One step forward, three steps back. That’s what the trading action looks like in the markets now. For every big one day advance of 1% to 5% or more, you’re going to get a corresponding sell off equal or greater to that. It’s not normal to see these kinds of one-day moves. But these aren’t normal times. We’re back on the edge of a credit abyss. Just when investors were convinced that the Gordon Brownification of the world’s banking sector had put the credit crisis behind us, we have more bad news.
October 16th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 3 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "australia"
Lehman CDS Auction Hammers Australian Resource Stocks
Finally, Australia gets its own $700 billion plan. Kevin Rudd’s government moved yesterday to slap a Federal guarantee on all deposits with banks, credit unions, and building societies. The $700 billion guarantee includes Australian subsidiaries of foreign owned banks. The government wants people to understand their money is safe in the banks. That’s why that last bit is in there. It’s designed to keep foreign holders of Aussie dollars from engaging in a run on the dollar and bringing their money home.
October 13th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
Australian Resource Shares, What’s Next?
IMF director Dominique Strauss-Kahn tried to kick-start stalled G7 negotiations in Washington this weekend by reminding everyone what was at stake. “Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown,” he said. It doesn’t get much more direct than that. The truth is, governments are trying to do the impossible. They are trying to make bad loans turn good.
October 12th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
Nationalised Banking System Will Come from Global Market Rout
The situation in the financial markets has not improved over night. In fact, the crisis seems to be accelerating. But toward what? In the share market, we had a look back on the 2003 low on the ASX. On March 12, 2003 the index closed at 2,673. If the rally that began the next day and ended in October of last year was really just a multi-year rally in the midst of a secular bear market, you have to ask whether the 2003 low will be tested.
October 10th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 7 comments | Continued
CRB Commodities Index Has Largest Decline in 50 Years
While the RBA rate cut is good news for the Aussie share market, the utter collapse in global commodity prices is not. This week the CRB commodities index fell the most in over 50 years—the most ever in such a short period. What is going on and where will commodity prices go from here? Three factors have contributed to the huge reversal in resource prices. First is the global rush to cash. Investors have voluntarily liquidated positions they’ve held for years in order to be in cash.
October 8th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 3 comments | Continued
RBA Rate Cut Does Little to Unlock Credit Market
“Rally to me,” said Glenn Stevens. And investors did. The RBA rate cut WAS a full percentage point as we speculated yesterday. And it certainly did make a splash. Economists loved it. The critics praised it. And investors “huzzahed” the ASX 200 up nearly two percent on a day when the rest of the globe quaked in fear. What has changed? The bank has shifted from being worried about inflation to being worried about recession. A credit crunch?
October 8th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Future Fund ‘Borrowing’ Program Amounts to Theft
All attempts to reflate the system are failing. Leverage is collapsing. Next on the docket is a series of interest rate cuts by Central Banks. They RBA will probably lead off that global parade today at 2:30pm in Sydney. How big will the cut be? It will be 50 basis points for sure. But if the RBA really wants to make a splash-and give the banks room to pass on the reduction to borrowers-it will be a full percentage point.
October 7th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 7 comments | Continued
Australian Recession in the Works? Ask the Sharemarket
All along it’s been assumed the fall in Australian shares is related to the credit crisis. But what if the stock market is actually forecasting an Australian recession? The stock market is a leading indicator. Shares lead the economy. So if shares are heading down, is the market telling us the Australian economy will soon follow into recession? It might seem counter-intuitive. After all, the country just racked up its highest trade surplus in 11 years last month.
October 3rd, 2008 | Dan Denning | 3 comments | Continued
Australia’s Response to the U.S. Bailout Plan
Normally, bank robberies work the other way. An armed and masked gang walks into the bank, fires a few shotgun blasts, tells everyone to get on the floor, and asks the clerks to fill up canvas bags with the fabulous moolah. It’s simple. That is not the way it works in modern central banking, though. Today, it’s as if Hank Paulson is pointing his “big bazooka” bailout plan at Wall Street and demanding it opens up its wallet so he can fill it with other people’s money.
September 26th, 2008 | Dan Denning | 7 comments | Continued
All Ordinaries Reach 52 Week Low
It’s pretty bad out there. Before he left to have his Visa renewed in New Zealand, our technical analyst Gabriel told us to watch 5,050 on the All Ordinaries. We’re watching. The All Ords opened up and promptly fell two percent to 5,105. It’s a new 52-week low. What about that data yesterday on the housing market and retail sales? Retail sales rose by 0.7% in May. Apparently that was stronger than analysts expected. Should it surprise anyone?
July 3rd, 2008 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued