The Liquid Assets You Can No Longer Bank On

Reddit

Recession is the Solution to the Depression…

There are no more risk-free liquid assets in the market. Maybe there never were. But it’s one of those sacred cows that has never been gored before. It is now (gored, in painfully slow fashion). The dirty little secret of the bankrupt Welfare State is out: government bonds are just another liability.

The ratings agency Moody’s took it upon itself to rain on everyone’s parade yesterday. It said that the latest EU summit had failed to yield, “decisive policy measures”. It said it would review the credit ratings of 15 EU nations in the next three months. Fellow ratings agency Fitch said it expected Europe’s banking crisis to lead to, “a significant economic downturn” in 2012.

You don’t say?

Here’s a tip: the recession is the solution to the credit excess. It is the lancing of the ulcerous boil. It is the liquidation of bad debts, the reckoning for the bankers, and the justice of the markets on people who used capital poorly.

Instead we have the Interminable Intervention with the aim of more centralisation. We’ll get back to that in a moment. But meanwhile, with a downgrading of France and Germany (and the US) simply a matter of time, the bond market is a different beast now.

“Double A is the new triple A,” Raphael Gallardo at AXA Investment Managers in Paris told Bloomberg. “De facto, there are no more highly liquid, risk-free assets. It’s a dangerous problem because in a market crash, liquid AAA assets are the dam that contains the total exodus of liquidity.”

“The total exodus of liquidity” means there is nowhere safe to go, and you can’t get there anyway. If you’re invested in financial markets, there’s no real way to hedge against this. Our answer this year was simply to recommend people own fewer shares, more cash, and gold bullion (taking physical possession).

By the way, only a massive new phase of central bank money printing – quantitative easing – could avert “the total exodus of liquidity”. And even then, we’re not so sure. The central bank can buy as much of anything as it wants with new money. What it can’t do is disguise the fact that private investors are close to going on strike by refusing to buy assets in such a manipulated and unstable market.

Meanwhile the search for real assets goes on. A claim on tangible wealth is, by our reckoning, better than owning an IOU from a government. That point is certainly debateable. But as we mentioned yesterday, our colleague Dr. Alex Cowie has laid out his top six Aussie resource ideas for 2012.

Incidentally, a reader wrote in asking what Alex is a doctor of. We asked him to respond in his own words and he replied with the following:

Early on in my life, I fulfilled an ambition of graduating as a veterinarian like my father. That took five years of study at university in the UK. I worked successfully as a vet for ten years in seven different countries. This is where the doctor comes from. I use it because I like to think I’ve earned it. When it comes to being an analyst, I’ve found the scientific training, and study I had to put in to become a vet and practice were an excellent foundation for a career in finance. I suppose you could say working independently in the financial markets was my adult career ambition. As for the formal training, there’s the Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment. I’m also studying for a Masters degree in Finance on the side. I like learning and intend to make it a lifelong pursuit. What I like about the markets is that they reward results, not training. And in that respect, I’ve found that having a methodical and scientific approach to my investing has been just as valuable in financial markets as it was at the clinic.

While we’re taking reader questions and comments, here’s a few more… revolving around beer and money.

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

Dan Denning
Dan Denning examines the geopolitical and economic events that can affect your investments domestically. He raises the questions you need to answer, in order to survive financially in these turbulent times.
Reddit

Leave a Reply

4 Comments on "The Liquid Assets You Can No Longer Bank On"

Notify of
avatar
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Mick
Guest
See the pattern yet? “Stocks tumble on European worries” “Stocks up on European deal!” “Stocks tumble on European worries” “Stocks up on European deal!” “Stocks tumble on European worries” “Stocks up on European deal!” … We are being “Pumped and dumped.” Wall Street has their owned corporate media presstitutes alternate good and bad claims, driving the market up and down, timing their buys and sells to catch the peaks and valleys. Like a giant heartbeat, this cycle pumps wealth from smaller investors into the pockets of the big crooks on Wall Street. It’s a classic financial crime with a long… Read more »
Ross
Guest

The liquid assets of Australians lie where?

If banks sell deposit guaranteed covered bonds to a level of 7% how many liquid assets will be left there in a systemic crisis?

Property, we’ve done that one to death here. It’s liquidity relies on income and Australian economic incomes rely inordinately upon discretionary services – just what you don’t want to be relying upon in a liquidity crisis.

And Super, there’s liquidity there eh?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-13/unisuper-members-at-risk-of-losing-super/3729518

There would be nowhere more deliciously appropriate for the crisis to start than at the unscholarly liberal fascist hegemon and debt empire accompaniment narrative factories that are Australia’s universities.

Biker
Guest

You sound far too _gleeful_ to be a neo-marxist, Ross! ;)

Ross
Guest

Don’t like them there Marxist’s Biker, nor them Fabian Socialists; the only sweet spot I have is for them there paleo conservatives.

wpDiscuz
Letters will be edited for clarity, punctuation, spelling and length. Abusive or off-topic comments will not be posted. We will not post all comments.
If you would prefer to email the editor, you can do so by sending an email to letters@dailyreckoning.com.au