All Posts Tagged With: "bull market"

Of course, we don’t know any more than any other human being knows. But we’ve been watching Mr. Market for a long time. And we’ve come to the conclusion that he’s an SOB.

I’m a commodity trader…but that doesn’t mean I always expect commodity prices to go UP. In fact, a lot of times you’ve got to bet AGAINST commodities…

The week began with your editor wondering how the bond market would choke down another $81 billion in U.S. Treasury debt. On Monday, it swallowed $40 billion in three-year notes with gusto, and even belched in satisfaction. Demand, analysts said, hadn’t been that strong since 1990-when the bond vigilantes used the bond market as a weapon to discipline government spending.

Is it down 0.8% for the year (since January) or in the last twelve months? Or is the average super fund down 0.8% from its all-time high? The average super fund fell 21% from its heights to its lows during the GFC. But the Aussie market has rallied 55% this year.

So does this mean super has done well? Average? Above average?

Well, we’re still not there. But an analyst from Morgan Stanley tells us that markets tend to do better than that. The typical bounce is about 70%, says he.

Roach was what I call a realist, but he was more commonly labelled a bear, a pessimist, and a crank. When the market was soaring to new highs, Roach spoke about his professional ostracism…

For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued, on a cyclically adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.

How much more will these people have to pay? Between 5 and 10 times what they’re paying now. Almost all these homeowners are underwater. They bought at the bubbliest period.