Know what that means? It means the "Age of Thrift" is here...and that consumers really are cutting back - just like we said they would.

And it means that the consumer economy is not going to return to robust growth anytime soon. And it means, too, that people will find it hard to find jobs for a very long time.

Another thing it means is that housing prices are not likely to recover - not in our lifetimes. That was a once-a-century bubble and it has blown up.

Mortgage lenders say they expect the peak in foreclosures to come about a year from now. As for the bottom of price declines, you can expect that in 2013 or beyond. A housing bubble typically takes prices down for six years, says a study by professors Reinhart and Rogoff. But this was not a typical bubble; it was an extraordinary bubble. Seems logical that the correction will be extraordinarily deep and long too.

And it also means that this stock market rally is very vulnerable. The stock market and the economy seem to be reading different newspapers!

The Dow fell 14 points yesterday. It could begin a major drop any day. That's why our 'Crash Alert' flag is flying from our London headquarters.

Yesterday, we reported the curious fact that consumer spending as a percentage of the GDP had increased. But it only increased because the other parts of the GDP - notably business spending and investment - fell off even faster.

With output falling...sales falling...and investment (in new plant and equipment) falling even faster...who's going to hire new workers? Not many companies. And which companies are going to invest in young workers...who will have to be trained - sometimes over a period of many years - before they are really productive? Not many.

It's the "Lost Generation," says BusinessWeek. Unemployment nationwide is officially 9.8%. But for young people the rate is nearly twice that level - at 18%.

Their elders aren't doing so well either.

"Baby boomers working longer hours, for less," says a Financial Times headline. What do you expect? Their currency is going down in value. Their customers are disappearing. Their retirement savings disappeared with housing prices. They can't even borrow money anymore.

David Rosenberg:

"Now that lenders have started to respond to their record-high delinquency rates by rationing credit, a mad scramble for cash is occurring to replace the loans - food stamp usage is up 22% year-over- year, pawn shop business is up nearly 40%, and there is a tidal wave of applications for Social Security disability benefits that are not explained alone by workplace mishaps."

Boomers have no choice. They need money. So they work harder, and longer. And they get paid less. Why? Because prices are falling. Even the price of labor. It's a deflationary world.

Meanwhile, The New York Times reports, "China consolidates its lead in global trade."

This headline is a little like the announcement that consumer spending is a bigger part of the economy. It might lead you to think that global trade is growing - or, at least that the Chinese part of global trade is growing. Not at all! Global trade is still shrinking. Chinese exports too. It's just that China's part of the global marketplace is increasing...because America and Europe are losing market share. China is gaining market share because it competes on price. And price competition is what is driving this market.

No discount? No sale!

Power and wealth are shifting east. No doubt about it. The Chinese took over the Hummer this week. And they are even building a 'big plane' - the C919 - to compete against Boeing and Airbus.

Is there any business they can't compete in? We don't know...but we're counting on them to stay out of financial publishing at least until we retire!

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• If Americans Do Not Return to Work, There Is No Recovery
• Bear Markets Do Not End With Stocks Still Trading at Nearly 20 Times Earnings
• Stock Prices Down Signals Bears to Hold onto Cash, Treasuries and Gold
• Economy Has to Grow at 1% to Stay Even With Population Growth
• We Expect No Recovery from the Economy

Yesterday, it touched a new record - $1,050 - even as the dollar rose, oil slumped under $70 and stocks dipped very slightly.

Well, what do you expect? The United States added $1 trillion to its monetary base in the last year or so. The federal government is running a deficit of $1.7 trillion this year. And along comes Barack Obama with an idea to stimulate employment - spend more money! This time, Obama's plan is a kind of 'Cash for Workers' program...in which businesses get a tax credit for hiring new employees.

Gold investors must think the new program will be the straw they've been waiting for. Government has piled on bales of costly new initiatives on this poor camel's back. Still, he stands up straight.

So, is gold at $1000 a bargain...or a trap? Or both.

We begin by asking: where's the inflation? We don't see any inflation. What we do see is deflation.

Barclays Capital says gold could go to $1,500. We don't know where they got that number. It could go to $15,000 for all we know. Or it could go down, too.

Our guess is that it will go down enough scare the bejesus out of speculators. Then, it will soar.

But, hey, we're just guessing - along with everyone else.

Sooner or later gold is probably headed to the lunatic moon. We're sticking with the yellow metal. We don't want to miss that ride.

But when?

Ah...we're going to stick our necks out and say "eventually." We're sure we're right about this. Just don't ask us for more precision; we have none. And what bothers us is that between eventually and now there could be a lot of time and a lot of trouble. And one trouble that could come up pretty fast is another crash in the stock market.

If the stock markets of the world take another dive...like they did last year...gold will probably go down with them. Not as much, but down nonetheless. So, if we were speculating...we'd probably be short gold and short stocks too. We'd bet against bonds too - even though we think they will probably go up in the short run. The smart, long term money - in both stocks and bonds - is probably on the short side.

Here at The Daily Reckoning, however, we never speculate - except in print. As to ideas about how the world works we have plenty. We speculate daily. As to gold, stocks and commodities, we prefer to hold onto our long-term positions.

What seems fairly sure to us is that this recovery is a fraud. It's a mountebank and a flimflam.

And now approaches a moment of truth - earnings announcements. Stock market investors bid up shares on the theory that sales and profits would rise. Will they? We don't think so.

We think sales are going to be disappointing...and earnings will be even worse. If so, we'll see analysts begin to change their expectations...and announce that the results are "not as bad as expected."

If we get a few really bad announcements - with results much worse than expected - it could sink the rally. Then again, if we're surprised with exceptionally good reports...it could send the market in the other direction.

Good results will also cause us here at The Daily Reckoning to question our position. Maybe the economy is not sinking into a chronic depression, after all. Could we be wrong?

Ha ha...are you kidding, dear reader? Of course, we can be wrong. When we were younger we were uncertain about things. But now that we're older, we're not so sure.

Here is what we're pretty sure about:

1) The credit cycle has topped out.

Americans are saving - think of the poor boomers, 10 years older but not a penny richer than they were in 1999. Stocks have gone nowhere but down in real terms. Houses hit a high in 2006...now, they're off 30%...and still going down. Jobs? Forget it...there are already 15 million people who are unemployed and about 200,000 more every month. The job market is unlikely to recover for another 6-13 years - that is, after many of the boomers are retired! And if you are lucky enough to have a job, you're not likely to get a raise...not with so much spare capacity in the labor market.

Under those conditions, a consumer boom is very unlikely.

2) We know that a period of credit contraction is deflationary.

Prices go down as demand falls. Buyers disappear from the malls that once knew them, while the factories that produce stuff grow dusty and quiet.

But we know the feds hate falling prices. And we know they are taking extraordinary actions to get prices to go up. So far, their efforts have been a giant flop. Prices are falling in the United States at the fastest pace since the '50s.

Most of the feds' efforts have been directed towards keeping the bankers fat and happy...and getting themselves a bigger share of America's output. They took funds designed to relaunch the US economy, for example, and used them to buy themselves a big position in the auto industry, the financial industry and the insurance industry.

3) We know too, by the way they conducted themselves in those affairs, that the feds have become much more aggressive...throwing their weight around in the private sector as never before.

What we don't know is how this affects markets in the short term. So far, consumer prices are falling, but the stock market is enjoying a bounce. It is a real, new bull market? Or just a bear market bounce? It is probably a bear market bounce...but it has been going for long enough that we have to at least consider the idea that it is a genuine bull market. That's why the numbers from this quarter are important...they'll tell us if the companies themselves are expanding earnings fast enough to justify investors' optimism.

4) We know too that there is a whole lot of 'flation going on.

We are just unable to tell you what kind of 'flation it is. The monetary base is way up - it increased by $1 trillion in the last 12 months. But the money-in-circulation has barely budged. The feds give the banks overnight loans at practically zero interest. Then, the banks lend it back to the feds at nearly 4% more.

What happens to it then? Well, what do you think...it is wasted on typical federal government scams and humbugs.

So, relatively little of the money actually ends up in the consumer economy. And so, we can't tell you whether the 'flation will have a 'in' prefix or a 'de' prefix. They're just two letters. But they will make a whole alphabet of difference to the economy and to your investments.

5) Most important, we are dead sure that the people running America's financial policies are jackasses.

We say that with all due respect, which is probably not much. They have only one idea - and it is a bad one. They think economies are improved by more consumer spending. They don't seem to care why consumers occasionally cut back on their spending. All that matters to them is finding ways to get the consumer shopping again. So they try tax cuts and government spending...bailouts and boondoggles...zero interest lending and federal takeovers...cash for clunkers, cash for houses, cash for employees....

..trillions worth of claptrap and folderol. But what a nuisance! The fool consumer still won't shop!

But they're determined to keep trying. That's why we can be pretty sure that, eventually, they'll get inflation rates up. One way or another. And then, gold at $1000 will seem like an outrageous bargain.

Until next time,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Is Gold Going Up Because People Fear Inflation?
• Gold is More Like a Religion or a Political Position
• Feds’ Plan is to Reflate the Economy
• Markets Rise While the Economy Sinks
• The Economy is Getting Worse Not Better

One of the most interesting news items I've found was on the cover of The Financial Times, where I learned that a guy named Lahde "made tens of millions of dollars from betting against the financial and property sectors during [the] past two years", and he now wanted to thank "the low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA" who made it all possible for him to find enough suckers.

He noted that "These people who were often truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the aristocracy," he says, "only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America."

This goes along with an article in the St. Petersburg Times about Tom James, chairman and chief executive of Raymond, James Financial, who had "some tough words for the wizards of Washington, DC who oversaw the $700-billion bailout package".

He reports, "The Brave And Wonderful Mogambo (BAWM) was right all along! Those government weenies are the biggest freaking morons you ever saw, and we as a country should be ashamed of ourselves for having elected such corrupt, half-witted, utter failures and congenital idiots!"

As you have probably guessed by now, he did not say those exact words, but he implied every syllable when he said, "Legislators were almost embarrassingly ignorant of how the financial system works", which I figure explains how they don't understand the linkage between their own Bad, Bad Performance (BBP) as legislators and the subsequent Bad, Bad Performance (BBP) of the economy, and he says that only 3 of 16 legislators that he talked to actually understood what was going on in the "credit crisis." Less than 20%! Hahaha! We're doomed!

Well, maybe these Congressional losers will understand the unfolding economic slowdown, as evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of the cost to transport stuff by cargo ship, and which has fallen precipitously, which seems very important to me, and to Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Riccardo, too, who is also alarmed by this like - as I previously said - me.

It's actually beyond scary, in a terrifying kind of "ain't nobody buying nothing in a consumer economy" kind of way, which means that without the consumer buying stuff as his or her contribution to the famous statistic of "the consumer is 70% of the economy", we are, in case you ain't heard, freaking doomed!

Well, maybe not all buying is drying up, as silver market analyst, Ted Butler, reports that in the last 10 months, "some 150 million ounces of silver can easily be documented to have been bought by investors. Undocumented purchases would add tens of millions more ounces."

In fact, when you add it all up, "Investment demand for silver this year is running at a full 25% of world mine production and over 20% of total production (including recycling). This is a remarkable historical turnabout."

Thus, it is easy to see why Mr. Butler is "bullish beyond belief for silver", since this kind of demand means that "In silver, the documented 150 million ounces bought in the first ten months of this year is equal to 15% of all the silver bullion equivalent thought to exist!" Wow!

More than one-seventh of all the silver bullion "thought to exist" in the whole world was suddenly bought up in less than a year, and yet the price of silver has been pounded down to less than 10 bucks an ounce? No wonder I am so bullish on silver!

He also notes that the gold/silver ratio is at more than 80, which is "one of the biggest differences in history."

And not only that, but since there are 4 to 5 billion ounces of gold in the world versus only 1 billion ounces of silver, that means that "the total dollar value of all the gold in the world is worth 300 to 400 times more than all the silver in the world (80 times 4 or 5)".

Talk about undervalued! Hey! This investing stuff is easy! Whee!

Until next time,

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Silver and its Large Short Position
• Gold and Silver!
• Gold and Silver Demand Unprecedented
• Price of Silver Climbing to All Time High of US $1,012
• Silver Stats That Will Make You Salivate

"US consumers are cutting back, and where they are not cutting back, they are scaling down. This new cycle is all about 'getting small' and it is deflationary. For yet another in the litany of signs pointing in the direction of social change towards thrift, have a look at what is transpiring at the upper echelons of the income strata - Now Even Millionaires See the Benefits of Budgeting on page B5 of the Saturday NYT is a must read.

"Not only are the rich trading down, but the article quotes a high net worth financial advisor who said 'many of our clients are very happy to be sitting on bond portfolios and cash reserves.' And see the article on page 2 of the Sunday NYT - Beauty Products Lose Some Appeal During Recession. According to the NPD Research Group, total sales of department store beauty products are down 7% from year-ago levels. Women are apparently opting for the 'natural look' - "some people are selectively replacing higher-priced items with cheaper products from drug stores and discount stores."

Right on, David!

And here's the CEO of Pepsico:

"The age of thrift is here."

Even in Japan, after 20 years of coughing and sneezing, people have caught "the thrift bug," says The New York Times.

What's a consumer economy need in order to keep growing?

Uh...it's needs consumer spending.

What do consumers need in order to boost spending?

Uh...they need more money!

Oh, there's where it all starts to come apart, doesn't it? Where do they get more money? They either earn it...or they borrow it. And right now, they can't earn it - not with 12% unemployment in California! Workers have no bargaining power. And they can't borrow it either. The banks won't lend - not with the value of their collateral still falling.

Word comes this morning that mortgage delinquencies have hit a new record. And here's a headline warning of worse to come:

"$30 billion home loan time bomb set for 2010."

Even solvent homeowners who aren't forced into foreclosure still find it beneficial to walk away from their houses. "Strategic defaults,' says The Los Angeles Times, are becoming a problem for mortgage lenders.

We didn't read the article. Instead, we began to think. What if we owned a house worth $200,000 with a $300,000 mortgage? What would be the smart thing to do? Easy...walk away from it. Then, buy it back at auction!

Desperate consumers do what they have to do. Canny consumers do what's smart. And now it's smart to walk away from any debt that you don't actually have to pay.

As for adding more debt, you can gage yourself from the comments above, consumers are not eager to borrow. They've seen what happens when they go too far into debt. They're older and wiser than they were in the bubble years. It's been 10 years since the tech bubble exploded. Since then, stock market investors have made nothing - zero. And now houses are falling too.

So, if a fellow needs money for his retirement, where is he going to get it? Not from his house. Not from a pay raise. And not from his stocks either. He needs savings. He needs real money.

Americans aren't so stupid after all. When they need to stop spending, they stop spending. When they need to save, they save. Too bad about the economy.

Yes, what is good for individuals seems to be bad for the economy. When people save instead of spend, the consumer economy stalls. And then economists think there is something wrong. They think an economy needs to expand constantly. And so, they try to find 'solutions' to the 'problem.'

Actually, there is no problem at all. It's just the way capitalism works. There are booms. And there are busts. Periods of growth...and periods when the mistakes made during the boom are corrected. There's a time for every purpose under heaven. That's the way it works. The economy breathes in and it breathes out.

And there's always some dumb economist trying to smother it with a pillow!

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Consumer Economy Not Going to Return to Robust Growth Anytime Soon
• Two Ways to Deleverage an Economy
• The Percentage of the U.S. Economy Devoted to Consumer Spending Went Up and Up
• America’s Consumer Economy Needs to Consume Less
• The Interest Only Mortgage Option

Household credit is shrinking...
Profits are shrinking...
Employment is shrinking...
Housing values are shrinking...
The wage base is shrinking...

But the recession is over!

Whoa...how is that possible?

This weekend's news brought no surprises. For example, the housing picture is still depressing - unless you're a buyer.

There's "no bottom in sight" to Florida condo prices, says Barron's. And Reuters warns that option ARM mortgages "are about to explode." At least, that's what the attorney general of the sovereign state of Iowa says. The option gives the homeowner the right to pay only the interest (or in some cases less than the interest) for the first few years. They're sometimes called IO mortgages (interest only). And now these mortgages, written at the height of the bubble, are beginning to reset to more normal terms. According to Reuters, 128,000 people in Arizona alone will face reset IO mortgages next year.

How much more will these people have to pay? Between 5 and 10 times what they're paying now. Almost all these homeowners are underwater. They bought at the bubbliest period. How many of them can afford a 400% increase in their mortgage payments? How many of them will be willing to pay?

Not many. That's why a new wave of foreclosures is coming. And that's why house prices are likely to keep going down; the supply is going to increase, while the demand (willing and able buyers) will probably stay steady.

Meanwhile, the California jobless rate has risen above 12%.

But let's go back to the first item - shrinking consumer credit. This is the key thing. The expansion of the US economy - broadly speaking - from 1945 to 2007 depended on consumers' willingness to go further into debt. Wages rose during the first half of that period - supporting consumption. But as the great boom continued, more and more of it was based on credit, not on wages. At the end, it was almost all credit expansion. Consumers weren't earning more money...nevertheless, they kept spending more and more money. How did they do it? By borrowing.

Without this borrowing the economy would not have grown.

And now what's happening? Well, consumers aren't borrowing anymore. Consumer credit is going the other way, shrinking rather than growing.

The feds are trying to counteract this major trend. This year, they're borrowing $1.7 trillion. Consumers won't borrow; no problem, the feds will borrow for them!

So far, the feds have put at risk about $13 trillion in order to counteract the downturn. This is about equal to the amount that Americans had lost in the crash. But while the crash wiped out $13 trillion in housing and stock market wealth, the feds have no obvious way to put the money back. Banks were easy to reflate. Bankers and federales are tight with each other; they're happy to share out the taxpayers' money. But getting money to the consumer is a different matter. The banks don't lend and the consumers don't borrow.

Of the $13 trillion the feds have put at risk...very little has actually made its way to the consumer economy. Result: no new boom in consumer spending...no new boom in hiring...no new boom in production or profits.

Pity the poor investors who are counting on a bull market. Profits aren't increasing. So the increase in stock prices is based on an increase in the multiple. As stocks rise, investors pay more for each dollar of earnings. Unless there is a big boom coming, this will turn out to be a mistake.

The Dow rose 36 points on Friday. Gold ended the day at $1008. And the dollar keeps sinking; on Friday, American visitors to Europe found that it cost $.147 per euro.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• The More Money in a Financial System the Less Each Unit is Worth
• Zero Percent Interest Rate Didn’t Work for the Japanese
• Gold is More Like a Religion or a Political Position
• A National Mortgage Bubble
• New Default Wave Hits Mortgage Industry

First, we hope you bought gold many years ago. That would make it simpler. Then, we could say: hold! Gold is an antidote to paper. There is so much paper...and so much more apparently on the way...that the gold play seems like a winner. It's a bet that the money system that has been around since August '71 is going to fall apart.

We still think that is a good bet. Our Trade of the Decade remains. Buy gold on dips; sell stocks on rallies. We've done well with this trade; we'll stick with it a bit longer.

But what if you don't own gold? The yellow stuff is now over $1,000. In fact, it looks like $1,000 could be a new support level for the metal - with most of the support coming from the Chinese. China has relatively little gold in its central bank. It must see what we see - the weakness of the dollar and of the dollar-reserve monetary system. It must worry about the value of the $2 trillion or so it has in dollars. It must also wonder how it is going to run its economy if the dollar falls apart. American buyers were its consumers of first and last resort. To whom will China sell if its most important customers' money becomes worthless?

Recent comments by a group of Chinese officials make it clear that they are thinking of these things...and that they have decided to add more gold to their reserves. In fact, all the central banks have become net buyers. No more selling off gold reserves. That is seen as a mug's game - which it is. Replacing gold with paper? C'mon, what were they thinking?

So China is a buyer. Trouble is, it has to be a discreet buyer. It has too much money. It could cause the price to skyrocket overnight. Then, it would be paying too much. So, perhaps it does what we do - China buys on dips! For example, the order may have gone out: buy gold whenever the price goes below $1,000.

We don't know what their buying strategy is...but the Chinese are probably going to be big buyers over the next few years.

Should you buy along with the Chinese? Should you compete with the Chinese for each ounce of gold that comes on the market?

Good question. Unfortunately, we don't have a good answer. So let's try a different question: Is gold going up or down?

The answer to that is simpler: gold is going up...then down...then up again. It is going up because the feds - including the feds in China - are encouraging speculation. Then, it is going down when the next phase of the bear market reasserts itself and the speculators run for cover. Then, it is going back up...much farther and faster...when the Fed becomes desperate and finally throw caution - and dollars - to the wind. We're confident this last stage will arrive. Our hesitation is that it will take much longer than we expect. Gold may rise in a deflation...but it soars in a period of inflation. That period could be a long way off.

The feds can't revive the consumer economy. Despite all you read...the consumer economy is probably going to limp along for many years. No boom in consumer spending = no inflation.

"US retail sales surge as economy strengthens," announces a Reuters' headline. Don't believe it. Between the seasonal adjustments and the feds' giveaways the retail sales numbers are meaningless. The real story is that there is little - or no - real organic improvement in the economy. The largest banks that get federal bailout money, for example, have actually reduced their lending for 6 months in a row.

But the feds can stimulate speculation. The dollar has become the 'carry trade' currency. The big players borrow in dollars...and use the money to speculate - against the dollar! They buy gold. They buy Brazilian bonds. They buy aluminum futures. They buy stocks.

The Dow rose 108 points yesterday. Oil rose over $72. Almost all commodities are up - except natural gas.

The post-crash party seems to be going well. It may continue. But the underlying problems of the real economy have not been corrected. They will rise up like zombies in a bad horror movie and bring the party to a close. Absent support from the Chinese, the price of gold will probably go down along with everything else. Which brings us back to the question we dodged.

"Dad, I made $2,000 just in the last couple of days...on that gold play I got in. But I'm nervous...should I sell it?"

Jules has graduated from college. He's investing his meager savings, trying to put together a big enough stake so he can take a year off from work and concentrate on his career as a composer and performer.

"Jules...I don't know," began the answer. "But you're a young guy. You can afford to speculate. If it goes your way, you make money. If it goes against you, you learn something...and you have plenty of time to recover.

"It looks to us as though this party is going to continue for a while. If I were you...I'd stick with it a while longer."

Our advice to a man of 21 is not the same as our advice to a man of 60. The older man would get older advice:

"Gamble not thy whole wealth on the gold market," we would say.

The older man needs gold. But he needs it as insurance...as a reserve against catastrophe...as a form of savings. The Fed has been negligent and derelict. It is not protecting America's money and Americans' wealth. The average fellow has to do it himself. He has to have reserves of his own...reserves of real money - gold.

He should buy. He should hold. He should buy the dips. But he should not speculate on higher prices...nor risk his wealth gambling in the gold market. Most likely, after this speculative boomlet, the price of gold will go down. How much? How far? For how long? Of course, we don't know the answer to those questions.

We're not buying now. But we already have our position in gold. We will add more - on the next big dip.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• China is a Key Driving Force in the Gold Market
• Bankers Take Money From the Government and Use it to Speculate
• Gold Doesn’t Always Need Inflation to Rise
• Chinese Yuan Marches Towards World Domination
• India Beats China to Walk Away With 200 Tonnes of IMF Gold

What Jack sees - in his new book, The Great Prosperity of 2020, is a series of booms and busts that correspond to the way people think about themselves...what they want...and how they want to live.

This is what defines American capitalism, he believes. And then he connects these phases of American capitalism to development patterns and real estate trends. Since about the beginning of the 19th century, he sees three major forms of capitalism - the small-scale frontier capitalism which peaked out about the mid-1800s...followed by large- scale industrial development which reached its zenith, according to Jack, at the beginning of the 20th century...followed by the consumer society that we grew up with.

Each major trend rises and falls. Prices rise and fall with them. The first wave of development raised prices of frontier land, first in the Mississippi River basin...and then out on the prairies. In real terms, farmland in some part of the mid-west hit peaks in the speculative fever of the 1880s that have never been seen since. Then, the development of the next phase pushed up values in major industrial centers - particularly in Chicago - whose growth far surpassed the older cities such as New York and Philadelphia. There too, prices in inner city Rust Belt metropolises have never been higher. Then, came the Material Age...when the consumer was king. Every king wanted his own suburban castle...and his carriage, with horsepower provided by Chevrolet or Ford.

The bigger picture was that energy was cheap and US manufacturing was leading the world in the post-WWII era. Cheap energy seemed to make suburban life a sensible, affordable alternative to the city. In the suburbs you had the advantages of being close to a major city - with access to jobs, entertainment and education. You also had the advantages of country living - backyard swimming pools, gardens, lawns, fresh air, and space.

Movement to suburbia began in the '20s. By then, the first suburbs were being built north of Baltimore...connected to the downtown area by tramways and paved roads. The richest families began by buying summer places on the high ground of Guilford and Mount Washington. Then, as transportation improved...and the cities became more and more crowded with immigrants and factory workers...the rich lived year-round in their leafy refuges.

As the trend developed, the suburbs spread...and the middle classes joined the exodus. By the '80s, practically all that was left in the central cities were drug addicts and welfare recipients.

Meanwhile, in the early phase of the consumer trend, wages for ordinary working stiffs were going up rapidly. A guy could graduate from high school, get a decent job, and expect to earn more and more money. This gave him the wherewithal to buy more and more stuff. So buying stuff became a national pastime. "He who dies with the most stuff wins," was the basic rule of the game.

The first challenges to stuff culture came early, says Jack. The hippies and counter-culture movements of the '60s were basically a reaction to the excesses of consumerism and suburbanism. Then, prodded by the oil crisis, there was a counter-trend movement towards self- sufficiency and independence in the '70s. Those early attacks were beaten back by credit and bubble markets. It seemed crazy not to enjoy the benefits of stuff culture when it was at its apogee in the late 20th century.

But now the consumer economy has played itself out, says Jack. It is spent, wornout and passé. Here at The Daily Reckoning we described the Bubble Epoque - the final, blowout phase of the trend - day by day, during the 2001-2007 period. Now, we are describing the bust-up. The consumers are broke. The suburbs are démodé. The lust for stuff has given way to a lust for security, stability, and simplicity.

The shift from one major trend to another one is typically marked by depressions. The transition period requires retooling, re-pricing and often, relocating. The suburbs are unlikely to be a growth area in the next socio-economic trend. Instead, it is likely that suburban property hit its all-time high in 2005-2006. We will never see those prices again - ever. People will move. They will move to new areas.

The "season of depression," to use Jack's term, usually lasts 20-30 years. We are in one now. He puts the end of the depression - and the beginning of a new period of prosperity - at 2020.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Republican Candidate’s 17-Year-Old Daughter is Pregnant
• New York Will No Longer be Among World’s Five Largest Cities
• The World’s Largest Cities
• Maybe the “Cartoon” House Period is Over
• Investors Fear Rising Inflation

Several interesting things are likely to happen this summer.

1) Unemployment rates will go up.

2) Rising joblessness will increase rates of defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. Not just at the consumer level - but throughout the system...including banks, states, businesses, as well as households

3) The stock market will take a dive as earnings fall and investors realize that there will be no quick recovery

Oh...and one more thing: U.S. bonds could collapse. But watch out...here's where it gets tricky. Another swoon in the stock market could send investors running for the smelling salts in the bond market. A collapse of bond prices, on the other hand, could send them helter skelter into stocks.

Yesterday, the Dow rose 7 points. Oil held at $71. The dollar lost a little ground - to $1.39 per euro. And gold added 3 bucks.

It is impossible to predict what will happen - or when - in the markets. So let us turn our attention to the real economy. Here, we see the picture more clearly: We're in a depression. We write depression with a small 'd.' We're saving the big one for later.

Few economists or analysts will tell you we're in a depression. They're looking at "green shoots" and rising trendlines. They'd do better to read a little history. Such as the history of the Great Depression.

Martin Wolf in the Financial Times (reporting the results of a study by two American professors):

First, global industrial output tracks the decline in industrial output during the Great Depression horrifyingly closely. Within Europe, the decline in the industrial output of France and Italy has been worse than at this point in the 1930s, while that of the UK and Germany is much the same. The declines in the US and Canada are also close to those in the 1930s. But Japan's industrial collapse has been far worse than in the 1930s, despite a very recent recovery.

Second, the collapse in the volume of world trade has been far worse than during the first year of the Great Depression. Indeed, the decline in world trade in the first year is equal to that in the first two years of the Great Depression. This is not because of protection, but because of collapsing demand for manufactures.

Third, despite the recent bounce, the decline in world stock markets is far bigger than in the corresponding period of the Great Depression.

The two authors sum up starkly: "Globally we are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression... This is a Depression-sized event."

Yesterday, we proposed two sine qua non for a new boom. Either the feds revive the old economy - by getting people to borrow and spend more money. Or, the mistakes of the past must be corrected...whereupon new investment and growth can take place. While the free market is busy working on the latter, central banks and national governments all over the world are trying to stop it. They've got the voters and campaign contributors to answer to, none of whom wants to get what he deserves. Instead, they're hoping to revive the Bubble Epoque. Citizens are already up to their necks in debt; but the feds raise the water level!

This flood of fed liquidity seems to be raising boats and animal spirits among speculators. But it is doing nothing to revive the real economy.

"Consumer Costs Fall Most in Six Decades," reports Bloomberg. Europe is already in deflation. America is not far behind. We had a hard time following the Bloomberg report. It said consumer prices were 1.3% below those of 12 months ago. We don't believe that's true. What we think Bloomberg meant to say was that prices are increasing at the slowest pace in 6 decades...but, for the moment, inflation is still (barely) positive.

With prices falling, the last thing the feds are worrying about is inflation. Except that there isn't any. And they're going to worry a lot more over the summer, when the hot sun beats down on a lifeless economy and it becomes obvious that their revival efforts have failed.

Global commerce has fallen in line with the Great Depression. That means producers don't need to produce so much...and don't need so many people to produce it. Jobs are lost. And then the people who lose their jobs don't go out to restaurants and malls so much...so more jobs are lost.

These job losses take time to show up. And then they take time to "ripen." People tend to have a little something set aside for a rainy day - or at least, unemployment compensation. But after a few weeks of stormy weather, the reserves are exhausted. Then...they have to cut back much more.

USA Today asked people: "If you lost your job, how long could you afford to pay for your own health insurance?" More than 65% of respondents said they could only manage for 6 months or less.

In America "there hasn't been a shock like this since the de-
mobilization of millions of soldiers following WWII: something like 3 million unemployed people are going to fall out of the safety net in the third quarter. With their families, that's about 10 million people who will sink suddenly into deep poverty," says GEAB a private research service headquartered in Paris. The group anticipates a "Very Great Depression" coming to the United States.

More than three million jobs have been lost in the United States during the last five months. As these out-of-work cases ripen, there will be some rotten fruit falling to ground.

There are also the millions who are working fewer hours and earning less money. In fact, the number of hours worked per week has fallen to a record low.

Where do people without jobs, without incomes, without savings - and without benefits - shop? What money do they spend? How does a consumer economy launch a boom when consumers have less money to spend?

These questions have obvious answers and obvious implications: there ain't going to be any consumer spending boom in the U.S.A....not this summer...and probably not for many summers to come. Martin Wolf explains why:

"Robust private sector demand will return only once the balance sheets of over-indebted households, overborrowed businesses and undercapitalised financial sectors are repaired or when countries with high savings rates consume or invest more. None of this is likely to be quick. Indeed, it is far more likely to take years, given the extraordinary debt accumulations of the past decade. Over the past two quarters, for example, US households repaid just 3.1 per cent of their debt. Deleveraging is a lengthy process."

If we assume that debt levels need to go back to where they were before the Bubble Epoque...well, let's say to 200% of GDP just to make the math easy...that means 170% of GDP worth of debt needs to be paid off. That's $20 trillion, in round numbers - or about 40% of the total. At 6% per year, even if households kept paying off debt at the current rate it would still take nearly 7 years to get household debt down to pre-bubble levels.

Then, of course, there is the government debt - now expanding faster than ever. The United States has the biggest deficit - even as a percentage of GDP - of any serious country in the world. The U.S. deficit is 12% or 13% of GDP. Compare that to Russia at 2.6%...Spain at 6%...France at 5%...Brazil at 1.3%.... Even Argentina has a much smaller deficit than the US - only 3.6% of GDP.

(More on the pampas tomorrow....)

But don't worry about it. The 'Committee to Save the World, Part II' is on the case. Geithner, Bernanke and Summers are staying in the office throughout the hot months. They kept us out of trouble so far, didn't they?

So enjoy the beach!

The United States has entered the Third Stage of a great nation. The Political Stage.

In the late 20th century, power and money moved from the banks of the Monongahela to the banks of the Hudson. Now they're moving again - to the banks of the Potomac. Washington calls the shots.

"Obama Blueprints Deepen Federal Role in Markets," says a headline in yesterday's Washington Post.

Of course, this change didn't happen overnight. George W. Bush was a trailblazer - turning 'conservatives!' into big spending activists. And the business community - particularly the banks - saw it coming and got ready.

In 2001 the banking industry spent $5 million on lobbying in Washington. The total went up every year. By 2008, they were spending $20 million. Campaign contributions from bankers increased too...from only $4 million from the bankers' political action committees in 2000 to $8 million last year.

Judging from the bailouts given to Wall Street last year, this investment paid off handsomely.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Normally Small Businesses Lead the Economy Out of Recession
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• No Evidence of Recovery as Unemployment Getting Worse
• The More Money in a Financial System the Less Each Unit is Worth
• If Americans Do Not Return to Work, There Is No Recovery

"Lead us not into temptation," says the famous prayer. The old timers knew we were weak. They knew we couldn't resist. They didn't pray that we would "just say no" to temptation. They knew that wouldn't happen. Instead, they prayed to God to keep temptation away from us.

There's nothing like a little temptation to get the juices flowing. A roulette wheel that seems to stop just where you thought it would...a pretty woman who smiles at you on the cross-town bus...a pastry as big as a sombrero and as rich as El Dorado - oh...Heaven forefend!

But the hardest temptation to resist is the temptation of getting something for nothing.

"Investors begin dipping toes back into stocks," reports a Reuter's article.

"While economies keep contracting, stocks may have already started pricing in the end of recession and the beginning of a recovery."

Last week, the stock market showed a little leg. Yes, prices rose 12% over a 4-day period - teasing us with the prospect of a little fun. Finally - a rebound. Maybe.

The Dow rose again on Friday - up 53 points. The index is still down more than 15% for the year...and down more than 50% from its all time high. It is rare to see such big losses without a major rebound. Our guess is that we're finally ready for one.

On that basis, we have taken down our "Crash Alert" flag. If we're right, we're going to see stocks go up 20% to 50%. And we're going to hear more people talking about the end of the recession...and a new bull market.

GM said it really didn't need an extra $2 billion last week. Two of America's biggest banks said they were running in the black again. Even the retail sales figures were not as bad as people expected.

Houses in some communities - such as Riverside, California and Miami, Florida - are selling for only about half of what they brought three years ago. Surely this is the bottom of the housing slump, right? And sales of existing houses - at bargain prices - rose almost 50% in January, from a year before.

Our advice is to listen politely - but don't take it too seriously. This is a depression. If it follows the form of previous depressions, it will seem for a while that it is not a depression at all...but a recession, and one that is ending.

Many - probably most - people still believe that the crisis is merely a pause in an otherwise healthy economic model. They wait for the bailouts to take effect...and for the U.S. consumer to begin buying again. That is the fondest hope, by the way, of the Chinese government. The Chinese hold $1.4 trillion worth of U.S. dollar assets. They're worried that their stash of cash may lose value. But, so far, it is the only thing that is NOT losing value.

The poor Chinese began spreading their cash around just before Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall. A number of their high-profile deals went bad:

"China loses billions on equities bets ahead of markets' collapse," says an awkward headline in the Financial Times. By the end of June '08, the Chinese held more than $100 billion worth of U.S. equities. Bad timing. But the collapse of the U.S. stock market makes Beijing's other dollar holdings look good. The dollar has gone up. So, the lesson the Chinese have learned is this: the safest thing you can do is to continue lending to your biggest deadbeat customer.

It is a dangerous strategy. But the Chinese think that if they extend enough credit to the U.S. consumer, he'll come back in the shop. And Ben Bernanke, another dreamer, said last week that the recession could end this year.

Stocks will probably rise for a few months. The economic news will be better. The Dow could rise to above 10,000. Then, we will be tempted to think that all the king's horses and all the king's men are actually better at putting things back together than their reputation suggests. We'll be tempted to think that those bailouts and giveaways actually did the job...and that now, rather than turn our backs on temptation...we can safely give in to it.

More news from today's issue of Agora Financial's 5 Min. Forecast...

"The flailing consumer economy in the United States has caused a nasty decline in the amount of money foreign workers ship back to their families at home," writes Addison Wiggin. Just take a look at this chart on the Agora Financial 5 Min. Forecast page.

"Still," he writes, "according to the World Bank, 'remittances', as those payments are called, exceeded $300 billion in 2008. That money 'accounts for 45% of GDP in Tajikistan, 38% in Moldova and 24% in Lebanon and Guyana,' says the Economist.

Addison writes every day for The 5 Min Forecast, an executive series e- letter that provides a quick and dirty analysis of daily economic and financial developments-in five minutes or less.

*** The sentiment-du-jour is outrage. AIG has gotten about $160 billion in bailouts from the feds. Much of this money has been paid out to various counterparties. We're not supposed to know who the counterparties are, but the word on the street is that billions have gone to Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and two French banks, including Societe Generale. Why the taxpayer should be protecting Wall Street and foreign banks from their own errors is a subject for another day...

And now word has gotten to the press that AIG will pay out $165 million in bonuses. Top executives, for example, will get $6.5 million each. The company president defended the bonuses on two grounds.

First, he said, the execs were entitled to their bonuses by contracts made before the feds put in any money. The company couldn't unilaterally break its contracts.

Second, the firm needed to maintain the quality of its management. Especially, now that it is owned by the government, it needs good people to make sure the taxpayers get a good return on their investments.

The first argument seems to us watertight. He should have stopped there. The second leaks like a Baltimore water main. The easy retort is that given the quality of the top fellows at AIG bad management would be an improvement. But here at The Daily Reckoning we always forgo the cheap shots. Instead, we'll take a shot from the foul line:

What makes people think that they get better management by paying more money?

In the world at large, the difference in salary levels is shocking. At the top in Japan, the average executive earns only 3 times as much as the average salaryman. In Britain, top executives earn more than 10 times as much as their Japanese counterparts - or 39 times the average guy on the shop floor. And in America, the poor working stiff supports an executive who earns more than 300 times more than he does.

Is the American worth 10 times as much as his British confrere? Is he worth 100 times his Japanese competition? Is his business run better than either of theirs?

Don't make us laugh, dear reader. The only reason American executives earn so much is that they've conned the lumpeninvestoriat into believing that if they are paid more they will produce more. In fact, they're rarely the person actually responsible for output or innovation...and there is no evidence that we've ever seen to suggest that they do better at their jobs when they are paid more.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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But there was no container large enough to hold the subprime losses. Each time one was set out, it quickly overflowed. The latest reports tell us that the bilge is now 500 times deeper than the Fed head forecast...and still rising. And this comes after $11.7 trillion has been committed in the US alone to pumping it out. Whether the plumbers are plain idiots or clever rogues, we can't say, but it should be obvious after two years of watching them, their pumps don't work.

It is not often that we are called upon to advise the world's government. In fact, we can't remember a single time. But we can't resist a lost cause. So, we offer the Daily Reckoning Plan to Save the World, or DRPtStW for short.

We begin with a brief rehearsal of what went wrong: The economy as it was before the spring of 2007 was too wonderful for words; whenever you tried to describe it, it sounded ridiculous. For example: "The richest get richer and richer by borrowing from the poorest."

"We think; they sweat," said one analyst, explaining how Americans could live beyond their means year after year. The West was just recycling the East's "savings glut," added Bernanke. Meanwhile, derivatives - based on mortgage debt from people who couldn't pay - "helped to make the banking and overall financial system more resilient," said the IMF in 2006.

Each sentence must have made the gods choke...groan...and then laugh. But beginning in 2007, came a correction. Suddenly, the big spenders saw their houses fall in value. Lenders watched their collateral collapse. The end was nigh. Two years later, $50 trillion has been lost, according to an estimate from the Asian Development Bank. After a slap in the face like that, you'd expect a little clarity. Instead, the public seems to have acquired a taste for bamboozle; now they can't get enough of it.

Just read the Financial Times. This week it has a windy series on the "Future of Capitalism," inviting readers to imagine how the decaying old creed might be reformed. Alas, for capitalism, it's out of the frying pan, into the toilet. Larry Summers, Obama's number one financial advisor, voiced the prevailing view: "This notion that the economy is self-stabilizing is usually right, but it is wrong a few times a century. And this is one of those times...there's a need for extraordinary public action at those times."

The gist of his program can be expressed in another wistful absurdity: The consumer economy died because of too much spending; now we will revive it by spending more. "Give me your cunning bankers, your hopeless CEOs, your huddled masses of chiselers, spendthrifts and boondogglers," says the Obama team, "and we'll give them other peoples' money!"

"There's no place that should be reducing its contribution to global demand right now," explained Summers. "The world needs more demand." But it was demand that the world recently had too much of. English speakers took on too much debt to create it...and built too many houses and too many shopping malls to satiate it. And despite the ready cash offered by Bush, Bernanke, and Paulson, demand has sunk, because the real problem is not an absence of spending, but a surfeit of debt. In America, for example, total debt went from 150% of GDP in the '80s to 350% in 2007. The financial markets panicked when it became clear that debtors didn't have the cash flow to pay off the debt...and that an entire world economy had been fizzed up to supply products to people who couldn't afford them. Investors have been discounting debt-soaked assets ever since.

The fix is obvious - reduce the level of debt. About $20 trillion worth of debt, in the United States alone, needs to disappear. Then, consumers can go back to doing what they do best - consuming. But how do you reduce the debt level? Former Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon had the right idea in 1929: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate... It will purge the rottenness out of the system... Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."

What's the cure for a depression? It's a depression. Let willing buyers and sellers mark debt down to what it is really worth. Mellon's plan was not followed by the Hoover or Roosevelt administrations. Instead, they introduced elaborate bailouts, stimulus programs, and boondoggles. That is why the depression is known as the Great Depression, rather than the So-so Depression. By the end of the 30s, the US economy was almost exactly the same size it had been at the beginning. Likewise, in Japan, holding off liquidation brought a "lost decade" in the '90s. Bush followed in Hoover's footsteps. And now, the Obama administration follows in Roosevelt's and Miyazawa's.

Here's our advice: forget it. Let the depression do its work. Let the bad times roll!

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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