All Posts Tagged With: "ABS"

The main conclusion was that Australia would see rising export earnings on higher volumes but moderating commodity prices. In other words, the China boom will drive export volumes for the next five years. But you won’t see any more mammoth increases in commodity prices.

But in the universe in which your editor woke up this morning, none of that has yet happened. That makes this world, at least to these eyes, surreal. It’s not like the facts aren’t evident. In Australia, for example, the average house price remains so far out of reach for the new buyer that it’s laughable. Yet day after day, everyone in the press (and in polite society) pretends that things are going along quite normally.

Capital flows are good now. The sun is shining and the country is lucky. But if we’re right and the strong Aussie dollar is mostly a function of the U.S. dollar carry trade, capital flows can reverse just as quickly. Currency traders probably love this because of the volatility. But the question is: how risky is it for Australia’s economy to source so much of its borrowing needs overseas?

The upside of a severe and painful depression is that the much needed adjust in the economy would finally happen. The flow of credit to productive enterprise and real risk-taking (value creating) activities could resume.