Comments on: A Few Predictions for After the Worldwide Credit Bubble Pops

By: bzn

bzn — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 03:35:49 +0000

A good time to revist this article I think. 6 months on from when it was written, the crisis has deepened. Is the outlook still the same?

By: John

John — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 17:44:48 +0000

"Surely after the bubble has burst USA has the most upside potential"

How so?

You have a military empire spread all over the world that has to be financed.
You have rapid movements toward socialist ideologies (socialized healthcare, repealing free trade, etc...)
You have Keynsian academics running monetary policy.
You have a $60 trillion obligation to an aging workforce.
You have very little production or manufacturing, which takes decades to regain.
You have a lawsuit-happy culture and a Congress made up of 90% ex-lawyers, thus chasing business away.
You have your currency held as reserves by most of the world, which, once sold off, will destroy the dollar.
You have a national deficit of $500 billion and rising.

So, please tell me, how the HELL is the US positioned to have upside potential?

This place is going down, and remember the old saying "The bigger they are, the harder they fall"

By: Pete

Pete — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 12:05:26 +0000

Apples and oranges Nic

What happens to USA when they arent a world leader in anything? It's a bit hard to dictate markets when you have no leverage (no pun intended on the word leverage)

By: nic meredith

nic meredith — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 11:55:12 +0000

Surely after the bubble has burst USA has the most upside potential. If political freedoms and economic freedom still exists or comes back, and if America and the West have sound money backed by (probably somebody else's) gold standard, I say there will be excellent opportunities.

Look at Japan since WWll for example.

By: Coffee Addict

Coffee Addict — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 01:52:54 +0000

An "automatic" contrarian position will often fail. An informed independant thinker will often appear to be contrarian in their investment actions.

The best financial advice at the moment is to invest in yourself - particularly in the development skills which will be in demand, regardless of market conditions.

By: Brian

Brian — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 00:06:33 +0000

There is no doubt that we are moving into a new world order. However, with production moving to Asia, and falling living standards in the West in general, and the USA and Canada in particular; the place to look for investments would appear to be China and India, along with other small nation states like Vietnam.

The problem will be to invest through organisations which are safe. By that I mean, when you want your money you know you will be able to get it. Is there away to buy stock in Asia (targeted) that is 'safe'?

I have had CFDs in Hong Kong, through Comsec, but owning shares is what Investors do, and I am an investor not a trader.

By: Matt

Matt — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 23:24:02 +0000

There are a number of factors that would suggest this become true to varying degrees. I believe global warming will play a large part- making scarce resources scarcer. People will move as they search for land that will better support them, causing internal and external strife within and among countries. Of course now we have bigger guns than in times past when colonialisation was all the fashion, so it will be interesting to see how messy it actually gets.

Smaller communities will become a factor of life as we will not be able to sustain the massive globalised world to the same level that we do today. Goods will be manufactured close to home for consumption close to home, using the most economically and environmentally efficient technology available. The somewhat ludicrous yet currently accepted practice whereby *smart, rich* countries can sit back and get their third world serfs to perform the hard graft will come to an end. To be productive you must produce. Shuffling bits of paper around or offering consultation on how to effectively run the bakery doesn't actually make bread. Only the baker does that and it doesn't really matter how efficient he is- at the end of the day it is his bread!

Of course it is all conjecture at this point but I somehow imagine a wind of change starting to freshen. The butterfly has flapped its wings, lets see where the cyclone forms.

By: bill

bill — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:38:03 +0000

now this is the type of thinking that i have hope to read here.
we are in a period of change.
How can we preserve and thrive?
of course, tangibles but what else?
a strong mind, a network of trusted associates.
and a rock solid understanding that "we are the government and we are here to help you is a lie."
bill