Folks in the Rockies are shivering. "Western Montana breaks records," says a report. Missoula reported a low of 8 degrees yesterday...14 degrees lower than the previous record for this early in the season.

Nearby Idaho had heavy snow last week too. Same thing in New Zealand, where roads were blocked by heavy snow.

In New Zealand, two major North Island highways remain closed after unseasonal heavy snow days stranded motorists for two nights. "Even if this was the middle of winter this is extreme," said an analyst.

And right now, it's spring in NZ. They had a spring snowstorm that put their winter snowstorms to shame.

"Forget global warming," says old friend Jim Davidson. "Get ready for another ice age." Buy Brazil, he advises; the cold will drive down farm output in North America and Europe.

As the BBC reports, worldwide temperatures are not increasing; they've been falling for the last 10 years. No one knows why. Global warming enthusiasts say the trend is still towards higher temperatures. Their opponents say the world is actually beginning a major period of cooling - driven by solar activity, not by man-made carbon emissions.

Who's right? We get out our mittens and wait to find out.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• An Old Friend With a New Idea on Global Warming
• A Chilly Trip to Argentina
• Global Warming and the Children of Israel
• Worley Parsons (ASX: WOR) Announces Pilbara Solar Energy Project
• Unsustainable Energy Trends

Just over the horizon, things are about to become dicey. This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release a new report on the future of world energy. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA will state categorically that "Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable."

There's not much wiggle room in that statement. According to the IEA, despite the recent fall in oil prices, the medium- and long-term outlooks for energy supply are grim. Conventional oil output is destined to decline. Demand will still grow, however, especially in the developing world. And the twain shall only meet by prices rising to clear the market. "It is," as our Arab friends like to say, "written."

The IEA performed a comprehensive study of 800 of the world's largest oil fields. And it concluded that depletion in conventional oil fields is occurring at a rate in excess of 9% per year. (That's an average. We see depletion rates in excess of 15% in Mexico's Cantarell field, for example.) This means that absent large amounts of new drilling, new investment in enhanced recovery and new discoveries, the current worldwide oil output will decline by over 9% per year. And if it keeps going along this trend (there's no reason why it won't), the base of world oil output could conceivably dry up within seven-10 years.

Don't get me wrong. The world won't run out of oil in seven-10 years. That's not how it works. It's just that volumes of conventional oil are declining. The takeaway point is that the energy markets will tighten up, like a hangman's noose around the collective neck of the oil-consuming world. We might not quite realize it, but when it comes to oil, we are all walking that long green mile.

The investment angle for OI is that the companies that own oil reserves in the ground, and the oil service companies that extract oil and natural gas, should profit in the future. Yes, the portfolio is down. It has been a hard hit to everyone (me too) who bought into the market up until midsummer. We've all lived through a midsummer's nightmare on this one.

So how long will we have to wait for this "future" to show up? Well, how long will the current worldwide recession last? I don't know. But I do know that many energy companies in the OI portfolio are at long-term lows in share price. If you can afford to be patient with your funds, these firms should eventually stage a comeback as oil prices rise again. As I said above, "It is written."

Says who, you ask? Written by whom? Well, how about the IEA? According to the IEA, even with massive levels of investment in the oil patch, the best estimate is that the global oil industry can reduce the rate of depletion to perhaps the 6% range. So the world energy industry will have to run faster just to keep from falling too far behind the demand curves.

Again, you need to keep in mind that current energy prices are just too low to support the level of energy investment that the world needs going forward. (Meanwhile, the U.S. government is spending trillions of dollars forward just to bail out the banks and bankers, not one of whom runs pump jacks.)

The IEA estimates that the oil industry will have to invest over $350 billion per year to counter the steep rates of decline in output. And even that will not be sufficient to maintain levels of output for traditional forms of crude oil. Thus, much of the future investment will have to go toward extracting other kinds of hydrocarbon substances.

What do I mean by "other kinds" of hydrocarbon substances? Fortunately, there are many different kinds of hydrocarbon molecules out there. The total worldwide carbon base actually adds up to a very big number, and that is NOT including the carbon that is part of the current living biology of the planet. For now I'm just discussing the fossilized carbon like oil, natural gas, bitumen in tar sands, oil shale and coal.

The big problem for the nonoil forms of carbon is affordability. That is, are people willing to pay? It takes a lot of steel and technology to transform some kinds of carbon into something we want to use. We see that, for example, in the Canadian tar sands projects. Lots of steel, concrete, labor, machinery, water and energy input - all to extract this thick, gunky crud that has to be upgraded to something that looks like diesel fuel. And the whole thing emits lots of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the process, as well.

The other big problem is whether or not there is the political will to "do carbon." Will the governments of the world allow - let alone promote - industry to invest in the industrial base that will be required to transform the varying kinds of carbon into something that the world can use? Because the other side of this coin is ever-increasing CO2 emissions, global warming and climate change. The more carbon that gets burned, the more CO2 that goes up the flue and into the atmosphere. In essence, within about two centuries, mankind is undoing the geological work of tens of millions of years.

This is not a "global warming" article. But most nations of the developed world have governments that are more and buying into the global warming thesis more. The political gun sights are on carbon. But if we collectively decarbonize the economy, the energy supply will dry up and we'll wish for the "good old days" when we had to worry only about Wall Street crashing. And besides, try telling the developing world not to develop. People have fought wars over lesser issues.

Do you want some numbers on hydrocarbon resources? Here are estimates of the total hydrocarbon resources in the world and the relative costs to convert them. This is my summary, based on several different government and academic compilations:

These are big numbers, right? And they can supply a lot of energy over a long time, but only if the world collectively decides to utilize the resources. If not? Well, you had better own some gold too.

The stark assessment from the IEA described above comes just as much of the world's banking and finance system lies in ruins. Many forms of lending have dried up, and much of the former system of world commerce is just not functioning.

So the politicians, bankers and investors of the world - including us - have their work cut out.

• Global Warming Temperatures Falling for the Last 10 Years
• The Energy Resources Are Out There
• Latest Energy Bull Market Won’t Be Confined to Crude Oil
• No Spike in Oil Price Following IEA “Third Oil Shock” Announcement
• Peak Oil: Supply Data Doesn’t Lie

“Global warming is much more of a threat than I thought. I’m embarrassed that I dismissed it for so long without any evidence. Apparently, there is much less dispute in the scientific community on this subject than we thought. Very few real scientists doubt that the climate is changing...and that the changes are at least in part caused by man. And from what I hear, since it is a problem caused by man, it is also something that we can fix at relatively little cost – or, at least that part of it caused by mankind.

“Not that I’m sure of any of this. Maybe the whole thing is wrong. I don’t know. But then, I don’t know if my warehouse is going to burn down either. And I still buy insurance. From what I’ve heard, the cost of insuring the world against the worst effects of climate change – if the theory is correct – is relatively low. Of course, the world doesn’t work as a business...or a household. But if I were running the world...and I were treating it as a business, I’d buy the insurance. Even it fit turned out to be untrue, I’d still think it was a good buy.”

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Global Warming and the Children of Israel
• Bad News if You Are Afraid of Inflation in Consumer Prices
• 2009 Federal Deficit Could Go As High As $2 Trillion
• Farmers Say ‘Rain, Rain Go Away’ Throughout the United States
• Immoral Governments Pursuing Inflation With Gusto

We begin by telling a story that a Jewish colleague told us yesterday.

“You really have to be careful to maintain good relations with your neighbours. That’s something my family discovered in WWII. My father was just a little boy in Paris when the war broke out...and then the French surrendered. You know, France was divided in two...there was the zone occupied by the Nazis and there was the unoccupied zone to the South. Since they were Jewish, they figured they’d sneak across the line and once they got to the unoccupied zone, they would just keep a low profile, not mention to anyone that they were Jews, and they would be safe. But my father was only a kid. And when they put him in the local school, in the little town they were staying in, the first thing he did was tell everyone that he was a Jew. So everyone knew why they were there. And then, when the Germans took over all of France anyone in the village could have denounced them and get them sent to a concentration camp. But no one did.”

This recalled another story. A disagreeable French woman, then in her ’70s, once told us that during the war she had been the directress of a boarding school for little children. It was a Catholic boarding school. But it was wartime and a few of the children were Jewish, sent there by their parents in the hopes that they would be safe.

“When the Germans came to Lyon, they came around to the school. They demanded that we send out the Jewish children. The truth is, I don’t like Jews. But I disliked the Nazis even more. I had already changed the school’s records so the Jewish names didn’t show up anywhere. So, I told the lieutenant that we only had Catholic children. And I showed him the list. If he had wanted to pursue the matter, he probably would have found the Jewish kids and then sent them and me to the camps. But maybe he didn’t really want to find them...you never knew; it was a strange time.”

Well, times are always strange, we guess. And we find our little bits of courage and grace here and there...in odd places...and generally in the shadows. In the harsh light of the public eye, these civilized little acts of kindness and courage wilt like wildflowers...or get run over by a campaign bus.

When a presidential candidate discovers that a former friend or supporter has become a liability, for example, he is “thrown under the bus.” Jeremiah Wright has the tire tracks to prove it – since he was thrown under the bus of the Obama campaign. The Obama group also sacrificed Robert Malley, an advisor on the Middle East, after it was revealed that he had met with Hamas officials. As every American knows, the Hamas fellows are bad hombres, and anyone who meets with them is no friend of Israel. Since being a friend of Israel, like wearing a flag on the lapel, is a requirement for America’s top office, Obama had to push Malley off the team and then run him over with the bus.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security advisor, said he thought the Jewish lobby has become too powerful and is showing a “McCarthyite tendency...by slandering, vilifying, demonizing. They very promptly wheel out anti-Semitism...”

So far, Mr. Brzezinski hasn’t been dropped under the bus, but he should probably check his ticket.

Over on the McCain bus, another man of faith has been tossed beneath the treads. The Rev. John Hagee has views worthy of a man with great faith. According to Gideon Rachman’s Blog in the FT , he believes the European Union is headed by the Antichrist. In his mind, the EU is a prelude to Apocalypse. And who are we to say he is wrong? There’s no mention of it in the EU charter, but who knows what they’re up to?

If Mr. Hagee had stopped there, he probably would have been all right, since most Americans agree that there is something ungodly about Europe. But then he goes further...and says that the Jews were murdered in WWII for a good reason – to drive them to Israel. It’s all part of God’s plan, he says; God made Hitler so the Jews would move to Israel, so the Apocalypse would come, followed by the second coming. How he knows God’s plans in such detail, we can’t imagine, but that’s the beauty of faith; you can believe anything you want...until you put it to the test.

Rev. Hagee is a McCain supporter. But McCain is no longer a Hagee supporter; the reverend had to go “under the bus.”

Under the bus, too, is where skepticism regarding global warming is going. George W. Bush fairly recently got on board, agreeing that the earth’s climate is changing and the humans are to blame for it. And now all three candidates not only favor doing something about it – all endorse the idea of “cap and trade” as a palliative measure.

Here too, faith conquers wit. No one really knows what direction the earth’s mean temperature is going...or why. There are only hypotheses.

“But if you really want to know what it’s like to be a 16th-century heretic, try saying you’re a bit skeptical about man-made global warming,” writes Harry Mount in the Daily Telegraph .

In the middle ages, the Catholic Church made money by offering sinners a way to buy their way out of Hell – with an indulgence. In today’s secular world, you will have to buy your way out of the sin of using too much fossil fuel, by buying “carbon rights.”

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning Australia

• Global Warming Temperatures Falling for the Last 10 Years
• An Old Friend With a New Idea on Global Warming
• Britain, the Empire Which Had Paramount Global Power
• Something to Work With
• Children Growing Up in a Different World