Are we changing our tune, then, about what to expect from markets? Not one bit. But the question now is timing. The collapse of 2008 was so severe because of the sudden reduction in leverage in the financial sector. As assets fell in value, the most highly leveraged firms (or lenders who raised money by selling debt) went out of business.
October 12th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 34 comments | ContinuedAll Posts Tagged With: "Wayne Swan"
Total Meltdown of the Aussie Housing Market
Next Wednesday will see the release of the national accounts for June. Those figures will probably show the economy being less bad than previously expected. That might lead to the end of the “emergency setting” of the RBA cash rate at 3%, which will precipitate the decline and fall…
August 28th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 92 comments | Continued
Mortgage Bubble and More at Stake Between Australia and China
Two other items of note in yesterday’s housing numbers. The First Home Buyer’s consolidated their position as the most important group propping up Australian house prices. First home buyers increased their percentage of total owner-occupied mortgage demand from 28.6% in April to 29.5% in May. Nearly a third of all demand for new mortgages is coming from new buyers sucked in by the grant. Hmmn.
July 9th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
Rio Scraps Deal to Sell to Aluminium Corporation of China
So what now? Well, the Chinalco bid came at the bottom of the market. Things are a bit better now. And shareholders seem eager to provide the needed capital rather than bringing on board a suitor whose intentions are at best, opaque.
June 5th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 0 comments | Continued
The Very Large Bubble of Government Debt
All those bubbles are popping. You do not wipe out twenty five years of credit and leverage excess in a mere eighteen months. We are barely halfway through the liquidation/loss realisation phase. The essential question is which assets are going to perform the best as governments inflate and create a new bubble in government debt?
May 12th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
RBA Hoping it Has Done Enough for Economy
For now, at least for this week, it sure does look like the appetite for risk is back. The U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen are weak, while commodity currencies like the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars are up. Bond prices are down, stocks are trending up, and even oil is creeping back over $50, looking to make a breakout.
May 6th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 5 comments | Continued
Were the Government’s Stress Tests a Bogus Exercise in Deception?
Here we go again. Australia’s Federal budget-revealing glorious new deficit, is coming is coming next week. But this week will be all about tomorrow’s Reserve Bank meeting and today’s house price data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
May 4th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 0 comments | Continued
Australia’s Capital Crisis and its Chinese Future
Meanwhile, what about the present? The IMF issues its World Economic Outlook twice a year. When times are good, the forecasts are too optimistic. When times are bad, the forecasts tend to be too pessimistic. And when times are really bad??
April 17th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued
Government Preparing Another Stimulus
So what gives, why is there a huge difference between the seasonally adjusted figures and the original data series? If you look just at the original data series you’ll see that retail turnover has declined 32.1% in original terms from $24.7 billion in December of 2008 to $16.6 billion in February of 2009.That would be headline news!
April 2nd, 2009 | Dan Denning | 6 comments | Continued
Swan Rejects China Minmetals’ Bid
This is no laughing matter for OZ or its shareholders. The company has $1.3 billion in debt it must refinance by Tuesday. The $2.6 billion bid from Minmetals would have solved that problem. But now the question is whether OZ’s bankers will give it more time, or pull the plug.
March 30th, 2009 | Dan Denning | 4 comments | Continued