Banks have recapitalised, making up for some of their losses from 2008 and 2009. But you still have a financial system addicted to debt and leverage. Investors have bought into the recovery story, though, and taken a punt on shares at just the time they ought to be reducing their allocation to shares (in our estimate). Why?
January 29th, 2010 | Dan Denning | 12 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "slipstream trader"
A Trader’s Market or an Investor’s Market?
Is it a fragile little market after all? You can’t really tell by appearances. For example, the world’s largest bond insurer (MBIA) fell 27% in New York trading. It reported a $727.8 million loss in insured credit derivatives. Yes…those credit landmines are still out there.
But the proper question – if you’re sitting on the fence about this move – is how broad the rally is.
November 11th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
Banks Could Face Larger Asset Writedowns and Losses than IMF has Modelled
Next time around, though, we reckon the losses – when they come – will be on domestic real estate assets. And with so much exposure to domestic real estate (mortgage loans), the assets could face a world of hurt. But even if bank asset quality doesn’t crash (housing prices don’t crash), an external shock affects Aussie bank liabilities.
October 28th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
E-mail Update for Paid-up Subscribers Only
What is not great is that the e-mail update was then forwarded over 1,000 times, presumably to people who are not paid-up subscribers.
October 23rd, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
Stocks Better than Bonds When Inflation is a Big Threat
What we make of it is that dividends used to account for a much larger percentage of your total return in stocks than they have in the last twenty years. Times change. There’s no rule that says the future has to be just like the past. But if stocks beat inflation, should you invest in stocks for income or capital appreciation? That’s the second question.
October 19th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Aussie Dollar is Crushing Long-time Rivals Like the Pound and the U.S. Dollar
One way to view a currency, we read somewhere recently, is as a national obligation secured by national assets. Those “assets” are loosely defined as economic growth (GDP) or the tax revenues a government can generate. A growing economy generates royalties and income taxes and demonstrates to international bond investors Australia’s ability to service interest and principal on debt.
October 9th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 18 comments | Continued
Aren’t You the Least Bit Suspicious that Goldman is Talking Up the Banks?
Goldman Sachs has raised its rating on large banks to “attractive.” In related news, Neal Barofsky, the special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program has said that the Feds may have, er, not quite told the truth about the health of the banks receiving TARP funds. He didn’t use the word, lie though. How are these two items related? We’ll explain below.
October 6th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Slipstream Trader: How to find small cap gains from large cap stocks
Editor’s Note: In the article below from Gabriel Andre–editor of the Swarm Trader and Slipstream Trader–you’ll learn how using technical analysis and chart analysis on ASX 200-listed stocks could add to your Australian stock returns. Read what “Operation Slipstream” is all about and how Gabriel plans to use it for the rest of 2009 to generate trading gains from blue chip stocks.
September 9th, 2009 | Gabriel Andre | 6 comments | Continued