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	<title>The Daily Reckoning Australia &#187; world bank</title>
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		<title>When it Comes to Economic Health, Nothing Beats a Depression</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/when-it-comes-to-economic-health-nothing-beats-a-depression/2009/10/05/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/when-it-comes-to-economic-health-nothing-beats-a-depression/2009/10/05/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:10:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Americas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IOUs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[life expectancy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reserve currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert B. Zoelick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US debt service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US homeowners]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WWII]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=7156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to a pair of researchers from the University of Michigan, a depression does more for longevity than diet or exercise.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The God of Abraham may rule the Vatican. But another group of gods rules finance. They are like the Greek gods...playful and mischievous, with a keen sense of humor. They look down from heaven not like a benevolent shepherd watching his flock, but like a cackling gawker betting on mud-wrestlers.</p>
<p>Here at <em>The Daily Reckoning</em>, this is not the first time we've paid homage to these lesser deities. Nor is it the first time we've mentioned their perverse method: Those whom these gods wouldst destroy are first cursed with good luck. Today, we look at the bright side: later, they are blessed by misfortune.</p>
<p>According to a pair of researchers from the University of Michigan, a depression does more for longevity than diet or exercise. Life expectancy during the worst years of the Great Depression increased from 57.1 years in 1929 to 63.3 years in 1933, says the report by Jose A. Tapia Granados and Ana Diez Roux. It didn't matter whether you were a man or a woman, black or white. And it didn't matter if you were in the US during the Great Depression or in Spain, Japan or Sweden during their economic downturns. The results were the same.</p>
<p>By contrast, life expectancy declined during the boom years. For most age groups, "mortality tended to peak during years of strong economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929 and 1936-1937)," they wrote in the "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."</p>
<p>Conventional wisdom holds that recessions are times of stress. People do not eat as well. They skip medical check-ups. They should drop dead earlier. Instead, they live longer. Perhaps it is because the economy slows down, allowing people to live at a more comfortable pace. Maybe the unemployed get more sleep. We don't know. But if you want to live an extra six years, nothing works like a slump. When it comes to economic health too, nothing beats a depression.</p>
<p>Last week, World Bank president, Robert B. Zoelick, explained to Washington how the dollar made Americans wealthy:</p>
<p>"The United States is incredibly fortunate that the dollar enjoys this special status [as the world's reserve currency.]" It made it possible for Americans could buy things abroad with dollars and then, rather than come back to the United States as a claim against US assets, the dollars stayed in foreign central bank vaults. It was as if the Untied States, and the United States alone, could issue IOUs and never have to pay up. An "exorbitant privilege," Valery Giscard d'Estaing called it.</p>
<p>Since the end of WWII, the world had no real alternative. It had to use the dollar in its international transactions, just as it once used gold. This had a marvelous effect on world trade and roughly the same effect on America as a winning lottery ticket. And like a lottery winner, she was ruined by it.</p>
<p>With no effective limit on the number of IOUs they could issue, Americans issued far too many. From a low of around 2% of disposable income in 1945, US debt service rose to nearly 15% in 2007. In terms of total debt/GDP, the ratio was only about 150% in 1945, but that was with public debt from the war years at 120% of GDP. By 1950, the war debt had been cut down to about 70% of GDP, with private debt still at about 35%. At the height of the bubble years - 2005 to 2007 - total debt in America hit 360% of GDP, only 60% of it owed by the federal government.</p>
<p>Of course, most economists saw nothing to worry about. Instead, they set to work proving that such a 'dynamic' and 'flexible' economy would never fail.</p>
<p>They even won Nobel Prizes for elegant formulae that showed investors how to beat the market, year in and year out.</p>
<p>Then, the bottom fell out of asset prices in '07-'09. In March of this year, Americans found that their stocks had fallen back to real values not seen since 1968. Their houses were sinking fast too. By May 2009, one out of every four US homeowners was 'underwater' - with a mortgage greater than the value of his house. Incomes and profits were falling, along with the net worth of the typical American household. Everything was falling - except debt. How the gods must have roared when they saw the looks on their faces! In the biggest, longest boom of all time - even with a monopoly on the world's reserve currency - Americans had lost ground.</p>
<p>But while Americans were once damned by good fortune, they are now blessed by bad luck. "Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options to the dollar," says Mr. Zoelick. Thank the rascal gods. Americans are saving again...rebuilding their balance sheets...and, eventually, their economies. They can even look forward to living longer. And with a little more bad luck, maybe their moron economists will wise up too.</p>
<p>Until next time,</p>
<p>Bill Bonner<br />
for The Daily Reckoning Australia</p>
Similar Posts:<ul><li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/economic-forces/2008/07/17/" rel="bookmark" title="Thursday July 17, 2008">Contradiction in the Balance of Economic Forces</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-greatness-of-a-depression-is-commensurate-to-the-governments-efforts-to-prevent-it/2009/05/04/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday May 4, 2009">The Greatness of a Depression is Commensurate to the Government&#8217;s Efforts to Prevent It</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/good-luck-with-money/2009/06/30/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday June 30, 2009">Good Luck with Money</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/rip-robert-s-mcnamara-and-californias-holes-in-its-budget/2009/07/08/" rel="bookmark" title="Wednesday July 8, 2009">RIP Robert S. McNamara and California&#8217;s Holes in its Budget</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-solution-to-a-depression-is-a-depression/2009/02/09/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday February 9, 2009">The Solution to a Depression is a Depression</a></li>
</ul><!-- Similar Posts took 31.903 ms -->]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Arable Farmland More Precious Than Gold</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/arable-farmland-more-precious-than-gold/2009/09/29/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/arable-farmland-more-precious-than-gold/2009/09/29/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2009 03:49:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Denning</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Antal Feteke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[arable farmland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australian share market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bullion price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Investment Review Board]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Standard Institute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Place Securities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Colonialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nufarm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Perth Mint]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Zoellick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sinochem Corp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sovereign Wealth Funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world bank]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=7103</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is another candidate for "largest Chinese investment in Australia ever." But this time, it involves an asset that is arguably more strategic than oil and more precious than gold. But before we get to that little drama in the Australian share market (and the five-year opportunity it represents), spare a thought for gold.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is another candidate for "largest Chinese investment in Australia ever." But this time, it involves an asset that is arguably more strategic than oil and more precious than gold. But before we get to that little drama in the Australian share market (and the five-year opportunity it represents), spare a thought for gold.</p>
<p>In fact, spare a whole weekend for it! You have may have missed the weekend edition of the Daily Reckoning. If you did, you can read it <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-bug-conference/2009/09/28/" target="_blank">here</a>.  While regular editor Alex Cowie was sunning himself in Queensland, we took the opportunity to tell you about what should easily be Australia's premier conference on gold.</p>
<p>Yes, we know it's being held in Canberra from November 2nd to the 5th and that it's during Melbourne Cup week. If you can't make it then, that's fine (hopefully there will be a transcript or a video recording). But it should be a great show.</p>
<p>The headliner of the event is Professor Antal Feteke of the Gold Standard Institute. Bron Sucheki from the Perth Mint will be there as well, along with Barry Dawes from Martin Place Securities and yours truly from the Daily Reckoning.</p>
<p>Of course we know a whole four days talking about gold as money and gold stocks isn't for everyone. But then, everyone couldn't fit anyway! The venue only holds 160 seats and they are already selling. To find out more contact conference organiser Dr. Marcus Matthews, who is coordinating the event on behalf of the Gold Standard Institute. He can be reached at <a href="mailto:feketeaustralia@gmail.com" target="_blank">feketeaustralia@gmail.com</a>.</p>
<p>And if you're reading today's letter from somewhere that is not Australia, maybe you should consider coming to visit. Our old friends at Opportunity Travel (with whom we went to China in 2004) have organised a tour of Australia and New Zealand from January 14th to the 29th, including stops in Sydney, Melbourne, and Auckland (where they will visit with mining guru Rick Rule).</p>
<p>There's much more on the agenda. Some of it is business and some of it is pleasure. If you're an American, it might be a good way to enjoy the purchasing power of your money while it lasts, before the rest of the world stops taking it seriously. Joining and leading the tour is another old friend, Chris Mayer of <em>Capital and Crisis</em>. Your editor will co-sponsor the Melbourne leg of the journey, and perhaps shout the whole group a round at the Prince of Wales across the street.</p>
<p>If you want a  look at the full day-by-day itinerary, e-mail Barb Periello at <a href="mailto:info@opptravel.com" target="_blank">info@opptravel.com</a> or (from the States) call her toll-free at (800) 926-6575 x 104 or direct at (561) 243-6276 x 104. Barb says the program is already more than half full, so if you're interested in learning more, please get in touch today while there are still a few spots available.</p>
<p>Before we leave the subject of gold altogether, we had a chat about it on the phone yesterday with Neil Charnock, editor and entrepreneur behind <a href="http://www.goldoz.com.au/" target="_blank">www.goldoz.com.au</a>. Neil said his charts were telling him that the bullion price is ready for a move. We asked him if the stocks confirmed that move...or if they led it...or lagged it."</p>
<p>"A bit of both. It depends on if you're looking at the majors or the juniors. But overall, the gold sector behaviour is pointing to a very positive run ahead in the coming months.  The big caps ran up hard after October last year and have traded on a high plateau ever since. It's possible they're just getting slapped about by the funds taking profits as they play the range."</p>
<p>"Hmm. What about the smaller ones?"</p>
<p>"Well a lot of them were pushed down to crazy valuations late last year. But they've been running ever since. Overall, the technicals are telling me that time is running out before the large cap train leaves the station.  When you combine this with the smaller cap behaviour you get an obvious sign that gold will break out in the coming weeks and the gold stocks will perform strongly.  The last time I saw this type of broad based gold stock action was mid 2005."</p>
<p>Okay. One last note about gold, albeit indirect. World Bank President Robert Zoellick (an American) shook his countrymen by the shoulders yesterday.  "The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar's place as the world's predominant reserve currency," he said. "Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options."</p>
<p>So back to the beginning. What asset is more strategic than oil and more precious than gold? Why arable farmland of course! That was the conclusion we reached yesterday when putting the finishing touches on a report that details the growing number of Sovereign Wealth Funds and corporations buying up vast tracts of farmland in Africa.</p>
<p>It's been dubbed the "New Colonialism" by some, which is a politically loaded term. But then, land is the sort of the asset that could easily become politically loaded over the next twenty years. A lot of people want (need) arable farm land. Not everyone has it.</p>
<p>You may be wondering what this has to do with the $2.8 billion bid by China's Sinochem Corp for agrochemical and fertlisier firm Nufarm. That's just the question we've been mulling over. If it goes through, the deal would be China's largest acquisition of an Aussie asset to date.</p>
<p>But there are some questions to be answered first. Will the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) block the deal? Is it a good value for Nufarm shareholders? Are there more stocks like Nufarm you should know about?</p>
<p>We can't see any reason why the FIRB would block the deal. But then, if it thought about it, it might. Nufarm doesn't own arable land, mind you. And most of its sales are generated outside Australia. But it's not a stretch to call fertiliser and agrichemicals "strategic assets" either.</p>
<p>Is it a good value for Nufarm shareholders? Sinochem is offering $13 a share. That's a slight premium to yesterday's closing share price of $11.96. The bid values Nufarm at about $2.8 billion. It's closer to $4 billion when you include the nearly $1 billion in debt Sinochem will assume if it takes Nufarm over.</p>
<p>That might seem generous, considering Nufarm's shares slumped all the way to $8 earlier this year. The company has endured three profit downgrades this financial year. Prices for its main product, glyphosphate, have fallen 50% since the credit crisis. That caused Nufarm to write down $63.5 million in inventory when it announced annual results yesterday.</p>
<p>But in 2007, another Chinese firm offered closer to $17 per share. That was based on a much more optimistic earnings forecast and higher glyphosphate prices. Yesterday's proposal, we reckon, is more than what you'd pay based on the company's recent financial performance.</p>
<p>But it's probably less than what you'd pay if you had a bullish outlook on the business for the next, say, ten years. As for the last question, are there more stocks like Nufarm you should know about, the answer is yes! More on them later this week.</p>
<p>Dan Denning<br />
for The Daily Reckoning Australia</p>
Similar Posts:<ul><li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/reader-mail-plus-the-race-for-arable-farm-land/2009/10/13/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday October 13, 2009">Reader Mail Plus the Race for Arable Farm Land</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/equity-premium-will-be-replaced-with-a-tangible-asset-premium/2009/07/27/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday July 27, 2009">Equity Premium Will Be Replaced With a Tangible Asset Premium</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/welcoming-holidays-with-a-beer/2008/10/31/" rel="bookmark" title="Friday October 31, 2008">Announcement: Welcoming in the Holidays With a Beer</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/obama-plans-to-do-away-with-irelands-tax-advantage/2009/05/08/" rel="bookmark" title="Friday May 8, 2009">Obama Plans to Do Away With Ireland&#8217;s Tax Advantage</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gold-is-in-a-bull-market/2009/10/15/" rel="bookmark" title="Thursday October 15, 2009">Gold is in a Bull Market</a></li>
</ul><!-- Similar Posts took 29.398 ms -->]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Geithner Ex Machina</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/geithner-ex-machina/2009/03/13/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/geithner-ex-machina/2009/03/13/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:36:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adrian Ash</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asian financial crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deus Ex Machina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic disasters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[imf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joseph Stiglitz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Geithner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world bank]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=5379</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After all, this was "the gravest global economic crisis in a half-century," as then-World Bank economist Joseph Stiglitz called it before today's global crisis showed up. So you needed the best minds, from the biggest and brightest international bodies, to jet in...survey the trouble...prescribe a solution (while signing a check)...and then jet out again, back to whichever hushed corridors they had just emptied.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>"Deus does not exist.<br />
"But if he does, He lives above me,<br />
"In the fattest largest cloud up there..."<br />
- The Sugarcubes, <em>Deus<br />
</em></p>
<p><strong>DEUS EX MACHINA</strong> has been a "rock opera" band from Italy, a punk band from Greece, a best-selling British computer game for the ZX Spectrum, a character in <em>The Matrix</em> movies (apparently) and also a top-selling video game this decade.</p>
<p>Mixing shoot-em-up with role-play, <em>Deus Ex</em> also features a lot of that speaker-rattling background rumble which is apparently how all dystopian futures will sound when the space age arrives.</p>
<p>Most recently, however, <em>deus ex machina</em> has become the prayer of investors and policy-makers the world over, too. Just click your heels, Dorothy! If only someone (or something) now watching from outside this mess would just step in and fix things.</p>
<p>Y'know, the way foreign money stepped in to save the Asian Tigers when they ran out of cash in the late Nineties?</p>
<p>This god-like visitor, free from the baggage of debt deflation everyone else seems to be stuck with – say, an inter-galactic John Pierpoint Morgan perhaps – could then vanish again...leaving his money behind, of course...and let us all get back to turning a buck from credit and debt, speculation and lending.</p>
<p>"The financial disasters became economic disasters in the countries concerned," wrote a Harvard economics professor two years after the <a href="http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/cooper/files/asiacris.pdf">Asian Crisis</a> began. "But fortunately from a global point of view they were like a big recession in Italy, difficult but manageable."</p>
<p>Whereas today?</p>
<p>All the obvious supra-national do-gooders rushed into Asia in 1997. The IMF, the World Bank, the US Treasury...Hundreds of advisors and consultants worked on their tans as they worked on a rescue, gathering pool-side at the Bangkok, Seoul and Jakarta Hiltons.</p>
<p>After all, this was "the gravest global economic crisis in a half-century," as then-World Bank economist <a href="http://www.mindfully.org/WTO/Joseph-Stiglitz-IMF17apr00.htm">Joseph Stiglitz</a> called it before today's global crisis showed up. So you needed the best minds, from the biggest and brightest international bodies, to jet in...survey the trouble...prescribe a solution (while signing a check)...and then jet out again, back to whichever hushed corridors they had just emptied.</p>
<p>Whereas today?</p>
<p>Originally from the Latin – and meaning "god from the machine" – the phrase <em>deus ex machina</em> was coined by arts critic Horace to describe a plot twist, first wheeled out by the Ancient Greek playwrights. This "improbable contrivance" (as Aristotle had sneered) saw a god suddenly arrive on the stage – whether dropped by a crane or jumping up through a trap-door – whenever a play was close to ending with too many loose ends for the hack-author to fix.</p>
<p>In steps the god, out goes confusion. Boy gets girl without having to slit his dad's throat or sleep with his mother. Cue applause and the after-show party.</p>
<p>Sadly, however, financial crises – let alone major debt-deflation depressions – don't mend as easy as Greek tragedy lite. But the logic's the same, or it has been whenever localized crises needed fixing before. A little over 10 years ago, for instance, cleaning up the post-bubble mess in Asia required a full scrubbing of bank-equity holders, soaked in return for a bucket of external cash that washed out the crisis before it become catastrophic.</p>
<p>Yes, it seemed catastrophic back then; "The Asian financial crisis was viewed as the worst since the Great Depression," as <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a5456f8-0d13-11de-a555-0000779fd2ac.html">Stephen Roach</a>, head of Morgan Stanley Asia, wrote in Tuesday's Financial Times. But it "depicted a squall compared with the current tsunami," he goes on. And "ironically, the seeds of the current crisis may have been sown by policies aimed at arresting the Asian crisis.</p>
<p>"Then, US authorities did everything they could to ensure that the crisis would not infect the real economy. The Fed's three emergency rate cuts in late 1998 worked like a charm. The US consumer never looked back. The personal consumption share of real GDP rose from 67% in the late 1990s to 72% in the first half of 2007. The US antidote to the Asian crisis was the greatest consumption binge in history."</p>
<p>At ground-zero too, the Asian Crisis soon vanished under the weight of cheap cash from the Fed. South Korea, for example, saw 23 of its 30 merchant banks suspended, while a $57 billion fund to support commercial deposits was pumped in by the <a href="http://www.rrojasdatabank.info/imf2.htm">International Monetary Fund</a> (37%), the World Bank (17%), the Asian Development Bank (i.e. Japan, 7%), and the major Western economies (38%).</p>
<p>In Thailand, some 56 of a total 91 non-bank financial firms were wiped out, leaving the rest to scramble for private overseas cash – cash that overseas banks were only too willing to lend in return for chunky stakes in the equity, bagging phenomenal gains as the crisis began to blow over and the next consumer and real-estate booms got underway.</p>
<p>Over in Indonesia, the central bank's own emergency funds made up just 12% of the $40bn rescue. (<em>Don't these numbers look quaint today!</em>) Eight foreign nations between them stumped up $17bn, with the various supra-national funds and advisors – all financed by other rich nations, of course – making up the bulk of the cash. In return, 16 bankrupt banks were allowed to fail in the first 12 months of the crisis, with shareholders wiped out and only "small deposits" getting compensation up to a limit worth some $1,500.</p>
<p>Why? Because "You have to make the depositors whole," as a consultant involved at the time has since explained to us here at BullionVault. Let the equity hang, in short, but defend the savers if you don't want faith in the entire money system to vanish.</p>
<p>Whereas today? In lieu of globe-trotting advisors bearing <em>deus ex machina</em> solutions, each national government is left trying both to recapitalize its banks and also defend its cash savers. Trouble is, each government's funds are precisely limited to the cash inside its own borders. We, the people, are indeed the state, and you can only tax or rip off the savers for so long before all their money is spent. But everyone else is now stuck in the same fast-sinking boat too, so there's no one stood ready to bail us all out.</p>
<p>Perhaps the Martians might help. Or failing that, maybe we'll have to ask God for a loan. Because we guess that Tim Geithner's money won't do.</p>
<p>And we guess Tim Geithner knows it won't either.</p>
<p>Adrian Ash<br />
for The Daily Reckoning Australia</p>
Similar Posts:<ul><li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/superannuation-kevin-rudd/2009/05/19/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday May 19, 2009">Is Kevin Rudd Planning to Steal Your Superannuation and Bankrupt Your Retirement?</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/geithner-and-his-toxic-asset-bailout-plan/2009/03/23/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday March 23, 2009">Geithner and His Toxic Asset Bailout Plan</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/irish-bailout-3178/2008/10/02/" rel="bookmark" title="Thursday October 2, 2008">Irish Govt Pledges Bailout, Who&#8217;s Next?</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/hsbc-reveals-days-of-the-dollar-are-numbered/2009/09/23/" rel="bookmark" title="Wednesday September 23, 2009">HSBC Reveals Days of the Dollar are Numbered</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-geithner-plan/2009/03/24/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday March 24, 2009">The Geithner Plan</a></li>
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		<title>Curtain of Debt Divides Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/curtain-of-debt-divides-europe/2009/02/23/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/curtain-of-debt-divides-europe/2009/02/23/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2009 05:41:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Denning</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lng]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[precious metals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[public debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roubini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Treasury bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world bank]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=5179</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It's looking more and more like the euro crash will come before the dollar crash. Or maybe they'll crash together. Gordon Brown hinted at something bigger and better than just a few major world currencies. He pointed out that nothing anyone's done has really worked yet. So obviously, more will have to be done...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All aboard for today's Daily Reckoning! Yes, the train is leaving the station this Monday morning. But where is it going? Gold $2,000? Collapse of the euro? Global financial Armageddon? Or miraculous recovery stimulated by far-seeing and wise politicians? Hmmn.</p>
<p>U.S. stocks headed lower early on Friday and liked it so much they kept on going. Investors can't be reassured about President Obama's plan to reduce the deficit AND increase spending. Does anyone take these kinds of plans seriously anymore?</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a curtain of debt threatens to divide Europe in two again, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick. Well, he didn't put it exactly that way. But he did say that if Eastern European banks do not get US$154 billion in recapitalisation funds from their neighbours in the West, the "crisis" would get worse.</p>
<p>Which crisis? Good question. There are so many to pick from these days. But in all seriousness, what do Gordon Brown, Angela Merkel, and Nicolas Sarkozy think they can do? Europe's banks have made bad loans in emerging markets, especially Eastern Europe. Europe's governments already have high public debt to GDP ratios. And in some places like Ireland, Spain, and the U.K. house prices are crashing.</p>
<p>It's looking more and more like the euro crash will come before the dollar crash. Or maybe they'll crash together. Gordon Brown hinted at something bigger and better than just a few major world currencies. He pointed out that nothing anyone's done has really worked yet. So obviously, more will have to be done.</p>
<p>"These are testing times," he said, while not pointing out that the test is largely being failed by policy makers who keep trying the same two things. "We've seen the biggest global fiscal stimulus that has ever been done. We've seen the biggest interest rate cut the world has ever had. Today we decided that we need to do even more than that by working together."</p>
<p>Cut interest rates? Check! Rush out government checks to people who don't pay taxes so they can spend money that's not theirs? Check! Even more? Uh...we'll check on that and get back to you.</p>
<p>Markets are clearly not convinced anyone in government knows what's going on or can fix it. Nouriel Roubini says the U.S. is in the third or fourth inning of the crisis. For you non-baseball fans, that means it's not even halfway over. If the U.S. adds another $4 to $5 trillion in debt over Obama's administration, Roubini reckons the credit rating of the United States government is going down.</p>
<p>No wonder Hillary Clinton was over in China asking the Chinese to please buy American bonds. It's a pretty sad state of affairs when the American Secretary of State has to go begging for money abroad. But hey, that's life as a debtor.</p>
<p>She told a Shanghai TV station, "'I certainly do think that the Chinese government and central bank are making a smart decision by continuing to invest in Treasury bonds. It's a safe investment. The United States has a well-deserved financial reputation."</p>
<p>Yes. You can say that again.</p>
<p>In response to all of this, gold is getting awfully popular. In Aussie dollars, the gold price has rocketed over $1,500. In the U.S., gold broke US$1,000 on Friday. It couldn't hold the line. But now its supporters are looking at $1,500 as the next strategic objective.</p>
<p>We wouldn't disagree. But judging by the number of gold-related headlines flooding our in-box, it's getting to be a pretty popular trade, at least in the newsletter industry.  The newsletter industry is not exactly main stream. And of course it's the thundering herd that's going to send gold stocks much higher as bullion prices rise. But it still wouldn't surprise us to see a correction.</p>
<p>Who knows though? Maybe we are watching the governments of the world stumble their way toward depression. At no point since the crisis began have they been able to suggest a remedy that markets liked or restored confidence. Not that we envy them confronting the massive mal-investments of a multi-trillion dollar global credit bubble.</p>
<p>But did it occur to anyone that the best thing to do is nothing? Let the banks fail. Let the businesses fail. Of course it's going to cause massive chaos, job losses, and insolvency. But isn't that where we're headed anyway?</p>
<p>Doing nothing is a kind of action. And doing nothing is something that governments haven't tried yet. They should try doing nothing to see how it goes. The result could be surprising. And it certainly won't cost A$42 billion or US$787.</p>
<p>This argument will never carry the day. We are surely headed toward more and bigger programs, more and bigger bank failures, and more and bigger moves in precious metals. On that point, gold shares have lagged bullion. But we'd expect once the gold mania really gets going with the mainstream, the shares we'll take off. That's what we're planning for in <em><a href="http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/research/osi/11r.cfm?s=E9AOK102&amp;o=[messageid]&amp;u=[memberid]&amp;l=[urlid]">Diggers and Drillers</a></em>.</p>
<p>The other good but disturbing news is the amount of play LNG is getting in the press. Another glowing report surfaced in this weekend's <em>Financial Review</em>. LNG is emerging as Asia's favourite carbon-friendly fuel. This is good for Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL). But it's the developing LNG industry in Queensland that has all the foreign energy firms circling the local waters. Kris Sayce has been all over the story in the <em><a href="http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/research/asi/12p.cfm?s=E9AAK102&amp;o=[messageid]&amp;u=[memberid]&amp;l=[urlid]">Australian Small Cap Investigator</a></em> for a few months now.</p>
<p>The hot temperatures  and strong winds have returned to Melbourne today. For all our readers in eastern Victoria, be safe. Until tomorrow.</p>
<p>Dan Denning<br />
for <em>The Daily Reckoning Australia</em></p>
Similar Posts:<ul><li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflationary-forces-reduced-by-fall-in-commodity-prices/2008/10/31/" rel="bookmark" title="Friday October 31, 2008">Fall in Commodity Prices Will Reduce Inflationary Forces</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/emerging-market-debt-europe/2008/10/27/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday October 27, 2008">Europe Faces Day of Reckoning in Emerging Market Debt</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/u-s-government-must-roll-over-3-4-trillion-in-debt-over-next-four-years/2009/11/03/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday November 3, 2009">U.S. Government Must Roll Over $3.4 Trillion in Debt Over Next Four Years</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/downfall-of-the-american-consumer/2009/03/05/" rel="bookmark" title="Thursday March 5, 2009">Downfall of the American Consumer</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/roubini-says-recession-will-continue-through-end-of-year/2009/07/20/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday July 20, 2009">Roubini Says Recession Will Continue Through End of Year</a></li>
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		<title>The World Bank Goes Nuclear on Commodities</title>
		<link>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-world-bank-goes-nuclear-on-commodities/2008/12/10/</link>
		<comments>http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/the-world-bank-goes-nuclear-on-commodities/2008/12/10/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Dec 2008 02:53:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Denning</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world bank]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/?p=4589</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you treat it as a thought experiment and ask yourself what would have to happen for the ASX to fall that much, you get some alarming possibilities. The liquidation of Oz Minerals? The dismemberment of Rio Tinto? The fall of a major investment bank or leveraged institution? Or perhaps it's something simpler: more falling prices for commodities. That's what the World Bank seems to think anyway...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sometimes you have to just stand back and admire the extremes a real bubble can produce. What you have now, as Bill explained last night at the Doomer's Ball, is the last greatest bubble of them all, the bubble in U.S. bonds. It's reaching staggering levels.</p>
<p>How do you measure these things? In yields. This, by the way, is how you'll know the bubble is popping. When that happens (bond yields rise like a rocket ship) it's going to unleash financial chaos. But for now, the bubble just keeps on getting bigger and yields on short-term U.S. bonds keep approaching-and even reaching-zero.</p>
<p>"The Treasury sold $27 billion of three-month bills yesterday at a discount rate of 0.005 percent," reports Bloomberg. It's, "the lowest since it starting auctioning the securities in 1929. The U.S. also sold $30 billion of four-week bills today at zero percent for the first time since it began selling the debt in 2001."</p>
<p>How do you think that conversation goes?</p>
<p>"Thirty billion you say? For four weeks? And you'll pay me how much interest?"</p>
<p>"Nothing."</p>
<p>"I'll take it!"</p>
<p><span id="more-4589"></span></p>
<p>"If you invested $1 million in three-month bills at today's negative discount rate of 0.01 percent, for a price of 100.002556, at maturity you would receive the par value for a loss of $25.56," reports Daniel Kruger.</p>
<p>Yes. That's how much investors currently prefer government backed bonds to equities at the moment. It implies there will be hardly any inflation at all over the next yen years. But that notion should make you spew milk through your nose as you laugh, unless you're unfamiliar with the growth in the global monetary base. If so, let us remedy that.</p>
<p align="center"><img src="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/20081210a.jpg" alt="" width="403" height="301" /></p>
<p><em>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis</em></p>
<p>You can see that in the U.S. alone the adjusted monetary base is...growing. So why isn't the increase in the monetary base showing up in the kind of inflation that would terrify bond investors and lead to a rebound in commodity prices and equities? That's another question we got last night.</p>
<p>The answer is that so far, the huge liquidity injections have been quarantined in the financial sector, mostly on bank balance sheets, or on deposits by banks at the Federal Reserve and other central banks. In other words, all the new money is going into bonds and central bank accounts, not into new business or consumer lending.</p>
<p>Put another way, the quantity of money is increasing, but its velocity is not. That's because the new money isn't getting into the hands of people who are just itching to spend it. But it will soon enough. And when it does, look for bond yields to rise and the great inflation to begin. Also, televisions and hookers.</p>
<p>"I think this will be the greatest time in my life to buy stocks at these prices. I just wish I had more capital," said one of the attendees at the Doomer's Ball last night on Southbank. We heard this sentiment time and again over the course of the evening. And there is no doubt that the valuations are good.</p>
<p>There is doubt, however, about what the Australian resource sector will look like in a world where capital is scarcer. Will it lead to a contraction in the number of viable firms? Is the credit crunch like a meteor strike that kills all the giant reptiles that fail to adapt to the new conditions? If it does, there will be a huge survivor bias favouring the stocks that remain.</p>
<p>But there was also some anxiety about further falls in stocks, especially the longer the bar was open at the Ball. One reader is forecasting another 20% fall on the ASX before the lows are in. In fact, if the All Ords reaches the 2003 lows (2,673) it's a decline of 24% from today's levels. If it overshoots that low-as markets tend to do when they correct-you're looking at a thirty percent fall from current levels.</p>
<p>If you treat it as a thought experiment and ask yourself what would have to happen for the ASX to fall that much, you get some alarming possibilities. The liquidation of Oz Minerals? The dismemberment of Rio Tinto? The fall of a major investment bank or leveraged institution?</p>
<p>Or perhaps it's something simpler: more falling prices for commodities. That's what the World Bank seems to think anyway. As reported in the FT, the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report says the commodities boom has, "come to an end." It adds that, "Over the longer run, the price of extracted commodities should fall." It reckons slower population and income growth will contribute to slower resource demand growth.</p>
<p>Naturally, this is diametrically opposed to the logic of the boom that began in 1999. Then, you had 200 years of falling real prices for tangible goods seemingly reverse itself, mostly because of growth in global population and per capita income. So which thesis is right?</p>
<p>Well you know what we think. We think the Money Migration is the long-term transfer of the world's wealth from the debt-based consumption economies of the West to the world's savers and producers, roughly in the "East." This certainly favours Aussie resources for at least a generation.</p>
<p>But the migration has been massively disrupted by the credit crisis, which is really just an epic attempt by the U.S. and other English-speaking economies to avoid their Day of Reckoning. But don't you worry. That day is coming. It's just taking longer than we originally thought. Ben Bernanke is a creative man. And he's desperate too.</p>
<p>But why don't we ask China what it thinks? After all, it's a pretty important party to this discussion. China? What do you think? Hello China. Are you there?</p>
<p>Hmm. China is not taking our calls. Maybe that's because some Chinese firms are too busy looking for ways to take advantage of the current situation by securing long-term supplies to resources at lower market prices. And maybe actions speak a lot louder than words about Chinese desire for Aussie resources.</p>
<p>"Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co., China's fourth-biggest zinc producer by output, said it agreed to acquire a 50.1 percent stake in Australian miner Perilya Ltd. through a private placement," reports Bloomberg. And Forbes reports that Chinese steel-makers are set to push for a major reduction in iron ore prices to reflect the fall in global steel prices.</p>
<p>The average price in October for a metric ton of iron ore fines, according to Forbes, was $US90.60. But Chinese steel makers reckon that with steel prices back at 1994 levels, iron ore prices should roll back to. In 1994, a metric ton of fines was US$20.40.</p>
<p>A lot has changed since 1994. Supply of ore is up. Demand is up too. But costs for resource producers are way up too. It's unlikely the steel-makers are going to get a price cut that large. And if they do, it will put some smaller ore producers under enormous pressure (even harder to with stand if you don't have access to credit).</p>
<p>Where are we then? A year ago BHP held the whip hand and chased Rio in a dream of grand ambition. Now BHP is reconsidering its strategy. Rio is reeling. And pricing power has switched back to resource consumers in China, who are eager to use the whip as well, it appears. There's been a lot of whipping going on, hasn't there? More on what it means tomorrow.</p>
<p>Finally, yes. We too saw the reports circulating that the International Monetary Fund is getting ready to dump a bunch of gold on the market. So far, we haven't found anything to substantiate them. We're looking around, and will report back on what <em><a href="%%track {http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/research/osi/11r.cfm?source=E9AOJC10&amp;o=[messageid]&amp;u=[memberid]&amp;l=[urlid]} -name {E9AOJC10}%%">Diggers and Drillers</a></em> editor Al Robinson digs up as well. Until then...</p>
<p>Dan Denning<br />
for The Daily Reckoning Australia</p>
Similar Posts:<ul><li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/chinese-steel/2008/05/07/" rel="bookmark" title="Wednesday May 7, 2008">Chinese Steel Price to Rise in Wake of Coal and Iron Price Hike</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/deutsche-bank-2/2008/08/08/" rel="bookmark" title="Friday August 8, 2008">Deutsche Bank Tells Clients to Get Out of Commodities</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/russia-resources/2008/08/12/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday August 12, 2008">Red Bear Rising: Russia&#8217;s Resource Based Geopolitical Strategy</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/new-trend-in-the-market-sell-bonds-and-buy-commodities/2009/06/09/" rel="bookmark" title="Tuesday June 9, 2009">New Trend in the Market: Sell Bonds and Buy Commodities</a></li>

<li><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/commodities-tell-us-the-world-wont-stop-turning-in-a-financial-crisis/2009/06/01/" rel="bookmark" title="Monday June 1, 2009">Commodities Tell Us the World Won&#8217;t Stop Turning in a Financial Crisis</a></li>
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