So how does a government fund its spending programs if global creditors begin to turn to other assets? Well, it can have its own central bank “monetise the debt.” But having the central bank buy government bonds with new money is a sure-fire path to currency depreciation and higher interest rates.
November 23rd, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "interest rates"
Homebuilding Goes Down While Economy Gathers Strength
Meanwhile, the news two days ago was that homebuilding took a dive in October. Work began on 11% fewer houses than the month before.
November 20th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
More Money in Cash Right Now Than Equity in U.S. Companies
Now, there is a very good reason investors are reducing their allocation to stocks. As we’ve said before, we think the equity premium – what people are willing to pay for stocks – is regressing to the mean. It was so high for so long because corporate cash flows in the second half of the last century benefitted so much from low interest rates and globalisation.
November 6th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 15 comments | Continued
Interest Rates and Inflation
And that’s the point. It is all money in the bank. There is, according to the press, a difference of opinion between Treasury and the Reserve Bank over interest rates and their proper direction.
November 3rd, 2009 | Dr. Steven Kates | 79 comments | Continued
U.S. Government Must Roll Over $3.4 Trillion in Debt Over Next Four Years
And if America can’t find anyone willing to finance its deficits, what then? Well, the luxury of issuing debts in the currency you also print is that you can print money to pay for them. Technically, you can never become insolvent when you enjoy this privilege. The Fed, for example, can create new money to buy debt issued by the Treasury, funding deficits ad infinitum.
November 3rd, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
IMF Report Concludes Aussie Banks are “Very Sound”…
The Guv also said he would not be too timid about raising interest rates. He believes the threat [of global financial calamity] has passed and that the bigger threat may well be inflation. That kind of tough talk sent the Aussie dollar right up to over 92 cents against the greenback. If it weren’t late fall, now might be the perfect time to take a trip to America and see how cheap things really are.
October 16th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 13 comments | Continued
Can Governments and Central Banks Prevent More Credit Writedowns?
Are we changing our tune, then, about what to expect from markets? Not one bit. But the question now is timing. The collapse of 2008 was so severe because of the sudden reduction in leverage in the financial sector. As assets fell in value, the most highly leveraged firms (or lenders who raised money by selling debt) went out of business.
October 12th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 34 comments | Continued
Will Gold Make Higher Highs From Here?
What’s more, the emergence of the gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) has put a huge portion of the gold market in a very small number of hands. If the ETFs sell…who will they sell to? Or more succinctly, a lot of the gold demand is coming from a few institutions. If other institutions (central banks and sovereign wealth funds) don’t pick up the slack, there will be more sellers than buyers and prices will fall.
October 7th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 3 comments | Continued
Big Difference Between Stark News in Job Market and Behaviour of Stock Market
There have been jobless recoveries from recession before. But you still have to wonder how there can be such a big difference between the stark news in the job market and the behaviour of the stock market. True, economists will tell you that jobs are the last thing to recover from a recession. Businesses don’t hire until they are sure everything is in the clear.
October 5th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
The Dead Weight Cost of the Stimulus
On 21 September I provided testimony to the Senate Economics References Committee on the damage done by the government’s “stimulus” package. The submission was broken into five separate sections.
October 2nd, 2009 | Dr. Steven Kates | 35 comments | Continued
Japanese Practically Gave Away Money to Anyone Who Would Borrow It
We wrote a book, Financial Reckoning Day with Addison Wiggin, in 2003. In it, we predicted that the United States would follow Japan into a long slump. We thought it would begin after the tech crash of 2000…
September 16th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
Why Do Men and Women Want Money and Power?
At least as practiced by the leading macroeconomists of our time – such as Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Larry Summers. It’s just a show-off sport…the idea is to impress the world with some fancy data-heavy formula…win the Nobel Prize and save the world.
September 9th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Financial World Has Every Reason to Encourage Government Stimulus
Besides, the limits on executive compensation are window-dressing for public (voter) consumption. With bonuses limited by statute, we reckon more compensation for the financial industry will move back to stock option grants. That means for the financial industry to preserve its privileged status, stock prices have to move higher.
September 8th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued
China Was the Maker and the United States Was the Taker
When we were growing up, China was a ‘Red Menace.’ It was full of mad people doing mad things. They humiliated people by making them wear dunce hats and march through town. The Chinese made steel in backyard barbecues.
August 20th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
It Would Take About 19 Years to Erase Debt From Bubble Period
Now, along comes the Comstock crowd with roughly the same guess – two decades. They figure that the savings rate will go up to 10% and that the effect of taking that money out of the consumer economy will be to put the United States into a long, soft slump…
August 12th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
