are forced to sell. This might just provide me with the chance to further expand, within my financial means (with little or no credit). In fact low leveraged primary producers like myself would benefit from falling production and increased prices.

Its the same old story in good times people extend themselves with easy credit, (just look at Aussie house prices)while others get on with the job paying down their loans or adding to our bank balances. Its been a bad year?. Well for me its been a great year my expenses are down and profit margin is up.

People will fore go a lot of things including ownership of part of the most expensive real estate stock in the world or that new car, plasma TV etc, but we all have to eat.

By: Coffee Addict

Coffee Addict — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 06:14:37 +0000

There are bits and pieces in James Kunstler's post that deserve some discussion.

1. Yes, James' predicted timelines were a bit off (so were mine). No body has a crystal ball. At least James is honest in fessing up to this.

2. What next? The peak oil theory is not dead. The supply/demand curve for oil looks like a very steep tick with a flattish base (for the moment at least). Inevitable supply constraints will move the curve to the left and an oil price explosion will result. When? I don't know and neither does James. Until it does I will remain bullish about agriculture.

3. James may have a point regarding the financing of marginal farm land BUT people have to eat. My thinking is that foreseeable global dislocations in the Ag sector have more to do with climate change and peak oil than with finance.

4. When an overleveraged farming entity goes bust - farm production can actually continue (if the land is viable). The bank simply fire sales the property to a less leveraged buyer.

5. I note that total derivative losses are not, in my opinion, that hard to guess. All you have to do is assume that published mark-to-market write downs capture about a third of the total expected loss and go from there.

Is there any data on the status of leverage and defaults in the global Ag sector to support James’ argument?