In New York, markets enjoyed some brief respite from the blizzard of weak data as reports on the US housing market and consumer confidence proved better than feared. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence climbed to 53.5 last month from 51 in July…
September 2nd, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "economy"
The Best Way to Bet on America
There is lots of ugly economic news out there, but one key bright spot is world trade. In the US, one particular industry will enjoy windfall profits from exports this year. That industry is agriculture. In 2009, world trade took a big hit in the wake of the financial crisis. Global exports fell 12%.
September 1st, 2010 | Chris Mayer | 49 comments | Continued
Healthy Correction or Ailing Recovery?
You’ll recall that when we left off last week, Ben Bernanke assured the world that while the recovery was not exactly what he had hoped for, he nevertheless had the situation in hand. He said he had the tools necessary to fix the problem and would do whatever was required.
September 1st, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 2 comments | Continued
Big Double Dipper
The US markets fell 1.5% last night after rallying a similar amount the previous session. This is a clear indicator of a market in trouble. The market rejoiced on Friday night after the US GDP figures came in at a better than expected 1.6%. The market ignored the fact that the expectations for the figure had to be ratcheted down twice…
August 31st, 2010 | Murray Dawes | 0 comments | Continued
The Summer the Recovery Went Missing
THE American economy is once again tilting toward danger. Despite an aggressive regimen of treatments from the conventional to the exotic – more than $800 billion in federal spending, and trillions of dollars worth of credit from the Federal Reserve – fears of a second recession are growing…
August 31st, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Hindenburg Meets Iceberg
Another week in Australia without a new government. Not bad for a Monday. The current Prime Minister is set to meet with three so-called independent members of Parliament to discuss forming a minority government. This gives us a chance to correct an error we made awhile back.”Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods,” wrote HL Mencken. We misattributed that quote to Mark Twain, another great American wit.
August 30th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 39 comments | Continued
Zen and the Art of Economy Repair
According to an article that appeared in The New York Times, written by Norihiro Kato, the Japanese have gotten good at sloughing off their worldly cares. Japan is no longer the world’s number two economy; it was eclipsed this summer by China. But the Japanese are used to slippage.
August 30th, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 2 comments | Continued
The Mistake-Correction Cycle of Real World Economics
In the real world, the economy is always making mistakes and always correcting them. Making mistakes and correcting them. And markets are always discovering what things are worth. They figure out what one thing is worth, conditions change and they change their minds.
August 30th, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
Don’t worry, I’m a central banker!
The Bernanke-led Fed … announced on Aug. 10 it will buy Treasuries to set a $2.05 trillion floor on its balance sheet and keep interest rates from rising. Trichet said Aug. 5 that the euro-area economy was surpassing forecasts, which may pave the way for the ECB to look at phasing out its emergency lending measures.
August 28th, 2010 | Nickolai Hubble | 0 comments | Continued
Adapt or Perish
“Do not overbid for assets – especially at the top of a real estate cycle.” You can’t really argue with that, can you? The big question is, where are we in the cycle? The opening line above came from our friend Phillip J. Anderson. Phil was speaking to a packed room in a building on Flinders Lane Tuesday night. He first came to our attention a few years ago when one of his readers hand-delivered us a copy of his book, “The Secret Life of Real Estate: How it Moves and Why.”
August 26th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 28 comments | Continued
The Nonsense Recovery
Eventually, investors are going to realize that the discussion of a “recovery” is nonsense. The economy can never recover the pace and frenzy of the bubble years – and so much the better. It has to move on to something new. The big question is: What will this new economy look like?
August 26th, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
The Idiots Guide to Repairing an Economy
Stocks went down early in the summer. We thought that was the beginning of the big “second shock” we’ve been waiting for. But we were wrong. The stock market rebounded. But now it is back at its July lows…and appears ready to keep going down. Why? Because small investors are leaving the stock market.
August 26th, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
The Dawes Premonition
When a blind mathematician exits the market because an ominous technical omen indicates a crash ahead, what do you make of it? Last week the whole internet was abuzz with the phrase “The Hindenburg Omen.” The “Omen” is actually a convergence of technical and momentum indicators which, when sighted, usually leads to a big market correction. Its creator Jim Miekka has used it to forecast major market tipping points.
August 24th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 18 comments | Continued
Earnings Aren’t What They Used to Be
As Wall Street’s big money players return from the Hamptons in the coming weeks, they will have to reassess the earnings power of their portfolio companies. Last week, Staples confirmed the message we heard from Office Depot and Office Max: the small business sector as a whole isn’t very healthy.
August 24th, 2010 | Dan Amoss | 0 comments | Continued
Economic outlook – look out (take 2)
Double dippers are on the rise. Nouriel Roubini: “Risk of a double dip recession in advanced economies (US, Japan, Eurozone) has now risen to 40%.” Robert Schiller: “… also said last week that there’s a greater than a 50 percent chance of falling into another downturn.”
August 21st, 2010 | Nickolai Hubble | 83 comments | Continued
