I’m a commodity trader…but that doesn’t mean I always expect commodity prices to go UP. In fact, a lot of times you’ve got to bet AGAINST commodities…
November 19th, 2009 | Alan Knuckman | 2 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "commodity"
$2,000 Gold Prediction
The weekend edition of the Australian Financial Review has gold on the cover, incidentally. You can see a picture of it a few paragraphs down. Underneath the giant golden letters it reads, “Why you shouldn’t laugh about gold hitting $US2000 an oz.” But if anyone’s laughing, it’s a nervous laughter.
November 16th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 8 comments | Continued
Gold and its Poorly Understood Historic Role in the Financial System
The burden of today’s Daily Reckoning , then, is to remind these nattering nabobs of negativism that gold is not anyone else’s debt. It is not anyone else’s liability. It cannot be created with a few keystrokes. And for thousands of years, millions of people from all walks of life have been happy to use it as money because of its unique features…
September 15th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 15 comments | Continued
Gorgon LNG Deal with China a Really Big Deal
Well just a day after highlighting the size and scope of the Gorgon LNG project in Western Australia, we have news that it really is a big deal. It is so big, in fact, that Martin Ferguson, the Federal Minister for Energy and Resources, said Australia is emerging as an “energy superpower.”
Shazzam!
August 19th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
Buying and Holding a Bad Strategy if Bank Earnings Remain Unpredictable
If we’re right, households have just begun reducing their debt loads. It will take years for the leverage in the system to be wound down. See Bill’s comments about that below. If you’re buying bank stocks you’re assuming credit and debt growth will resume once this recession is over. That’s a big assumption. And probably stupid.
August 12th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Is Gold Money?
However, the question I find most interesting is whether gold is a real asset. One of the problems of investment is that there are two variables, reality and liquidity. Land or property are relatively illiquid, but are also real, in that they have a use which does not depend on their value in exchange. Gold is highly liquid, indeed it is more liquid than paper money.
March 12th, 2009 | William Rees-Mogg | 7 comments | Continued
Gold Ratios: Bearish for Gold Prices, Bullish for Gold Shares
It is obvious that through this crisis, despite some turbulence, gold prices have held up better than just about any other asset, commodity or currency (other than dollars and yen) we may imagine. From the point of view of a gold miner, this is a very good thing. Even better is that the price of oil, a significant cost input for miners, has fallen a lot relative to gold. This is bullish for margins…
February 4th, 2009 | Ed Bugos | 1 comment | Continued
The Swift and Violent Rise of Oil
If you want to know why oil prices could double this year, or how $52 trillion in total global debt will utterly suffocate central bank attempts to resuscitate bank lending, or Ben Bernanke’s secret plan to turn trillions of dollars worth of toxic assets into shareholder equity, read on! Two topics in one day! Why are oil prices lying? How much air is left in the credit bubble?…
January 20th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 10 comments | Continued
A Worst-Case Commodity Scenario
Mind you, even in such a bearish argument for commodities, you might find an exception in gold producers, although not the explorers. The junior gold explorers are fast, like everyone else, running out of finance. Our forecast? Gold production is going to fall this year at the same time gold prices rise. We’ve focused so much on the demand side for gold as an inflation-hedge that it’s easy to forget gold is a mining business. You have to find it and dig it up. It is hard to increase the mine supply of gold…
January 15th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 7 comments | Continued
Commodity Stock Prices Meltdown
The prices of commodities are likely to crack short term, but this will be just a tease. In the next decades, the prices of all future raw materials will be priced as just what they are: irreplaceable. Oil, for example, will never again be priced on the marginal cost of pumping a marginal barrel from some giant Saudi oil field, as has been the practice for most of the last 100 years of oil production.
September 10th, 2008 | Chris Mayer | 0 comments | Continued