Well that’s a good sign. Not twelve hours after we went to press with our latest newsletter – highlighting how September is historically the market’s worst month – and describing a Long Depression, stocks in New York rally by almost three percent. How is that good sign? The Bear had everyone feeling pretty bearish about him. You can measure this in the number of put option buyers or in surveys.
September 2nd, 2010 | Dan Denning | 23 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "rally"
A Rally in a Bull Costume
This rally has gone on for so long most people think it is not a rally at all, but a new bull market.
March 11th, 2010 | Bill Bonner | 79 comments | Continued
The US Dollar Showing Signs of Life
We have been saying for a while now that the US Dollar is overdue for a bounce and the price action of the past week or so is starting to shape up as a possible launching pad for a more sustained rally.
December 16th, 2009 | Murray Dawes | 1 comment | Continued
You Can Lead Investors to Liquidity but You Can’t Make Them Buy Stocks
Our version of this Christmas story is that a long-term bear market began in 2000. This was the fall-out from the dot.com boom and the end of an 18-year bull market in stocks that had begun in 1982. Left to its own devices, the market would have declined to more reasonable valuations and companies would have sorted out real ways to grow earnings.
December 14th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
A Trader’s Market or an Investor’s Market?
Is it a fragile little market after all? You can’t really tell by appearances. For example, the world’s largest bond insurer (MBIA) fell 27% in New York trading. It reported a $727.8 million loss in insured credit derivatives. Yes…those credit landmines are still out there.
But the proper question – if you’re sitting on the fence about this move – is how broad the rally is.
November 11th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
Looking at WPL and Oil Side by Side
“A simple comparison of the Brent crude price and WPL (see below) shows how impressive Woody’s rally has been from the lows.
October 8th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 0 comments | Continued
A Bull Market That’s Missing Parts
For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued, on a cyclically adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.
October 2nd, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 3 comments | Continued
US Federal Government Ran the Biggest Deficit in History
In theory, the US government could do the same. But, in fact, it never runs significant surpluses. There are too many people who want too much bread and too many circuses. And you don’t win votes by denying the voters…
September 30th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 2 comments | Continued
Jim Grant Declares Boom is Nigh
What is remarkable about the Grant conversion is that his vision gives off so little heat and light. His WSJ article shillyshallies around; rehearses the history of previous recessions…
September 28th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Is Gold Going Up Because People Fear Inflation?
We began having doubts about the ‘feds inflate…gold soars’ hypothesis last year. It was too easy…too obvious. And if it were that easy to inflate a nation’s currency, how come the Japanese couldn’t get the hang of it…
September 24th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Bear Markets Do Not End With Stocks Still Trading at Nearly 20 Times Earnings
What’s more, stock market trends tend to follow long cycles. The last bear market bottom was in ’82. It came after 14 years of disillusionment and disappointment. By the time stocks were ready to go up investors were sick of hearing about them.
September 4th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 2 comments | Continued
Roubini Says United States Will Climb Out of Recession Towards End of Year
Maybe he will be right. Maybe this downturn will resemble Japan’s multiple recessions over the last two decades. Or maybe it will be a single, deeper and longer lasting slump – like the one in the early ’30s. We don’t know. Either way, it should be thought of as a depression…
August 19th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Understanding What is Behind the Price Movements
Many analysts regard everything beyond the price data as noise. You never know whose ideas or whose explanation or whose predictions are correct, they say. All you really know for sure is the price.
August 18th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Take Away Stimulus Spending and You’ve Got an Economy Entering Depression
Yes, now the economy is firing on all cylinders…or just about. Yep. No doubt about it. Still, there are some nagging doubts. The latest figures show foreclosures still increasing – up 7% in July from a year before. And house prices are still going down.
August 14th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
Is Inflation Necessary for Recovery and Growth in the United States?
It was French economist Jacques Rueff who revealed the scam more than half a century ago. The whole idea of Keynesian stimulus, he explained, was to cause inflation…which would reduce the real price of labor. In a modern democracy, politics prevents wages from falling.
August 3rd, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
