People tend to overestimate what they think they know and underestimate what they don’t know. It’s best to be modest, work hard, and recognise that sometimes what you get in life is neither what you expect nor what you deserve. But let’s talk about markets and cycles first today before we get on the crazy train. And since yesterday was all about words (even though words can change worlds), let’s look at some pictures.
August 27th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 27 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "bullish"
Long-term Unemployment a Structural Shift in Nature of American Economy
…did you notice that nearly 45% of America’s 15 million unemployed have been out of a job for over six months?
April 8th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 0 comments | Continued
What Happens to Market and Economy When Boomers Begin Consuming their Retirement Incomes?
The burden of today’s Daily Reckoning is to figure out what’s going to happen when Australia’s millions of baby boomers retire. From the looks of it, the stock market will crash, government finances will be stressed, and the economy is going to slow. None of that sounds very promising.
February 2nd, 2010 | Dan Denning | 27 comments | Continued
America and its Intellectual and Political Elite Are Too Busy to Stop and Think
They are thinkers. They are always thinking about what to do. But they cannot afford to think radically…about why they should do anything at all.
January 12th, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 4 comments | Continued
A Sovereign Debt Crisis Bullish for U.S. Dollar and Bearish for Gold
In fact you don’t have to imagine it all. Or be insane. Bloomberg reports that, “Dollar Rises as Stocks, Commodities Fall in Flight From Risk.”
February gold futures fell below $1,100, down 2.5%. The Dow Jones Industrials fell 1.27%. The S&P 500 shed just over 1%. And the U.S. dollar rallied against all 16 currencies in the dollar index. What gives?
December 18th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 0 comments | Continued
Michael Pascoe and the Snarky Disinformation About Gold
Speaking of value, let us now return to the question of element number 79 on the periodic table. The snarky article we mentioned at the top is this one from Michael Pascoe at the age, titled “There’s more gold where that came from.”
In the article Pascoe takes on the issue of “peak gold.” But how well has he done in accurately stating the argument for gold?
December 16th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 28 comments | Continued
Copenhagen Climate Talks Possibly Sent the Market Higher
The S&P 500 hit a 14-month high overnight. The conventional wisdom is that two news events are responsible. This is probably wrong. But let’s look at both events anyway and see what happened.
The first is that Abu Dhabi extended a $10 billion in financing to debt-distressed Dubai. Hossanah! Remember, Dubai is not Lehman. It’s Bear Stearns.
December 15th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
China and its Trade
In the early 19th century, traders from Britain and America bought porcelain (china), silk and tea. Trouble was, they could find nothing to sell in exchange.
November 23rd, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
A Trader’s Market or an Investor’s Market?
Is it a fragile little market after all? You can’t really tell by appearances. For example, the world’s largest bond insurer (MBIA) fell 27% in New York trading. It reported a $727.8 million loss in insured credit derivatives. Yes…those credit landmines are still out there.
But the proper question – if you’re sitting on the fence about this move – is how broad the rally is.
November 11th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
More Money in Cash Right Now Than Equity in U.S. Companies
Now, there is a very good reason investors are reducing their allocation to stocks. As we’ve said before, we think the equity premium – what people are willing to pay for stocks – is regressing to the mean. It was so high for so long because corporate cash flows in the second half of the last century benefitted so much from low interest rates and globalisation.
November 6th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 15 comments | Continued
Dollar Up, Gold Down
Here in the Far East, the dollar is a particularly curious entity. Once upon a time, the mighty greenback was the best show in town, the “must have” ticket for the rocking Asian economies.
October 29th, 2009 | Joel Bowman | 0 comments | Continued
Supply of Conventional Crude Oil is Very Close to its Peak
Yes, various governments are now promoting alternative sources of energy and over the following years, we expect this drive to intensify.
October 27th, 2009 | Puru Saxena | 4 comments | Continued
Bullish On Silver
Well, maybe not all buying is drying up, as silver market analyst, Ted Butler, reports that in the last 10 months, “some 150 million ounces of silver can easily be documented to have been bought by investors.
October 6th, 2009 | Mogambo Guru | 2 comments | Continued
Underlying Demand During a Housing Shortage
That is clever to suggest that when rates rise people will have to find another way to say that houses are affordable. But we reckon when rates rise, as they eventually must, a lot of new home buyers will find out that access to cheap credit does not make a house affordable. It just makes the amount of debt you owe to the bank a lot larger.
September 30th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 41 comments | Continued
Jim Grant Declares Boom is Nigh
What is remarkable about the Grant conversion is that his vision gives off so little heat and light. His WSJ article shillyshallies around; rehearses the history of previous recessions…
September 28th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
