RBA assistant governor Philip Lowe said in a speech in Sydney yesterday that constraints on home building are restricting the supply of homes in Australia. The shortage is one factor keeping prices up. Nothing was said about the lending boom.
March 11th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 42 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "Australian Bureau of Statistics"
Statistical Models Can’t Predict the Future
But we do know that financial markets are getting more volatile in recent years, not less. Is it globalization? Is it the digitalization of trading data and continuous, algorithmic trading models? Does the pursuit of an informational advantage (or the belief that one is possible) drive people to trade more?
March 2nd, 2010 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued
Credit Default Swap: Buying Insurance Against Default in Your Bonds
While Australians march down the path of a national house price obsession/mania, the world’s bond traders are firing warning shots. Bloomberg reports that, “Credit default swap (CDS) protection buying against sovereign debt default has spiked to five times the level of similar protection bought for corporate bonds, as the potential for a wave of sovereign debt defaults intensifies.”
January 28th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
Are Aussie House Prices in a Bubble?
First off, house prices are still rising in Australia, but for the second month in a row sales are falling. Here in Melbourne, the average house price is now $510,000 according to the RP Data Index. Melbourne prices are up 15% since January. Granted, that’s not quite as good as the stock market this year. The All Ords is up nearly 30% year to date. But it’s not bad for houses is it?
December 1st, 2009 | Dan Denning | 101 comments | Continued
Dollar Rally the Sort of Thing that Will Lead to Correction in Gold Price
House prices were up 6.2% in the third quarter over the same time last year, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. House prices in the capital cities are surging. Stocks are surging. Gold and oil are surging.
November 17th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
Biggest Factor Affecting Consumer Price Inflation is Growth in Bank Credit
Much will be revealed this week in the Aussie market, although a lot will probably remain obscure too. Producer price data for the September quarter comes out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Inflation anyone? Maybe not in wages. But certainly in raw materials (energy).
October 26th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
Total Meltdown of the Aussie Housing Market
Next Wednesday will see the release of the national accounts for June. Those figures will probably show the economy being less bad than previously expected. That might lead to the end of the “emergency setting” of the RBA cash rate at 3%, which will precipitate the decline and fall…
August 28th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 93 comments | Continued
Reserve Bank of Australia Will Meet to Determine the Price of Money
This denial of reality should be interesting to watch. When a credit bubble deflates and an economy breaks its addiction to reckless debt, the sensible thing to do (since you’re repairing your balance sheet) is dial things back a bit. Save. Cut back on the gadgets. Eat more staples. Wear a sack cloth.
But if you still believe that you can get something for nothing-well then yes-you’d continue to borrow and spend like a madman.
July 6th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 9 comments | Continued
Australia Might Avoid the Technical Definition of Recession
You’ll recall that the Aussie economy did contract by half of one percentage point in the fourth quarter. That was pretty mild compared to the 6.2% contraction in the U.S. But if the trade-supported Q1 GDP figures can eke out a gain (”positive growth”), well then Australia will join the odd couple of Poland and South Korea…
June 3rd, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
Gold Sales Cost Europe’s Central Banks Billions
And gold? Well you know all about that. Yesterday’s Financial Times had three stories in a row on gold. The first was, “Beijing Bets on Bullion” and showed that even though China’s gold reserves have doubled since 2003, the country still only has 1.6% of its total foreign reserves in gold. The world average is 10.5%.
May 8th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued