Aussie markets look to take their cue from Europe and the US today. Sellers are selling. Buyers are spooked. And wouldn't you know it, the credit crunch and the American housing bubble are again the culprits.
Despite a raft of local data on actual earnings from actual Australian companies, the local market is slavishly following the US lead. Hmmn. Is the Australian market a one-trick resource pony?
Back to the scene of the initial rout in global stock prices, New York. In the eagerly awaited minutes from its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve said the US housing slowdown, "could well prove to be both deeper and more prolonged than had seemed likely earlier this year". You think?
"Seemed likely," to whom? The Fed and most of the financial industry would like to treat the problem in the credit markets as a bad loan problem to be medicated with more money. Papering things over with new credit has always worked in the past, so why not again?
The public senses the rot in the system, though. Maybe that's because a good portion of the public-in America at least-owns a piece of the rot, namely a house with a big honkin' mortgage and a fallen market price. In any event, consumer confidence in America took a dive.
More importantly, investors don't seem confident that the market's credit woes are behind us. This is good news and bad news. The bad news is that all stocks get sold off when investors move to cash. The good news is that a good business is still a good business, even with a falling stock price. This kind of market rewards selective stock pickers rather than index followers.
What about gold? Gold shares and gold stocks are not acting in concert. The shares corrected far more than the bullion price during the recent sell off. We asked our friend David Evans in Perth what to make of the diverging fortunes of gold-related investments.
Dave replied:
“The old conundrum of gold shares or gold bars.
“The problem with gold bars is that if you own them yourself you have to keep them safe (which usually means keeping very quiet about them). Banks won't accept them in their safe-deposit boxes (commercial rivalry -- banks make paper money, and gold is their most serious rival). If you buy gold but someone else stores it, you have a trust problem -- if gold becomes very valuable, how can you be sure that they will give you back your gold if you want it? Do they even own your gold, or have they sold the same gold to several different people?
“The problem with shares is that they are shares in companies, with all the usual dangers of companies -- they can go broke or suffer for all sorts of unrelated reasons and are subject to the familiar range of malfeasances. The advantage of shares is that they are secure: the stock exchange keeps track of your shares in a company, and the company owns the rights to gold in the ground.
“Gold shares are a way to own gold while it is still in the ground. The price of this gold, if you do the math, is usually $30 - $200 per ounce (versus $800 per ounce when in gold bars). There are generally higher prices for companies with better mining operations, but since most investors are unaware of this way of pricing, bargains and anomalies exist. The gold typically costs another $300 - $600 to dig up, and again some companies are much cheaper than others. (This is where a subscription to goldnerds comes in very useful).
“If the price of gold rises a lot, gold shares have greater leverage and will tend to go up more than gold bars (the cost of mining the gold stays constant, but the price of the mined gold goes up). When the general public gets involved and everyone just wants gold, gold bars tend to appreciate faster. This was the experience in the 1970s, when the price of gold went from US$40 per ounce to US$800 per ounce. For the first few years gold shares went up faster than gold bars (and weathered a severe worldwide share slump in 1974 very well), but in the last couple of years the gold bars did better and the gold stocks stopped going up.
“The obvious strategy is to own gold shares now, and when every man and his dog is clamouring for gold, sell your gold shares and buy gold bars to enjoy the last part of the ride.
“Of course, I'm not a licensed financial adviser, so I can't give you any financial advice. I am however a gold buff and gold investor, and the above are my thoughts and strategy and the reasoning behind what I do.”
Sounds right to us. Shares early in a gold bull market. Bullion late.
Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia
Which do you prefer, gold shares or gold bars? Leave a comment below.
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About the Author
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). He began his financial publishing career in 1997 and has covered financial markets form Baltimore, Paris, London and, beginning in 2005 Melbourne. He’s the editor of The Daily Reckoning Australia and the Publisher of Port Phillip Publishing.
Comment by Jonathan on 30 August 2007:
Is silver worth buying?
Comment by Sarah Miller on 30 August 2007:
I think that a discussion of gold shares versus gold bullion ought to include an evaluation of brokerage houses and the risk that they may go bust.
Comment by Bullion Coins Buff on 6 February 2008:
May go bust?...why do you think that?
Comment by Sal Emmanuel on 9 March 2008:
A gold bar sells at twice the price of gold. How does one get a decent price when buying an ounce at a time and from where?
Cheers
Comment by Eddie on 11 March 2008:
Ebay is a good place. Kruggerands sell just over spot and on a good day right at I've even gotten some just below, or search scrap gold I've bought over the last 4 years gold at or just below spot in the form of scrap jewelry just remember 14k is 58.5% pure, 10k is 41%. Daily spot/31 X grams of scrap X % gold = price to pay.
121 grams of 14kt gold $960 todays spot 960/31 x 121 x .585 = $2192 your getting 2.283 oz pure gold at spot. Bid early mornings 2-3 am monday-thursday for best deals. If buying scrap a $20 acid test kit is mandatory also bid only from people with 98-100% feedback. Too much trouble, try http://www.apmex.com or other similar websites specializing in selling precious metals, kruggerands sell at 20-30 over spot.
Comment by Leona Livingston on 10 November 2010:
I am considering buying shares for the first time and everyone is screaming invest in Gold but where do I go and how do I start I don't have a gr8 deal to invest but would like to have something for the future. I have been told Gold is one of the most secure ways of investing instead of buying houses for example can u offer any advice.
Comment by Lachlan on 10 November 2010:
From top....."Is silver worth buying?"
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ahaha ha ah
Hi to all the regulars...oops, gotta go again.
Comment by Steve on 10 November 2010:
Steven was happy to see the ANZ put rates up above the RBA
hahaha
Comment by Biker on 10 November 2010:
Steven's parents were dismayed because the likelihood of their nestling ever fluttering off the (local ANZ) branch to independence is reduced. They're tired of his usual response "Whatsever!" when they raise the topic of his reaching his thirties still-at-home, as they approach retirement. HoHoHo...
Comment by Ned S on 10 November 2010:
I'll be doing my bit to put a floor under the market using cash once I like the risk and ROI. Just saying so no other punter can say they weren't warned fair 'n square ...
Comment by Biker on 10 November 2010:
I imagine there will be a rush to construct more homes, now that rates are rising, Ned. There will soon be an oversupply, as a result. The market will be flooded with new homes and prices will fall over 40%.
Dismayed parents will be beyond consolation, as their highly intelligent, helpful, grateful children leave them to take up half-price homes by the sea.
And hunters like me will train our artillery on flocks of migrating porkers flying north for the winter. Bacon for all!~ Beer for the workers... .
Comment by Ned S on 10 November 2010:
From what I can see Biker, lots of the world's migration seems to be from North to South these days - Unless they are birdbrains - But with porkers apparently being regarded as comparatively smart?
Comment by Biker on 10 November 2010:
It's an oblique reference to Steven's continual reminder that buyers are much better off in the USA, Ned. If pigs are gonna fly, my bet is that they'll head north, like Steve.
Comment by Ned S on 11 November 2010:
I suspect I'll stay south of the equator for the next 30 or 40 summers and winters Biker - Apart from an occasional hol maybe? And then almost certainly permanently!
Comment by Biker on 11 November 2010:
Hoping our Ozbuck maintains altitude, Ned. We're off up north July '11. Figured I might ship a bike to Alaska. Missus won't look at a cruise, so I figure we'll ferry across from northern VI.
Still looking at Vietnam through China, but that's probably 2012.
I attract cobwebs standing still... .