The unconventional wisdom is that the Fed has learned nothing from the last bubble – or is so scared of deflation it’s willing to gamble on another bubble in asset prices. The trouble , the eventual bust in asset prices has to be reckoned up. And the Fed, along with all central banks who key off the Fed’s policy, are just kicking the can down the road, hoping asset values improve.
November 10th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 7 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "U.S. dollar"
We Can Expect More and More People to Want to Own Gold
Gold seems to be advancing towards a new milestone – $1,100. Makes us nervous. We always feel more comfortable out in the wide, open spaces…
November 9th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 1 comment | Continued
Historically, the Only Reserve a Central Bank Can Trust is Gold
Imagine what would have happened if pharaoh had stocked up on radicchio instead of grain? Those 7 lean years would have been a lot leaner than they were.
November 6th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 3 comments | Continued
Price of Gold Communicates U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policy is Lousy
It’s also possible that the Fed thinks a weak dollar will reduce America’s trade deficit, boost its export competitiveness, and lead to higher employment. We think this is a pipe dream. And we’re not talking about a lead pipe. We’re talking William Blake-style opium.
November 5th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 3 comments | Continued
Banks Could Face Larger Asset Writedowns and Losses than IMF has Modelled
Next time around, though, we reckon the losses – when they come – will be on domestic real estate assets. And with so much exposure to domestic real estate (mortgage loans), the assets could face a world of hurt. But even if bank asset quality doesn’t crash (housing prices don’t crash), an external shock affects Aussie bank liabilities.
October 28th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 2 comments | Continued
Is It Really the End of the Dollar Carry Trade?
But as you’ll learn today, the bankers, the Fed, the media…the whole lot of them…have learned nothing from last year. The hangover was just beginning to set in, so everyone began drinking again heavily. And now the party is wild and out of control. Even the cops are drunk.
October 27th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Biggest Factor Affecting Consumer Price Inflation is Growth in Bank Credit
Much will be revealed this week in the Aussie market, although a lot will probably remain obscure too. Producer price data for the September quarter comes out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Inflation anyone? Maybe not in wages. But certainly in raw materials (energy).
October 26th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 1 comment | Continued
US Dollar a Sort of Monetary Brand
The dollar has been the “Coca-Cola of monetary brands,” says James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. But even the best of brands can be lousy investments.
October 22nd, 2009 | Chris Mayer | 4 comments | Continued
Stocks Better than Bonds When Inflation is a Big Threat
What we make of it is that dividends used to account for a much larger percentage of your total return in stocks than they have in the last twenty years. Times change. There’s no rule that says the future has to be just like the past. But if stocks beat inflation, should you invest in stocks for income or capital appreciation? That’s the second question.
October 19th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Aussie Dollar is Crushing Long-time Rivals Like the Pound and the U.S. Dollar
One way to view a currency, we read somewhere recently, is as a national obligation secured by national assets. Those “assets” are loosely defined as economic growth (GDP) or the tax revenues a government can generate. A growing economy generates royalties and income taxes and demonstrates to international bond investors Australia’s ability to service interest and principal on debt.
October 9th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 18 comments | Continued
Aussie Dollar Ready to Storm Past US Dollar
Yesterday’s episode of the Daily Reckoning left off with the question of whether 5,000 was in sight on the ASX 200. The answer today is that it is just over the horizon. The index closed up 2.3% to 4,695. The more investors thought about the recovery/China/demise of the dollar story, the more they liked buying stocks (especially gold stocks).
October 8th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 26 comments | Continued
When it Comes to Economic Health, Nothing Beats a Depression
According to a pair of researchers from the University of Michigan, a depression does more for longevity than diet or exercise.
October 5th, 2009 | Bill Bonner | 0 comments | Continued
Big Difference Between Stark News in Job Market and Behaviour of Stock Market
There have been jobless recoveries from recession before. But you still have to wonder how there can be such a big difference between the stark news in the job market and the behaviour of the stock market. True, economists will tell you that jobs are the last thing to recover from a recession. Businesses don’t hire until they are sure everything is in the clear.
October 5th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Inflation is Our Future
On one hand, the deflationists are claiming that given the extremely high debt levels in the West, further inflation is impossible.
September 30th, 2009 | Puru Saxena | 4 comments | Continued
Underlying Demand During a Housing Shortage
That is clever to suggest that when rates rise people will have to find another way to say that houses are affordable. But we reckon when rates rise, as they eventually must, a lot of new home buyers will find out that access to cheap credit does not make a house affordable. It just makes the amount of debt you owe to the bank a lot larger.
September 30th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 41 comments | Continued
